Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (Official Thread)

Orbital-Fetus

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And now you know why Russia wants Crimea as part of Russia in this deal so they get the gas they found... so Ukraine is supposed to just be a poor country that can't do anything for themselves...

If Ukraine were to get this gas set up, they could end Europes dependence on Russian gas :manny:

that's pretty much how i see it.
 

GnauzBookOfRhymes

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Oil is heading to $200 and gas prices will continue to skyrocket. US shipping LNG to Europe is not going to be able to make up the difference.

Ultimately this will be as bad financially for the rest of the world as it is for Russia. And our governments are going to market it as a "necessary sacrifice."

Nations are rarely deterred by economic sanctions and unless someone high up decides to try the unthinkable by killing putin, I doubt this will be any different. I mean Ethiopia is a poor nation but US sanctions didn't change it's political calculus.

The sad part is that the US/EU etc allowed Russia to become this bully by taking its money no questions asked, selling itself to oligarchs and letting Putin do wild shyt like murder your own citizens with polonium for years w/o consequence. Now we're using ukraine to try and catch up somehow by hoping to weaken russia militarily. The thing that the ukranians don't yet understand is just how quickly our attention shifts. We're very good at doing surface level shyt like changing our social media bios to the ukrainian flag etc...but eventually something will happen and the media will move on.
 

LurkMoar

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Oil is heading to $200 and gas prices will continue to skyrocket. US shipping LNG to Europe is not going to be able to make up the difference.

Ultimately this will be as bad financially for the rest of the world as it is for Russia. And our governments are going to market it as a "necessary sacrifice."

Nations are rarely deterred by economic sanctions and unless someone high up decides to try the unthinkable by killing putin, I doubt this will be any different. I mean Ethiopia is a poor nation but US sanctions didn't change it's political calculus.

The sad part is that the US/EU etc allowed Russia to become this bully by taking its money no questions asked, selling itself to oligarchs and letting Putin do wild shyt like murder your own citizens with polonium for years w/o consequence. Now we're using ukraine to try and catch up somehow by hoping to weaken russia militarily. The thing that the ukranians don't yet understand is just how quickly our attention shifts. We're very good at doing surface level shyt like changing our social media bios to the ukrainian flag etc...but eventually something will happen and the media will move on.


Hit the nail on the head breh, we’re not even talking about that famine that’s coming in North Africa which gets most of their grain from russia and Ukraine. High gas and higher food prices coming to America as well.
 

MoneyTron

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Oil is heading to $200 and gas prices will continue to skyrocket. US shipping LNG to Europe is not going to be able to make up the difference.

Ultimately this will be as bad financially for the rest of the world as it is for Russia. And our governments are going to market it as a "necessary sacrifice."

Nations are rarely deterred by economic sanctions and unless someone high up decides to try the unthinkable by killing putin, I doubt this will be any different. I mean Ethiopia is a poor nation but US sanctions didn't change it's political calculus.

The sad part is that the US/EU etc allowed Russia to become this bully by taking its money no questions asked, selling itself to oligarchs and letting Putin do wild shyt like murder your own citizens with polonium for years w/o consequence. Now we're using ukraine to try and catch up somehow by hoping to weaken russia militarily. The thing that the ukranians don't yet understand is just how quickly our attention shifts. We're very good at doing surface level shyt like changing our social media bios to the ukrainian flag etc...but eventually something will happen and the media will move on.
Nah, I don't think the main hope isn't to weaken Russia militarily. That's a side effect. Everyone knew the deal coming re: oil. This was done to set Russia back economically as a byproduct possibly(although unlikely) destabilize Putin's hold on power and shorten the conflict.

Despite Russia still receiving energy money from countries in the EU, its not enough to offset the massive level of sanctions levied at them. So I don't see it as a 1 for 1. Russia is still getting the short end of the stick and its not close.
 
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Looks like the negotiations with Venezuela are a bust, dont expect cheap gas anytime soon.

U.S., Venezuela discuss easing sanctions, make little progress: sources

CARACAS/WASHINGTON, March 6 (Reuters) - U.S. and Venezuelan officials discussed the possibility of easing oil sanctions on Venezuela but made scant progress toward a deal in their first high-level bilateral talks in years, five sources familiar with the matter said, as Washington seeks to separate Russia from one of its key allies.

Both sides used Saturday's meeting in Caracas to present what one of the sources described as "maximalist" demands, reflecting longtime tensions between the Western Hemisphere's main power and one of its biggest ideological foes.

A U.S. delegation led by Juan Gonzalez - the top White House Latin America adviser - and Ambassador James Story held talks at the Miraflores palace with socialist President Nicolas Maduro and his Vice President, Delcy Rodriguez, the sources said.

Roger Carstens, the special presidential envoy for hostage affairs, was also a member of the U.S. group and made the case to the Venezuela government for the release of American citizens and dual nationals held there, including six Citgo executives, according to one person familiar with the matter.

U.S. officials saw the meeting as a chance to gauge whether Venezuela, one of Russia's closest Latin American allies, is prepared to distance itself from President Vladimir Putin over his invasion of Ukraine, a source in Washington said.

Washington also wants to identify alternative oil supplies to fill the gap if it seeks a boycott of Moscow's energy industry. Venezuela could boost crude exports if Washington eases sanctions.

The White House, the U.S. State Department and Venezuela's Information ministry declined comment.

The U.S. willingness to re-engage after years of shunning such contact appeared to be a boost for Maduro.

