Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (Official Thread)

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Sobering. There's going to be a bit of pain to wean off Russia.

In this low attention span age, things will get dicey once the war is over in terms of public opinion.

After Ukraine, how will the world replace Russia’s oil products?






Which is why I said earlier that these sanctions were never intended to be permanent. They were a deterrence method, they still are really. Biden and Co are squeezing Putin as hard as they can, until they find the right pressure point that will make him back out of Ukraine.

The international community doesn't want Russia removed from the world stage. That benefits no one long term. This is just punishment to get them to stop doing what they're doing.

I still say that if Putin were to tell his army to pull out today and go home, that these sanctions would gradually start to ease up. He would have to pay reparations and restitution but the sanctions would be eased on Russia probably in a matter of months, MAYBE a year or 2 but I honestly don't see it going for years.
 
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"Ever since, Putin has established a tutelage over Assad and, during visits to Syria, has rarely wasted an opportunity to assert his dominance. During inspections of Russian troops at Kheimemin, Putin led entourages, forcing Assad to trail behind him. He has insisted on meetings in Russian bases instead of the presidential palace – a clear slight to a leader who he regularly complained was yet to return Russia’s investment in blood and treasure"

:mjlol:




I had no idea Assad was getting lil boyed all this time. :ohhh::mjlol:
 

Orbital-Fetus

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Which is why I said earlier that these sanctions were never intended to be permanent. They were a deterrence method, they still are really. Biden and Co are squeezing Putin as hard as they can, until they find the right pressure point that will make him back out of Ukraine.

The international community doesn't want Russia removed from the world stage. That benefits no one long term. This is just punishment to get them to stop doing what they're doing.

I still say that if Putin were to tell his army to pull out today and go home, that these sanctions would gradually start to ease up. He would have to pay reparations and restitution but the sanctions would be eased on Russia probably in a matter of months, MAYBE a year or 2 but I honestly don't see it going for years.

gotta disagree with you on some points.
these sanctions and arguably any sanctions are not deterrences, they are punishments for actions already taken.
you can threaten sanctions as a deterrence but once they are implemented they are punitive.

and i'm certain that there are members of the international community that would love to see Russia break up into somewhere between 3 and 8 new nations with no Mother Russia to tug at their chains. assuming they are democratic nations that could potentially put a couple of new democracies on China's borders.
bring them into the UN as US pupp...erm...allies and you can see how tempting a Russialess world starts looking to some people.

so far as sanctions being lifted quickly if he comes to heal and backs out...nah, the West has been forced to take stock of just how deep Russia's tentacles have sunk into their governments, media and economies. now the West has a taste for Russian blood. this is a once in a generation opportunity to knock a historically permanent piece on the global chess board out the box. don't think for a second that this is not lost on leaders in the West. so long as Putin is in power Russia is gonna be feeling it.
 

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Which is why I said earlier that these sanctions were never intended to be permanent. They were a deterrence method, they still are really. Biden and Co are squeezing Putin as hard as they can, until they find the right pressure point that will make him back out of Ukraine.

The international community doesn't want Russia removed from the world stage. That benefits no one long term. This is just punishment to get them to stop doing what they're doing.

I still say that if Putin were to tell his army to pull out today and go home, that these sanctions would gradually start to ease up. He would have to pay reparations and restitution but the sanctions would be eased on Russia probably in a matter of months, MAYBE a year or 2 but I honestly don't see it going for years.


Sanctions are punishments not deterrents. Like my man @Orbital-Fetus said.

The west has NO incentive to lift those sanctions. North Korea & Cuba are on PERMANENT sanctions. Why would Russia not be? Washington, London and Paris are all looking at Russia like :usure: right now. Multi-nationals pulled out. The world banking system pulling out. Russia is ALREADY cut off from the world stage.

And old dogs like Biden and Romney are looking at the remnants of the Soviet Union like "we left them too much".

Russia CAN be removed from the world stage, look at it now. America and the Euro zone can still live in comfort, no one will give a fukk about Russian gas. If America, Germany and the UK subsidize electric vehicles in the Eurozone, no one gives a fukk about Russian gas. And what does Russia have besides cyber-sabotage on the global stage? Oh, Russian oil/gas. I expect these sanctions to stay in place for MONTHS perhaps even years after this conflict ends. Why? Because that forces the opposition elements to seek help elsewhere, i.e. the West. You're thinking that the world gives two shyt about the Russian people right now.



Could you imagine? Let's say Putin is deposed. Then Russia breaks up into 3-4 nations. You think China and NATO wouldn't be at the table the next day carving that land mass up? :manny:
You must not have remembered what happened in the Balkans in the 90's.
 

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“There’s no talk of capitulation for Kyiv,” said Lt. Tetiana Chornovol, the commander of an anti-tank missile unit operating on the outskirts of the city. “Everything is going far better than we thought.”

