Shaduer’s NFL Projection makes no sense

[gtj1982]

What don’t you understand about this being a QB obsessed league and Sanders being one of the top college QBs in the draft? Doesn’t matter if you feel other QBs were in past drafts he’s in this draft and his stock will be judge relative to his peers.

 

[SubZeroDegrees]

I don't like none of the QBs in this class

Weak as hell. No one really wow me like Arch Manning or LaNorris Sellers. 2026 draft is better for QBs.

 

[Rigby.]

It’s just a rough draft overall for QBs tbh. I don’t get the point of taking a Shedeur high personally. Even though his OL was terrible his first year, it wasn’t that bad the second time around. He isn’t great at handling pressure. I don’t think you can be a limited athlete, slow trigger, meh arm and not great at handling pressure

 

[BigMoneyGrip]

Some of this is opinion but I’m gonna stick to mostly numbers. QBR is dope bc you can’t juke the stats. It’s largely independent of your supporting cast being elite/subpar. Shaduer has a 77 QBR. 16th in the nation. Last year he was at 63. Good for 57th….

I browsed the last 10 years. 1) No #1 pick had a QBR under 85. 2) No more then 2 or 3 first round QBs under 80. 3) Most if not all eventual NFL QBs put together 2 good years QBR-wise. None had a season as low as 63.

For comparison sake, Top QBR this year: Cam Ward- 88. 2023: #1 Jaden Daniels 95.7. #2 Bo Nix 91. 2022 top 5 QBR: Jaden Daniels, Hendon hooker, CJ Stroud, Bo Nix, Caleb. Notable final year QBR recent QBs:

Spoiler

Stroud (jr year) 91
Bryce young-87
Mac jones- 96
Fields- 91
Aidan Occonell- 84
Matt coral- 88
Zach Wilson- 88
Kyle Trask- 88
Burrow- 94
Tua- 94
Hurts- 90
Lawrence-87
Kyler-95
Haskins- 84
Drew Lock-82
Baker mayfield-91
Darnold- 86
Lamar- 84
Watson- 84
Mahomes- 83
Blake Bortles- 79
Drake Maye- 77

Included eventual busts just to hammer home that even busts passed the threshold of college QBR. The takeaway isnt that if you have a high college QBR you’re gonna be a high level NFL QBR. It’s that if you’re a high level NFL QB—-you absolutely had a high college QBR. And if you didn’t—-say Mahomes or Maye—-you are an upside projection with rare arm talent or athleticism. Shaduer has neither. Shaduer is a pocket passer withOUT rare arm talent. So his comp should be with recent pocket passers in this vein; Dwayne Haskins, Mac jones, Teddy bridgewater, etc. All projected as first round talent sure but not #1 picks, and barely top 10 if that

But I would be surprised if scouts don’t level set. It may seem like a debate now, but once they put on the tape Cam Ward is absolutely going first. And don’t be suprised if teams needing QBs opt for vets and Shaduer ‘slides’. In b4 ‘hate’ and ‘eye test’

It makes no since because he’s black that’s why and anytime a black qb is projected to be drafted in the first round especially top 10 these pundits and team scouts make every fukkin excuse why they shouldn’t draft them…

You the giants ain’t taking no black QB even if he makes sense too

 

[obarth]

I ain't read shyt, but I'm just remembering the opinions when the QBR stat was created

 

[Gil Scott-Heroin]

Some of this is opinion but I’m gonna stick to mostly numbers. QBR is dope bc you can’t juke the stats. It’s largely independent of your supporting cast being elite/subpar. Shaduer has a 77 QBR. 16th in the nation. Last year he was at 63. Good for 57th….

I browsed the last 10 years. 1) No #1 pick had a QBR under 85. 2) No more then 2 or 3 first round QBs under 80. 3) Most if not all eventual NFL QBs put together 2 good years QBR-wise. None had a season as low as 63.

