Basically the War on Terror has basically just turned into the War on Drugs. Money being spent but the core of the problem not being solved. The Military just replaced the Policemen, and the Afghans and Black community are the ones that suffer the most.
The only effective tactic in these wars is the “Mow the lawn” strategy. Kill a couple militants every month or so, do a drug raid and make arrests etc. You show the public that something is being done, but never truly gets to solving as to what makes terrorist/drug dealers
With Kandahar already fallen, Kabul will mostly likely be surrounded first and then besieged until they surrender. If you know anyone in that region I suggest you tell them to run faaaaar away.
That’s not how it works lol. I get the analogy you’re trying to make, though. The Taliban/haqqani are what we used to call mujahideen.
Before the Russians came a lot of them used to be the people that made up Afghanistan’s, police, army, Air Force, etc. after the Russians left many were dead. Many members grew up during the war and it wasn’t exactly the same group. They turned to any and all organized crime and used the country as a trap house.
They are a very large, trained, military force because of lessons passed down through member lineage. They fight very well, train regularly, and used military equipment and tactics. The real ones are so skilled and know how to teach those skills. That’s why it’s often over exaggerated that the CIA made them what they are. They are just experienced. Over time the members continued to change but they remain a huge military that doubles as a cartel like FARC but bigger.
We don’t just sit around and clip a few members. We ambush each other, we raid each other, both sides patrol and fight after contact. They are good at using reconnaissance to plan attacks that usually turn into nasty battles. In between all this, the IED’s, and then assassinating other afghans/Pakistanis intelligence is gathered through biometrics, chasing money, local info that local units act on To capture some of them or those that help wash money. They don’t always go easy and they can’t win that fight so they die in fights. It’s more Vietnam than narcos. Scores of these dudes die everyday for visibility (making it look hopeless to people watching it on TV here in the US).
They do what they do to eventually take back the country and start making massive arms and dope deals. They don’t care if you want to get to the root of how they got there. They’ll still kidnap you and kill you if they can’t get a good ransom for you, and they were like that before the US invasion.
You are correct in that we can help the locals who do little shyt like plant IED’s for them or help smuggle in weapons/smuggle out cash. The ones that kidnap girls or women to be trafficked in Pakistan don’t get that help though. They depend on the little money they get for a meager living. There were already pretty effective programs that got them jobs and or cash and it weakened the Taliban a lot, in our AO, because they had to start doing a lot of little shyt themselves.