At the same time,
a report produced by the International Energy Agency (IEA) underlined just how limited the options are for any economy seeking to replace Russian crude and other oil products.
It says global oil demand is projected to be nearly 100m barrels per day (bpd) this year, lower than previously forecast because of the shock to global growth caused by the war in Ukraine. Russia produces about 10m bpd and exports about half of that plus about 3m bpd of oil products. It is unclear, however, how much of that supply might now be at stake.
The IEA thinks that at least 1.5m bpd of oil and 1m bpd of oil products are likely to be lost from Russia, from April until at least the end of the year, as buyers either reject supplies voluntarily or do so to avoid breaching sanctions. It says: “These losses could deepen should bans or public censure accelerate.”
“In reality, no one country can plug the hole that Russia would leave in the market in the event of a global ban,” says Sophie Udubasceanu, global crude oil expert at energy market analysts ICIS. So where can the world try to source anything up to 5m extra barrels of oil a day?