For comparison sake, Top QBR this year: Cam Ward- 88. 2023: #1 Jaden Daniels 95.7. #2 Bo Nix 91. 2022 top 5 QBR: Jaden Daniels, Hendon hooker, CJ Stroud, Bo Nix, Caleb. Notable final year QBR recent QBs:

Spoiler

Stroud (jr year) 91
Bryce young-87
Mac jones- 96
Fields- 91
Aidan Occonell- 84
Matt coral- 88
Zach Wilson- 88
Kyle Trask- 88
Burrow- 94
Tua- 94
Hurts- 90
Lawrence-87
Kyler-95
Haskins- 84
Drew Lock-82
Baker mayfield-91
Darnold- 86
Lamar- 84
Watson- 84
Mahomes- 83
Blake Bortles- 79
Drake Maye- 77

Included eventual busts just to hammer home that even busts passed the threshold of college QBR. The takeaway isnt that if you have a high college QBR you’re gonna be a high level NFL QBR. It’s that if you’re a high level NFL QB—-you absolutely had a high college QBR. And if you didn’t—-say Mahomes or Maye—-you are an upside projection with rare arm talent or athleticism. Shaduer has neither. Shaduer is a pocket passer withOUT rare arm talent. So his comp should be with recent pocket passers in this vein; Dwayne Haskins, Mac jones, Teddy bridgewater, etc. All projected as first round talent sure but not #1 picks, and barely top 10 if that

But I would be surprised if scouts don’t level set. It may seem like a debate now, but once they put on the tape Cam Ward is absolutely going first. And don’t be suprised if teams needing QBs opt for vets and Shaduer ‘slides’. In b4 ‘hate’ and ‘eye test’

QBR is not dope. It’s a nonsense stat with a lot of unknown quantifiers worked into its formula. I don’t know why anyone could possibly revolve their argument around a rather meaningless stat given that.

There are many things to be skeptical over regarding Shedeur’s transition into the league, but QBR isn’t one of them.

 

[CarltonJunior]

Shadeur is a pure pocket passer who doesn't really have a strong arm. He has a good arm its just not a laser

He doesn't really move well either


We'll see where he goes though

Yep, for him to exceed he'll need to be in the Manning/Brady school of pre-snap reads and audibles. Defense will need to be read quickly, accurately and that ball gotta be out in less than 3/4 seconds

 

[IsThatBrothaMouzone?]

I’ve heard Joe Burrow as a comparison.. and I actually think his ceiling is somewhere around there. Which is a massive W

He’s gotten better every year he’s been a QB, so the progress is in a positive direction

He has things to work on, but the tools are there.

His arm strength isn’t the best, and his deep ball accuracy is hit or miss. His awareness around the pocket is both elite, and a detriment in that he can take sacks he shouldn’t

He’s the #1 QB in this draft and I don’t think that’s a tough call at all

Also gotta add that he's played with less talent outside of Travis. His guys are solid but definitely not on the level of what Burrow, Haskins, Mac Jones, Tua etc., had in college. Put those guys on CU in 2023 or 2024...and I doubt they look any better, and probably look quite a bit worse.

This is the one reason why I'm cautiously optimistic on breh. Go back and look at a lot of the best QBs in history. They usually played for decent/ok teams and showed potential. It's only been in modern times where all these good/great QBs just happened to be playing at powerhouse schools. SMU with Shedeur might still be playing (no offense to the breh Kevin Jennings).

Issue for Shedeur is that the brash shyt that his pops did.....that doesn't work as well for (Black) QBs. It's expected for WR/CB to be "out there" but GM's want their QBs to be "company men." You can get away with bullshyt once you start winning rings BUT NOT before. He gotta show up at the Combine because scouts are going to want to pick his brain apart. I think he does well on the white board talking football....but they will want to dig into his character. You already know they gon ask him about calling out his entire o-line in '23. He better be prepared to own that shyt.

 

[CrimsonTider]

Weak as hell. No one really wow me like Arch Manning or LaNorris Sellers. 2026 draft is better for QBs.

Those guys aren’t impressive either

 

[threattonature]

Exactly. We’ve seen this plenty times before.

