I was part of a republican team that won yesterday, and the candidate won in a heavily democrat represented area.
I have some thoughts about why he/she won.
1) The candidate is a fiscal conservative but definitely social moderate. However, he/she believes in some very core conservative social issues like the second amendment. So he was able to keep the core conservatives, but didn't scare away the democrats.
2)He/she isn't a white guy, and I think that made a world of difference. There are just too many non-whites in his district. during the primary, all the white republicans lost.
3) we ran a good. clean and disciplined campaign, and I think people appreciate that. We also worked really hard, so hopefully that also made a difference.
I think people in the blue areas won't vote republican because of that "old white guy" image, and the fact that they just don't feel comfortable with the "backwards" social stances of the typical Mid-western repub. The religious right may have been an asset before, but I don't think that catering to them is going to work anymore. I don't think gay bashing or pressing the anti-weed issue is going to help the Repubs either.
And the Repubs are going to have to start bringing in the libertarians. They got third place in most of the areas that I looked at, and they got third place in the battleground states. The candidate that I worked for was endorsed by the Repubs and the libertarians. They made an alliance to help him/her. I think that definitely helped. In all these close elections, The Repubs can't afford lose 1 to 2% of the vote.