Y'all bring up some very, very valid points. I think where I fall on the issue is... I can't fathom Russia breaking up. Not anytime soon. Maybe y'all are seeing something that I'm not, but as long as Putin and other hard-nose former Soviets are alive, I don't see them letting Russia fall apart after having to suffer the shame and fallout that came from the USSR falling apart. I just can't see that. I don't see a world where that happens.
I still think that NATO countries ease up on the sanctions if Russia were to withdraw. I'm certain that would be part of Russia's negotiations. There is no way they withdraw from Ukraine if they don't get an agreement regarding sanctions easing up. And if NATO's private face is the same as their public face, I can see them working out an agreement regarding the sanctions.
However, I am saying that only happens if NATO's private face is the same as its public face. Right now, their public face is "Invasion of Ukraine is morally wrong, you are displacing men, women and children, you should withdraw immediately blah blah blah."
But there is a chance that their private face is different. Y'all may very well be right, in that NATO is more interested in the destruction of Russia than saving Ukraine. If that's the case, Ukraine is truly in trouble and that would lend credence to some of the conspiracy theorists who have entered this thread with posts about the US only using Ukraine to do their dirty work, and the US government not really caring one whit about what happens in Ukraine.
In the scenario that y'all lay out: NATO would never agree to lift sanctions because they are willing to sacrifice Ukraine in a bid to get Russia completely out of the paint.
I hope that isn't so, cause if it is, what we've seen happen in Ukraine so far is child's play compared to what we'll soon be seeing.
But the bolded is the bigger prize. If Russia is sanctioned into oblivion and crumbles, then Ukraine can be rebuilt.
But what makes you so certain ANY nation can't be broken up? The UK left the Eurozone. Russia's all ready been broken up and or reconstructed twice in the past 100 years, former Yugoslavia broke up etc. Russia isn't some how exempt from that because Putin's a strong man. In fact, deposing strongman leaders is almost CERTAIN to lead to the country falling apart for a while. And like I said, unlike South Sudan or Yugoslavia, NATO has a VESTED INTEREST in having a leader play ball in Moscow. Putin knows this and will fight to the death, because his oligarchs and sycophants will do what sycophants do, and save themselves. As long as they can keep their millions (which most won't) they'll suck NATOs dikk too.