Will Levis and Malik Willis immediately come to mind. Media and fans had them as surefire top 10 picks the year before, the offseason, during the year, and even into the the draft process. Scouts just sat back quiet, knowing they weren’t close to that. Then people get ‘surprised’ on draft day

I’d be shocked if Shaduer’s stock isn’t corrected the same way. And I can’t wait until Chris Simms digs into that tape and ranks him as the 5th best QB in the class and people who’ve never seen a all-22 go apeshyt

Wasn't the same thing said about Bo Nix and Penix last year, and hell people were even laughing at the thought of McCarthy going in the 1st round and yet QB needy teams drafted them. Basically we as fans have no idea what these scouts are thinking and you going so hard that he won't be a top pick is just as dumb as people swearing they will.

 

[Braman]

Wasn't the same thing said about Bo Nix and Penix last year, and hell people were even laughing at the thought of McCarthy going in the 1st round and yet QB needy teams drafted them. Basically we as fans have no idea what these scouts are thinking and you going so hard that he won't be a top pick is just as dumb as people swearing they will.

That’s what I just said

Nix, Penix, and McCarthy were seen as mid prospects by media and fans. Shaduer is seen as a top pick, by media and fans. The scouts dont fix media narratives. So we will have no idea what THEY think until they have time to watch all the film which is after the season, around senior bowl and combine.

And based on Shaduer vaulting up out of nowhere , and based on the historical numbers, im confident the scouts will have a vastly different projection for Shaduer than media and fans. Ward and perhaps Milroe will go ahead of him

 

[Trojan 24]

That’s what I just said

Nix, Penix, and McCarthy were seen as mid prospects by media and fans. Shaduer is seen as a top pick, by media and fans. The scouts dont fix media narratives. So we will have no idea what THEY think until they have time to watch all the film which is after the season, around senior bowl and combine.

And based on Shaduer vaulting up out of nowhere , and based on the historical numbers, im confident the scouts will have a vastly different projection for Shaduer than media and fans. Ward and perhaps Milroe will go ahead of him

It's hilarious how Prime and his fans keep talking about how Sheduer's last name brings all the hate when in reality it's propping him up. Brehs like Booger McFarland were saying Sheduer was the best QB in college even last year

 

[Braman]

Issue for Shedeur is that the brash shyt that his pops did.....that doesn't work as well for (Black) QBs. It's expected for WR/CB to be "out there" but GM's want their QBs to be "company men." You can get away with bullshyt once you start winning rings BUT NOT before.

Agreed but let’s not put that all on Deion. Shaduer got a lil cockiness to him too. Some defiance, delusion. Anything negative about me you’re a hater. Could be a bad omen. And again throwing the o-line under the bus is a major character red flag along those lines

Also all of that isn’t just a exec issue. The dynamic of a lockerroom is blue collar, players gravitate toward certain personality types and despise others. Look how Jaylon Johnson came at Caleb before he even played a down ‘don’t come in here with all that Hollywood shyt’

 

[klientel]

If he turns out to be a Brock Purdy that’s pretty good. Especially since Purdy is about to cash in.

He could be a capable, mostly efficient QB who can excel with the right pieces around him. The only issue is the team that likely drafts him probably won’t be able to surround him with the right pieces.

The Burrow comp is goofy. Burrow was clearly the best QB in the country during his run and did it against the best competition in college football. There were zero questions or concerns about him. Shedeur has questions surrounding literally every aspect of his game

The fact that this thread was even made is telling.

Mobility
Arm Strength
Intermediate to Deep Accuracy
Awareness
Level of competition

All question marks or concerns

 

[Deafheaven]

Agreed but let’s not put that all on Deion. Shaduer got a lil cockiness to him too. Some defiance, delusion. Everybody is a hater. Could be a bad omen

Also all of that isn’t just a exec issue. The dynamic of a lockerroom is blue collar, players gravitate toward certain personality types and despise others. Look how Jaylon Johnson came at Caleb before he even played a down ‘don’t come in here with all that Hollywood shyt’

Ironically Caleb has been the least problematic and hollywood person on that whole team this year

All the vets crashed out several times this season.