Chornovol, 42, is a former activist in Ukraine’s street protest movement who sent her two children to safety before reporting for duty as a reserve officer. She commands two teams of a half-dozen or so people each, firing Ukrainian-made, tripod-mounted missiles, which they transport to ambush positions in their personal cars.

Chornovol drives a Chevy Volt electric hatchback, which she calls an “ecologically clean killing machine.”

Interviewed beside a burning grocery warehouse in the suburban town of Brovary, the lieutenant popped the hatchback to reveal a beige tube, holding a Stugna-P missile. It has a range of 3 miles and hits a target within a diameter of 1 foot.

Seemingly unfazed by combat, Chornovol described the Ukrainian tactic of ambushes that has defined the early phases of the battle for the capital. Last week, she said, she blew up a Russian tank a few miles east of Brovary on the M01 highway.

“We look for firing positions where we can see a stretch of road,” Chornovol said, adding that “we know a column will drive on the road” eventually. With her car parked some distance away, covered in camouflage, she and her team lay in wait in a tree line for three days before a Russian column came rumbling down the road.

When the command came to open fire, she used a laser to lock in on the tank, pushed a button, then watched as the tank lit up in flames before she rushed back to her car to escape return fire. “I shoot at armor,” she said, when asked about the human toll. “If they climb inside, it’s their fault.”


The Battle for Kyiv Looms as a Long and Bloody Conflict
 
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gotta disagree with you on some points.
these sanctions and arguably any sanctions are not deterrences, they are punishments for actions already taken.
you can threaten sanctions as a deterrence but once they are implemented they are punitive.

and i'm certain that there are members of the international community that would love to see Russia break up into somewhere between 3 and 8 new nations with no Mother Russia to tug at their chains. assuming they are democratic nations that could potentially put a couple of new democracies on China's borders.
bring them into the UN as US pupp...erm...allies and you can see how tempting a Russialess world starts looking to some people.

so far as sanctions being lifted quickly if he comes to heal and backs out...nah, the West has been forced to take stock of just how deep Russia's tentacles have sunk into their governments, media and economies. now the West has a taste for Russian blood. this is a once in a generation opportunity to knock a historically permanent piece on the global chess board out the box. don't think for a second that this is not lost on leaders in the West. so long as Putin is in power Russia is gonna be feeling it.




Sanctions are punishments not deterrents. Like my man @Orbital-Fetus said.

The west has NO incentive to lift those sanctions. North Korea & Cuba are on PERMANENT sanctions. Why would Russia not be? Washington, London and Paris are all looking at Russia like :usure: right now. Multi-nationals pulled out. The world banking system pulling out. Russia is ALREADY cut off from the world stage.

And old dogs like Biden and Romney are looking at the remnants of the Soviet Union like "we left them too much".

Russia CAN be removed from the world stage, look at it now. America and the Euro zone can still live in comfort, no one will give a fukk about Russian gas. If America, Germany and the UK subsidize electric vehicles in the Eurozone, no one gives a fukk about Russian gas. And what does Russia have besides cyber-sabotage on the global stage? Oh, Russian oil/gas. I expect these sanctions to stay in place for MONTHS perhaps even years after this conflict ends. Why? Because that forces the opposition elements to seek help elsewhere, i.e. the West. You're thinking that the world gives two shyt about the Russian people right now.



Could you imagine? Let's say Putin is deposed. Then Russia breaks up into 3-4 nations. You think China and NATO wouldn't be at the table the next day carving that land mass up? :manny:
You must not have remembered what happened in the Balkans in the 90's.







Y'all bring up some very, very valid points. I think where I fall on the issue is... I can't fathom Russia breaking up. Not anytime soon. Maybe y'all are seeing something that I'm not, but as long as Putin and other hard-nose former Soviets are alive, I don't see them letting Russia fall apart after having to suffer the shame and fallout that came from the USSR falling apart. I just can't see that. I don't see a world where that happens.

I still think that NATO countries ease up on the sanctions if Russia were to withdraw. I'm certain that would be part of Russia's negotiations. There is no way they withdraw from Ukraine if they don't get an agreement regarding sanctions easing up. And if NATO's private face is the same as their public face, I can see them working out an agreement regarding the sanctions.

However, I am saying that only happens if NATO's private face is the same as its public face. Right now, their public face is "Invasion of Ukraine is morally wrong, you are displacing men, women and children, you should withdraw immediately blah blah blah."

But there is a chance that their private face is different. Y'all may very well be right, in that NATO is more interested in the destruction of Russia than saving Ukraine. If that's the case, Ukraine is truly in trouble and that would lend credence to some of the conspiracy theorists who have entered this thread with posts about the US only using Ukraine to do their dirty work, and the US government not really caring one whit about what happens in Ukraine.

In the scenario that y'all lay out: NATO would never agree to lift sanctions because they are willing to sacrifice Ukraine in a bid to get Russia completely out of the paint.

I hope that isn't so, cause if it is, what we've seen happen in Ukraine so far is child's play compared to what we'll soon be seeing. :merchant:
 
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