Shaduer’s NFL Projection makes no sense

[Braman]

Some of this is opinion but I’m gonna stick to mostly numbers. QBR is dope bc you can’t juke the stats. It’s largely independent of your supporting cast being elite/subpar. Shaduer has a 77 QBR. 16th in the nation. Last year he was at 63. Good for 57th….

I browsed the last 10 years. 1) No #1 pick had a QBR under 85. 2) No more then 2 or 3 first round QBs under 80. 3) Most if not all eventual NFL QBs put together 2 good years QBR-wise. None had a season as low as 63.

For comparison sake, Top QBR this year: Cam Ward- 88. 2023: #1 Jaden Daniels 95.7. #2 Bo Nix 91. 2022 top 5 QBR: Jaden Daniels, Hendon hooker, CJ Stroud, Bo Nix, Caleb. Notable final year QBR recent QBs:

Spoiler

Stroud (jr year) 91
Bryce young-87
Mac jones- 96
Fields- 91
Aidan Occonell- 84
Matt coral- 88
Zach Wilson- 88
Kyle Trask- 88
Burrow- 94
Tua- 94
Hurts- 90
Lawrence-87
Kyler-95
Haskins- 84
Drew Lock-82
Baker mayfield-91
Darnold- 86
Lamar- 84
Watson- 84
Mahomes- 83
Blake Bortles- 79
Drake Maye- 77

Included eventual busts just to hammer home that even busts passed the threshold of college QBR. The takeaway isnt that if you have a high college QBR you’re gonna be a high level NFL QBR. It’s that if you’re a high level NFL QB—-you absolutely had a high college QBR. And if you didn’t—-say Mahomes or Maye—-you are an upside projection with rare arm talent or athleticism. Shaduer has neither. Shaduer is a pocket passer withOUT rare arm talent. So his comp should be with recent pocket passers in this vein; Dwayne Haskins, Mac jones, Teddy bridgewater, etc. All projected as first round talent sure but not #1 picks, and barely top 10 if that

But I would be surprised if scouts don’t level set. It may seem like a debate now, but once they put on the tape Cam Ward is absolutely going first. And don’t be suprised if teams needing QBs opt for vets and Shaduer ‘slides’. In b4 ‘hate’ and ‘eye test’

 

[jaydawg08]

I’ve heard Joe Burrow as a comparison.. and I actually think his ceiling is somewhere around there. Which is a massive W

He’s gotten better every year he’s been a QB, so the progress is in a positive direction

He has things to work on, but the tools are there.

His arm strength isn’t the best, and his deep ball accuracy is hit or miss. His awareness around the pocket is both elite, and a detriment in that he can take sacks he shouldn’t

He’s the #1 QB in this draft and I don’t think that’s a tough call at all

 

[Braman]

I’ve heard Joe Burrow as a comparison.. and I actually think his ceiling is somewhere around there. Which is a massive W

He’s gotten better every year he’s been a QB, so the progress is in a positive direction

He has things to work on, but the tools are there.

His arm strength isn’t the best, and his deep ball accuracy is hit or miss. His awareness around the pocket is both elite, and a detriment in that he can take sacks he shouldn’t

He’s the #1 QB in this draft and I don’t think that’s a tough call at all

Based on what?

And that’s thr point of providing statistical precedent. The numbers don’t support that at ALL

 

[klientel]

I’ve heard Joe Burrow as a comparison.. and I actually think his ceiling is somewhere around there. Which is a massive W

He’s gotten better every year he’s been a QB, so the progress is in a positive direction

He has things to work on, but the tools are there.

His arm strength isn’t the best, and his deep ball accuracy is hit or miss. His awareness around the pocket is both elite, and a detriment in that he can take sacks he shouldn’t

He’s the #1 QB in this draft and I don’t think that’s a tough call at all

How you gonna bring up a Burrow comp, one of the most accurate and efficient college QBs ever, especially with the deep ball....and then say Shedeur ain't that accurate a few lines later

 

[Karume]

Mobile quarterbacks who excel with their legs often receive higher QBR scores, which can skew comparisons with traditional pocket passers who lack rushing stats.

 

[Trav]

In.

 

[thelonious21]

I think he's a rich man's Tua..

 

[Braman]

Mobile quarterbacks who excel with their legs often receive higher QBR scores, which can skew comparisons with traditional pocket passers who lack rushing stats.

There’s plenty of non-mobile QBs listed. That’s no excuse

 

[jaydawg08]

How you gonna bring up a Burrow comp, one of the most accurate and efficient college QBs ever, especially with the deep ball....and then say Shedeur ain't that accurate a few lines later

Because when you draw a comparison, not everything is going to be 100% accurate but you’re looking for CEILING. It’s important to read breh.

What’s the “best case scenario” for Sanders, and that typically is Burrow as a comparison

Come on now man.. idk why you highlight certain portions when the words are right in front of you

But more importantly Sanders is very accurate in the short to intermediate routes.. his deep ball needs work tho

 

[jaydawg08]

Based on what?

And that’s thr point of providing statistical precedent. The numbers don’t support that at ALL

A semi mobile QB who has the potential to use the pocket to create time, while not having an elite arm but being accurate in the short to intermediate routes

Do yall even watch football or just stats? His ceiling is a Burrow type.. that’s not to say he’s gonna be that’s simply saying if he hits, that’s what he has the potential to be

 

[Braman]

I think he's a rich man's Tua..

That’s the problem lol The hype gives irrational expectations. Like you could just comp him to, you know….Tua.

He’d be LUCKY to have that type of trajectory, let alone be a better version. Bc again nothing statistically shows he’s even on that level.

 

[Joe Sixpack]

Shadeur is a pure pocket passer who doesn't really have a strong arm. He has a good arm its just not a laser

He doesn't really move well either


We'll see where he goes though

 

[Karume]

There’s plenty of non-mobile QBs listed. That’s no excuse

excuse for what?

 

[Armchair Militant]

I would be shocked if he’s the first QB off the board.

 

[BucciMane]

What does Shaduer actually do that's elite besides run backwards and take some terrible sacks? That's all I typically notice when watching him. It's almost like Deshaun Watson when he was making some brain-dead plays.