As a milbreh, on a scale of one to ten what would you grade the Ukrainian performance so far, the Russians so far, and what do you think happens next on the battlefield? Do you see any clean cut end to this?
I’ve been trying my best to follow this since 2014. From what they started with and have now, I give them a 12/10. They maneuver very well, they have been really smart strategically, and they’ve adapted really well. They look like us fighting out there. Some of the units look like a slowed down version of the 75th. They look like they’re both consolidating and dispersing for something big.
I figured Russia would get done up in the open ground until they smartened up and move as a slow rolling wall. I know the lack of experience was going to hurt them so they’re slowly learning as they go. They don’t seem to know the difference in the small arms, armor, and anti-armor that’s killing them.
I saw a video somewhere of a spetznatz recon commander describing their individual strategy. He was pissed about it because they were basically using them as fishing bait for indirect and air strikes (I know spetz isn’t always that special as they just toss the name around).
They’re basically depending on WWII tactics and can’t really seem to coordinate very well. I think they depend on spies and drone completely. Which may be why they can only launch cruise missiles and why they haven’t completely taken the east yet. I think they’re going to lose Kherson soon too.
I think by late April or early May, at the latest, one or both sides is going to punch somebody’s positions really hard. I’m mostly thinking Ukraine, somewhere in the East or south.
The Ukrainians have audacity and overall proficiency. The Russians just seem to lash out reactively, hoping the line they have from Kherson to Kharkiv will hold until they can clear Mariupol and rush south to try to negotiate an annexation.
They did something similar to several units around 2014 but it just made the Ukrainians fight back harder. I don’t think this will end cleanly as they aren’t willing to let the Russians have the east and will keep fighting perpetually until they push them out.
I don’t believe Russia will invade Finland or attack anyone from NATO. I don’t think they’ll try to attack anymore former satellites until they can assess whether they will fight back like Ukraine. They’re stuck until they give up which I think will be by Summer. If they have pulled out by then or try to get really destructive, I think another neighbor will step in to make them withdraw.
to me
If this is what deters you from "cheering" for Ukraine, you were never on their side in the first place.
