The Horn of Africa Current Events Thread

[Anhur]

Turkey is becoming increasingly isolated geopolitically so I'm not sure its even wise to rely solely on them at this point

Can't put all our eggs in the turkey/Qatar basket.

I understand that but it would be a very bad look if we turn our backs on the country that saved us from 2 disastrous famines.
UAE and Saudi Arabia aren't better alternatives than Turkey. Turkey is a member of NATO and it is also developing ties with Russia and China.

The economies of UAE and Saudi Arabia are also not doing well.

Saudi Aramco international share sale might never happen: Kemp

UAE economic challenges to persist in 2018

 

[thatrapsfan]

Strategically this is a good move. It's better than having the country/region torn to pieces by different allegiances. It will be interesting to see how the government manages its ties with
Qatar/Turkey

Saudi/UAE already back some of the federal States as well as Ethiopia and Eritrea.

I foresee fewer attacks by Shabaab in the future as well (if the rumors of Saudi backing are true)

If it means the FGS can improve ties with the regional states, its a good thing in the long run. Saudi didnt cut off ties with Somalia though, they resumed provide direct budgetary support last year. Theyre still the biggest bilateral donor to the FGS. The EU/Americans donate their money through multilateral channels or to AMISOM, while a lot of Turkey's support is in the form of major development projects, rather than cash like the Saudis.

AlShabab does not get support from Saudi. It is clear how they sustain themselves - local taxation and extortion. In fact they probably still tax more efficiently than the FGS. Besides all the "zakat" they get from businesses and pastoralists, they also continue to get taxes through checkpoints in the South. They even get money from extortion in places outside of their direct control, like Bossaso.

Somalia had good relations with Saudi and the UAE up till the Gulf Crisis and it had no impact on AlShabab's operational ability. They'll continue to be able to keep up their attacks until the FGS and the regional states are able to get on the same page politically and construct a sustainable fighting force. In other words, not anytime soon

 

[thatrapsfan]

I understand that but it would be a very bad look if we turn our backs on the country that saved us from 2 disastrous famines.
UAE and Saudi Arabia aren't better alternatives than Turkey. Turkey is a member of NATO and it is also developing ties with Russia and China.

The economies of UAE and Saudi Arabia are also not doing well.

Saudi Aramco international share sale might never happen: Kemp

UAE economic challenges to persist in 2018

I dont see Somalia cutting off ties with Turkey in exchange for reconciliating with the UAE. Seriously doubt thats on the table. More likely will be a return to the pre Gulf Crisis status quo.

 

[Moody]

I understand that but it would be a very bad look if we turn our backs on the country that saved us from 2 disastrous famines.
UAE and Saudi Arabia aren't better alternatives than Turkey. Turkey is a member of NATO and it is also developing ties with Russia and China.

The economies of UAE and Saudi Arabia are also not doing well.

Saudi Aramco international share sale might never happen: Kemp

UAE economic challenges to persist in 2018

Saudi Arabia diversifies their economic landscape ever so slightly better than the UAE. They're still waiting for their stimulus package to have a real impact, and pushing that outlook to 2019 ain't good for the UAE.

I also don't quite remember the exact numbers but they funneled some tens of billions of dollars back in to their economy. Whatever spark they're looking for I don't think they have the means to reach it at least not for the remainder of 2018.

 

[Moody]

I dont see Somalia cutting off ties with Turkey in exchange for reconciliating with the UAE. Seriously doubt thats on the table. More likely will be a return to the pre Gulf Crisis status quo.

Cutting off an ancient diplomatic relationship in a fully globalized world doesn't even seem feasible atm. I would be surprised if they cut ties too...

 

[thatrapsfan]

Huge OLF demonstrations in Addis this weekend to mark the return of the armed front from Eritrea. Thousands of Oromos crossed over from the Oromia region and there were apparently street clashes throughout the city and some killings on the outskirts (alleged to be Oromos killing Amharas). Ethiopia seems like it may be on the precipice of either something very bad or good. But tons of uncertainity

New Oromo mayor of Addis trying to show concern. Comments filled with anger though









Meanwhile Saudi seems to be indirectly competing with the UAE as a faciliator of reconciliation:





and here's a photo of Abdi Iley in cuffs



Interesting times in the Horn.


@JDH @Karb @2Quik4UHoes @The Odum of Ala Igbo

 

[JDH]

Huge OLF demonstrations in Addis this weekend to mark the return of the armed front from Eritrea. Thousands of Oromos crossed over from the Oromia region and there were apparently street clashes throughout the city and some killings on the outskirts (alleged to be Oromos killing Amharas). Ethiopia seems like it may be on the precipice of either something very bad or good. But tons of uncertainity

New Oromo mayor of Addis trying to show concern. Comments filled with anger though









Meanwhile Saudi seems to be indirectly competing with the UAE as a faciliator of reconciliation:





and here's a photo of Abdi Iley in cuffs



Interesting times in the Horn.


@JDH @Karb @2Quik4UHoes @The Odum of Ala Igbo

Yes a lot of people got killed and even more displaced. Today there has been big demonstrations in Addis to condemn the attacks



It was only so long this faux Oromo-Amhara allegiance could last It worked when they had a common enemy in Woyane but now that they are gone they have started to turn on each other.

The battle for Finfine/Addis Ababa

And lmao at that pic of abdi iley. Brehs will Somalia ever unite?

 

[thatrapsfan]

Yes a lot of people got killed and even more displaced. Today there has been big demonstrations in Addis to condemn the attacks



It was only so long this faux Oromo-Amhara allegiance could last It worked when they had a common enemy in Woyane but now that they are gone they have started to turn on each other.

