If you wait until there is "proof" a business model can succeed you're basically Paramount+ or Peacock trying to jump into Netflix's space. You're GM or Ford trying to combat Tesla. You'll be one of the late to the game players playing from behind who is unlikely to ever catch up. You acting like first mover's advantage isn't real. When you define the terms of a category to suit your strength and your competition responds to you it puts them at a disadvantage.
Sony can't switch to a Game Pass model overnight. In order for such a model to work the types of games you release and the pace you develop them at has to adjust. Microsoft has been scaling Game Pass for years and has many years to go. A service like Game Pass is very capital intensive. They bought a while major publisher holding company (ZeniMax) doing this. Also such a service is likely to be unprofitable for a long time in the customer acquisition phase.
You see you keep comparing different industries which are no where near the gamepass model as well as the current reality. This is the reality…
Gaming content is the number one reason whether or not your subscription fails. Sonys content easily dwarves Microsoft’s content.
Sony already has a subscription army of close to 60m
now. Current Paying customers, not future customers. These customers are not going anywhere and they’re certainly not going to abandon Sony and join gamepass.
If let’s imagine two years down the line gamepass sudden,y becomes profitable and it has about 40m subscribers(guess) Sonys subscriber numbers would have guessing about 70m what’s stopping them from overnight becoming a gamepass type subscription by switching?
You act like it’s too late for Sony and they’ll be playing catch-up like others are now trying to catch up to Netflix, when they already have the two things now needed for a game subscription to be successful. The content and the subscribers.