The housing market just slid into a full-blown correction

shonuff

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Providing some context to rambling nonsense in this thread and other real estate threads regarding NYC...


Well if you're going to provide context at least be genuine

Becuase in the 1920s NYC was mostly farm.land beyond the very very VERY small area of lower Manhattan that still had unpaved roads and no factories

So like most places in the world in the 1920s you had the nation move from agrarian to and industrialized economy - so.those cities built to accommodate a whole new way of finance


and in the 50s same thing - agrarian Brooklyn queens and the Bronx moved to accommodate development for tenements for workers to work.i. industry...they didn't just build to build or build to take a loss

So you really didn't prove anything ...and you certainly didn't prove that those building were built to drive down the cost of housing
 

NZA

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Well obviously it's not since they do build a lot of housing in places in the Bronx and Brooklyn and queens and the apts are out of reach for people just just earn an average salary

Building 3000 dollar a month Apts in a place that people can barely pay 2000 is not driving down the rental price of the other apts in the area

If anything its pushing up the price -since now the property owner that rents normally for 1500 will raise his rates to be in line with the newer built construction that has to return a profit on the recently built building as opposed to the one owned by the property owner that has a building that was built 20 or 40 years ago
depends on what "a lot" means. if they can still charge 3000 then that means there is still not enough supply in that area. they wouldnt build if they didnt anticipate demand at that price.
 

ogc163

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Almost every where built more everything except bombs and computers in the 20s vs 1972-2022. It was the beginning of modern infrastructure.

Even with that being the case it doesn't undermine his general point that the building decreased substantially. Further the chart still shows a big difference between the 50's and 60's vs the subsequent decades.
 

shonuff

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Even with that being the case it doesn't undermine his general point that the building decreased substantially. Further the chart still shows a big difference between the 50's and 60's vs the subsequent decades.
Ok but it increased for a reason just as it decreased for a reason

They had a lot of construction mostly becuase Robert Moses used the power of his office to destroy neighborhoods ( mostly black and almost always poor ) and build projects and highways ...he didn't do that to benefit working class people - his goal was to benefit the city and its power brokers - and AGAIN that building didn't drive DOWN the cost of housing to be "affordable "

And mind you that's the crux of the argument that NOW the solution is to build more to increase affordability to those who cant afford a place now

And. Thats simply not borne out by the reality that building IF it occurs it occurs to benefit those who already can afford to buy in this market

There's no proof at all.anywhree that building has driven down the cost so significantly that housing dropped in affordability by something like it needs to do where someome who earns the avg income can afford to pay rent or for a home .

2800 to 1200 for rent is a 40% plus drop - Show me where that has occured anywhere becuasd of increased supply - you can't

Hell ive even said show me where an increased supply has dropped affordability even 20%

Still crickets ...
 
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88m3

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here's a 2021 report
 

ogc163

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here's a 2021 report

What this report doesn't take into consideration is whether the construction is keeping up with population growth. Surely you are not implying like the other cat that this rate of building is adequate or considered a boom?

Here is a relevant paper from the Furman Center...


"A second argument raised by supply skeptics is that additions to housing supply tend to be luxury housing, but that “[t]he only increase in housing supply that will help to alleviate . . . [the] affordable housing crisis is housing that is truly affordable to low-income and workingclass people” (Aguirre, Benke, Neugebaurer & Santiago, 2016, p. 1). They reject the idea that building housing at one price point has any significant effect on the price of housing in other submarkets (Council of Community Housing Organizations, 2016). Even if they acknowledge that these units may age and filter down to lower-priced market segments over time, critics note that it will take many decades for them to do so. It is true that housing is more heterogeneous than most other goods, and that housing markets are more segmented as a result. Housing comes in many different forms, ages and sizes.

Rather than having one unified housing market, it is more accurate to think of a city as having numerous housing submarkets, each with its own demand, supply and price. It is also true that when first produced, housing tends to supply the medium- and high-end segments of a housing market, because housing is so expensive to build. Further, homes depreciate in value relatively slowly, and the direct filtering of new homes down to lower-priced submarkets therefore can take decades.

Still, although housing is heterogenous, additions to the housing stock in one submarket can fairly quickly affect prices and rents in other submarkets by alleviating competition that would otherwise be diverted to those other submarkets. Imagine a city with no new construction. As demand increases and prices or rents rise for higher-end housing, some homeseekers who would otherwise have searched in that submarket will be priced out.