The battle for Finfine/Addis Ababa

And lmao at that pic of abdi iley. Brehs will Somalia ever unite?

Thats a lot of people. The next stage of the conflict is already set in motion with the main battle being between the Amharas and Oromos ( and with the less central, but relevant battles taking place all over the periphery).


The other day a UNHCR report said Ethiopia has the highest number of displaced people in the world whats out of sight is likely even worse.

 

[2Quik4UHoes]

Smfh these idiots better control themselves my moms out there right now....

It’s definitely gonna go either way. For all these idiots subscribing to ethnic based politics there are many Ethiopians returning and attempting to bring more than dollars and infrastructure. This country needs education more than anything else, the cult worship of these empty headed “intellectuals” is detrimental to the future of the nation.

I’ll keep saying it, unless Abiy dissolves the ethnic based political system I won’t believe he’s anything more than the same bullshyt.

 

[JDH]

Smfh these idiots better control themselves my moms out there right now....

It’s definitely gonna go either way. For all these idiots subscribing to ethnic based politics there are many Ethiopians returning and attempting to bring more than dollars and infrastructure. This country needs education more than anything else, the cult worship of these empty headed “intellectuals” is detrimental to the future of the nation.

I’ll keep saying it, unless Abiy dissolves the ethnic based political system I won’t believe he’s anything more than the same bullshyt.

Would you support a united Ethiopia if it united under the Oromo language and the Oromo flag?

 

[2Quik4UHoes]

Would you support a united Ethiopia if it united under the Oromo language and the Oromo flag?

It wouldn’t be Ethiopia at that point it’d be a jumbo sized Oromiya.

 

[JDH]

It wouldn’t be Ethiopia at that point it’d be a jumbo sized Oromiya.

Not saying they are right but that is kinda the justification Oromos are using, saying current Ethiopia is "a jumbo sized Amhara" and "Ethiopianism" is just a codeword for adopting to amhara culture and suppressing your own tribe/culture/history. Jawar Mohamed fueling the fire calling the inhabitants of Addis "Menelik settlers". Since Addis is in the Oromo region they are saying they have historic claim to it. Are you amhara?

 

[2Quik4UHoes]

Not saying they are right but that is kinda the justification Oromos are using, saying current Ethiopia is "a jumbo sized Amhara" and "Ethiopianism" is just a codeword for adopting to amhara culture and suppressing your own tribe/culture/history. Jawar Mohamed fueling the fire calling the inhabitants of Addis "Menelik settlers". Since Addis is in the Oromo region they are saying they have historic claim to it. Are you amhara?

I’m mostly Amhara but I also have Oromo and Eritrean ancestry.

If language is the only point of contention then that’s a silly reason to raise so much hell. To say Ethiopianism is Amhara Assimilation ignores the acknowledgements made to the non-Amhara contributors of Ethiopian Culture at large. I agree that Ethiopianism needs some redefining and even deeper defining but to me it’s impractical for Oromos to want the whole country to speak its language and adopt its flag since Amharic was the lingua franca for so long that it’s the one common language other than English that everyone can use to communicate.

Moreover, to argue that Oromos have always had a claim on Addis ignores the fact that Oromos themselves migrated to that region from the south and it was already a part of the Ethiopian Empire prior to their arrival. In fact, the Oromo migration coincided with the Ahmed Gragn invasion that nearly destroyed Ethiopia.

I’m not saying that the Oromo people and other groups haven’t been wronged or that there aren’t real issues that need to be resolved. But to be against this government yet subscribe to its most destructive trait makes then no different in my eyes. When the arbinoch fought Il Duce’s troops in guerilla warfare it wasn’t for any particular tribe but for the whole nation. The greater issue at hand is politics and governance in Ethiopia. Rather than arguing on the position of principles it’s arguments over tribe.

shyts shameful to me.

 

[JDH]

I’m mostly Amhara but I also have Oromo and Eritrean ancestry.

If language is the only point of contention then that’s a silly reason to raise so much hell. To say Ethiopianism is Amhara Assimilation ignores the acknowledgements made to the contributors of Ethiopian Culture at large. I agree that Ethiopianism needs some redefining and even deeper defining but to me it’s impractical for Oromos to want the whole country to speak its language and adopt its flag since Amharic was the lingua franca for so long that it’s the one common language other than English that everyone can use to communicate.

Moreover, to argue that Oromos have always had a claim on Addis ignores the fact that Oromos themselves migrated to that region from the south and it was already a part of the Ethiopian Empire prior to their arrival. In fact, the Oromo migration coincided with the Ahmed Gragn invasion that nearly destroyed Ethiopia.

I’m not saying that the Oromo people and other groups haven’t been wronged or that there aren’t real issues that need to be resolved. But to be against this government yet subscribe to its most destructive trait makes then no different in my eyes. When the arbinoch fought Il Duce’s troops in guerilla warfare it wasn’t for any particular tribe but for the whole nation. The greater issue at hand is politics and governance in Ethiopia. Rather than arguing on the position of principles it’s arguments over tribe.

shyts shameful to me.

TPLF sure knew what they were doing when they divided the country into ethnic regions pitting people against each other I'm not sure if there is any going back now.

What eritrean tribe are you

 

[2Quik4UHoes]

TPLF sure knew what they were doing when they divided the country into ethnic regions pitting people against each other I'm not sure if there is any going back now.

What eritrean tribe are you

Absolutely, my only wonder is if Meles did this knowingly or if he honestly wanted groups to have a chance at managing their own affairs. I think the former. Whether it can be scaled back depends on Abiy. I’m interested to see just how he resolved these tensions.

Akele Guzay on my moms side. They moved to Addis and helped build up the Piassa Neighborhood in the city.