The meeting came as Venezuela's financial lifeline to Russia is fraying under sanctions on Moscow following its military onslaught in Ukraine, which Russia calls a "special operation". Caracas used the talks to press for U.S. sanctions relief.

Venezuela has asked Russia in recent days to unfreeze oil proceeds at several Russian banks blacklisted by the United States, especially the Promsvyazbank (PSB), where Venezuela's state-run oil company PDVSA and the Defense Ministry have bank accounts, two separate sources said.

In 2019, as part of U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, another bank widely used for trade with Russia, the Evrofinance Mosnarbank, was blacklisted, forcing PDVSA to move its collecting accounts to other banks.

In the talks, Washington sought guarantees of free presidential elections, broad reforms of Venezuela's oil industry to facilitate production and exports by foreign firms and the government's public condemnation of the Ukraine invasion, which Maduro has defended, three people familiar with the matter said.

As a concession, the U.S. officials were willing to consider temporarily allowing Venezuela to use the SWIFT system, which facilitates financial transactions between banks worldwide, to move money to other accounts, one of the sources said.

Maduro sought a total lifting of sanctions prohibiting Venezuela's oil exports, the removal of sanctions on him and other Venezuelan officials and the return to the state's control of PDVSA's U.S. subsidiary Citgo Petroleum, sources said.

Easing oil sanctions could start by allowing companies including U.S. Chevron Corp (CVX.N), India's ONGC (ONGC.NS) and Europeans Eni , Repsol (REP.MC) and Maurel & Prom (MAUP.PA) to trade cargoes of Venezuelan oil. Those firms have made separate requests to Biden's administration, but no decisions have been made.

'ANXIOUS FOR SANCTIONS RELIEF'?

Even if Washington does not accede to Maduro's demands, he could use the U.S. meeting to pressure Russia to allow Venezuelan money to continue flowing, two of the sources said.

"Yes, Maduro is anxious for sanctions relief. No, he is not interested in shifting alliances. This is tactical," Eric Farnsworth, head of the Washington office of the Council of the Americas, said on Saturday on Twitter. "(The) U.S. must be clear-eyed about this, not naive."

The Caracas meeting was requested by Maduro's government through multinational law firm Dentons, previously used by other state entities for debt negotiations, two of the sources said.

A Dentons representative in Caracas did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The U.S. officials agreed to a follow-up meeting but no date was set, sources said.

Aides to Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido were only notified about the meeting on Saturday morning. Guaido was recognized by the United States and dozens of other nations as Venezuela's rightful leader after they dismissed Maduro's 2018 re-election as a sham, but several countries have since dropped their recognition.

In the encounter, the U.S. officials reiterated their demand for the release of six former Citgo executives jailed in Venezuela and other detained U.S. nationals, but did not offer any kind of swap involving businessman Alex Saab, a key Maduro ally detained in the United States. Saab's release has been a key demand by Maduro to return to talks with the opposition.
 

GnauzBookOfRhymes

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Nah, I don't think the main hope isn't to weaken Russia militarily. That's a side effect. Everyone knew the deal coming re: oil. This was done to set Russia back economically as a byproduct possibly(although unlikely) destabilize Putin's hold on power and shorten the conflict.

Despite Russia still receiving energy money from countries in the EU, its not enough to offset the massive level of sanctions levied at them. So I don't see it as a 1 for 1. Russia is still getting the short end of the stick and its not close.

Obviously they want to do both, but the point of arming the Ukrainians is to inflict Russian military losses. The point is that in govts like Russia where leaders only give a small fukk about what the people truly want, no amount of economic pain felt by the people is going to move Putin and Co.

All Russia has to do is survive. And considering the oil prices and all of the loopholes that inevitably come with sanctions, I don't think this is going to lead to the regime's downfall.
 

MoneyTron

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Obviously they want to do both, but the point of arming the Ukrainians is to inflict Russian military losses. The point is that in govts like Russia where leaders only give a small fukk about what the people truly want, no amount of economic pain felt by the people is going to move Putin and Co.

All Russia has to do is survive. And considering the oil prices and all of the loopholes that inevitably come with sanctions, I don't think this is going to lead to the regime's downfall.
I don't think economic pain was going to remove Putin either and it wasn't going to stop him from invading Ukraine. I think everyone was in agreeance with those opinions. Still needed to be done though.
 

Hoodoo Child

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With the Russians moving closer and closer to Kyiv, I keep asking myself, "What is Putin's end goal?". Is he trying to conserve the city? Why didn't he use his vast artillery and superior Air Force from the jump? Because honestly, he was better off just leveling the place. Even if he does take over the country, and replace leadership, those Ukrainians will NOT accept a Puppet leader as their new PM. He's already a pariah, might as well just go 'scorched earth', and save face.
 
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With the Russians moving closer and closer to Kyiv, I keep asking myself, "What is Putin's end goal?". Is he trying to conserve the city? Why didn't he use his vast artillery and superior Air Force from the jump? Because honestly, he was better off just leveling the place. Even if he does take over the country, and replace leadership, those Ukrainians will NOT accept a Puppet leader as their new PM. He's already a pariah, might as well just go 'scorched earth', and save face.

Then he'll never get his frozen funds back. The oligarchs and the military leadership that supports them will give him a polonium milkshake and will force feed it to him if necessary.

Putin really made a massive strategic error here. Everyone else is rushing toward Europe and the EU and NATO will end up being strengthened. It's up to our diplomats to help him craft an out because he's in desperate need of one and can't come up with one on his own that won't make him look like a bytch publicly.
 
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