russia is not breaking up due to some damn sanctions. it is a quick off-ramp, a slow retreat like america in afghanistan, or WW3.
I have to agree. The more I think about what brehs said earlier (NATO countries are willing to sacrifice Ukraine to get Russia out of the paint), the less likely it seems.
One thing brehs have to keep in mind is that all NATO leaders are having to deal with the Ukraine question domestically.
We are already hearing loud voices in the general public call for NATO to institute an NFZ.
And no, I'm not saying they should. But I am saying that there will be forces domestically who seek to take advantage of it and want to appear "more hawkish" on Ukraine.
We see it right now with Republicans. They haven't quite perfected their message yet, but they're trying to.
My point being, NATO can't just sit back and watch Ukraine burn and Russia's demise in a vacuum. Whatever happens there has the potential of blowing back domestically.
And if Putin or even Zelenskyy intimate that Russia is willing to withdraw if NATO promises to ease sanctions, and NATO is refusing to agree, there's no NATO leader that can withstand the fallout from that domestically.
I have to maintain my earlier stance. I believe that if Russia is willing to withdraw and make concessions (and I believe one of those concessions may be a removal of Putin as Russia's president, either that or a repeal of the measure that was passed allowing him to be president for life - they're going to try to limit his power in some capacity, they may even make a play for the release of Navalny, I dunno), then NATO will be willing to ease sanctions sooner rather than later.
I'm looking at it through the domestic political prism and I think that has to be considered when looking at it from the geopolitical stance.