They will either leave the jurisdiction altogether or turn instead to somewhat less expensive housing in the same city, increasing demand for housing in the next submarket. Unless there have been offsetting declines in demand for housing in those other submarkets, the failure of supply to respond to increased demand at the higher end will ripple through other submarkets as demand spills into these markets and increases their prices and rents."
 

88m3

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Elaborate.

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shonuff

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What this report doesn't take into consideration is whether the construction is keeping up with population growth. Surely you are not implying like the other cat that this rate of building is adequate or considered a boom?

Here is a relevant paper from the Furman Center...


"A second argument raised by supply skeptics is that additions to housing supply tend to be luxury housing, but that “[t]he only increase in housing supply that will help to alleviate . . . [the] affordable housing crisis is housing that is truly affordable to low-income and workingclass people” (Aguirre, Benke, Neugebaurer & Santiago, 2016, p. 1). They reject the idea that building housing at one price point has any significant effect on the price of housing in other submarkets (Council of Community Housing Organizations, 2016). Even if they acknowledge that these units may age and filter down to lower-priced market segments over time, critics note that it will take many decades for them to do so. It is true that housing is more heterogeneous than most other goods, and that housing markets are more segmented as a result. Housing comes in many different forms, ages and sizes.

Rather than having one unified housing market, it is more accurate to think of a city as having numerous housing submarkets, each with its own demand, supply and price. It is also true that when first produced, housing tends to supply the medium- and high-end segments of a housing market, because housing is so expensive to build. Further, homes depreciate in value relatively slowly, and the direct filtering of new homes down to lower-priced submarkets therefore can take decades.

Still, although housing is heterogenous, additions to the housing stock in one submarket can fairly quickly affect prices and rents in other submarkets by alleviating competition that would otherwise be diverted to those other submarkets. Imagine a city with no new construction. As demand increases and prices or rents rise for higher-end housing, some homeseekers who would otherwise have searched in that submarket will be priced out.

They will either leave the jurisdiction altogether or turn instead to somewhat less expensive housing in the same city, increasing demand for housing in the next submarket. Unless there have been offsetting declines in demand for housing in those other submarkets, the failure of supply to respond to increased demand at the higher end will ripple through other submarkets as demand spills into these markets and increases their prices and rents."
Bro you missing it becuase you want to prove what you believe rather than what reality dictates

Builders don't build for population growth - they build for those who can pay and who they can make a profit off of.

It doesn't profit for them to build for people who cant afford what it costs for them to build where people want to live.

Example

If they built 400k houses in 6 months in Redding PA what does that do for people that need to.live and work in the metro NY area? Nothing . It doesn't matter that the homes are cheap - noone wants to move to Reading PA even if they only work in Union NJ

To put it another way - if RE is a show at a venue it doesn't pay for them to sell tickets at a price everyone who is a fan can afford - if you're the venue you're selling the highest price you can for the best place in the venue - selling tickets for the parking lot where you can't see or hear anything is not worth anything to you as a consumer ...

But if you don't have the money to buy tickets to the show you can't see the show- thats pretty much how RE works in metro areas -

Homes are cheap in South Carolina why? Nobody young wants to fukking live there - no business is there - nothing is really there except cheap living and because nothing is there that's why its cheap

Saying that you want cheap in the most desired locale is naive -

Thats the reality - there are too many people who want to live in too small an area to accommodate them. If any room.is gonna be made for them.it will be at the rate thats can make the best profit for the least investment .so that means either a slight price increase or a flattening of prices for thats that ALREADY can afford to get in.
 

Rice N Beans

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"A second argument raised by supply skeptics is that additions to housing supply tend to be luxury housing, but that “[t]he only increase in housing supply that will help to alleviate . . . [the] affordable housing crisis is housing that is truly affordable to low-income and working class people”

This is the big front-facing problem in Chicagoland. Nearly every new unit is luxury with no regulation in place to encourage affordability or discourage price gouging.

They need to prioritize building permits for those corps that work to keep sane rents.
 

Pressure

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This is the big front-facing problem in Chicagoland. Nearly every new unit is luxury with no regulation in place to encourage affordability or discourage price gouging.

They need to prioritize building permits for those corps that work to keep sane rents.
I believe his position is that building luxury units will eventually increase the supply of affordable units due to supply and demand.
 
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