Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (Official Thread)

Json

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To be fair, that's pretty much what everyone thought before WW1.

Two enormous blocs like the Triple Alliance and the Triple Entente could never be stupid enough to go to war... and then they did and it was as bad as everyone thought it would be.
Maybe I’m misremembering, but the reason everyone was drawn in was they had treaties with each other to get involved?

Russia doesn’t have explicit treaties with China or India my knowledge. They have close ties but everyone is assuming they will jump in on Russia’s side.


All Russia has is those puppet leaders he put in place. Which isn’t insignificant but probably doesn’t overcome the exSoviet states who hate his guts.
 

MeachTheMonster

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Conquest is still on , China is just doing it by contracts and setting up ridiculous deals knowing that many country’s will not be able to pay off the loans
World ain’t letting it happen. Any sovereign nation that appeals to the world for their sovereignty, will be supported.

If the world would allow it China would have already captured those countries. Most they can do is pretend reality aint real, but eventually that will give way cause they have no choice.
 

Sukairain

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I agree things are different with the existence of the EU and NATO, but the rhetoric is remarkably similar ("Nobody would be crazy enough to start WW3, surely!") and if China and/or India decide to fall on Russia's side of the conflict a lot comes into play.

Yep we can and should bully economically, but part of that economic intertwining is a large part of our economic health in the West being based around cheap imported goods from China/Taiwan, cheap skilled labour from India, Hungary, Belarus, Ukraine, Russia etc and, in Europe especially, cheap imported energy and minerals from Russia and Ukraine.

The rush for PPE at the start of COVID demonstrated, especially in Europe, that we're dangerously reliant on "business as usual" global trade routes and relations - when they get disrupted because of competing demand or fractured relationships, so do we - badly.

World ain’t letting it happen. Any sovereign nation that appeals to the world for their sovereignty, will be supported.

If the world would allow it China would have already captured those countries. Most they can do is pretend reality aint real, but eventually that will give way cause they have no choice.

What is the reason that you think India wants a part of this? I would like to know in case I'm missing something. They didn't condemn them in the UN and they're still doing business with them, but there is as far as I know no thought of an actual alliance. More like staying neutral. The world isn't divided into pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian camps. Being neutral is still an option

I find it very difficult to see why India would want to get involved since in the last few years India has moved closer to USA, Japan, and Australia as part of an Indo-Pacific Ocean bloc to counter China's influence in those oceans. So if you spent the last few years trying to find allies against China, then why would you suddenly decide to shack up with Russia and therefore with China. It doesn't make any sense to me.

India was close to the USSR because it had pro-socialist governments until about 1990, and also because Pakistan had an American alliance. So it made sense to be tight with the USSR. It doesn't make sense anymore
 
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MeachTheMonster

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What is the reason that you think India wants a part of this? I would like to know in case I'm missing something. They didn't condemn them in the UN and they're still doing business with them, but there is as far as I know no thought of an actual alliance. More like staying neutral.

they are one of the nations that benefits the most by staying neutral. They are still trying to pull themselves out of their own “dark ages” in a way. They don’t have the power/fortitude to make a stand right now, so they stay neutral.

I find it very difficult to see why India would want to get involved since in the last few years India has moved closer to USA, Japan, and Australia as part of an Indo-Pacific Ocean bloc to counter China's influence in those oceans. So if you spent the last few years trying to find allies against China, then why would you suddenly decide to shack up with Russia and therefore with China. It doesn't make any sense to me
They won’t. Again they are still trying to bullied their own economy/position in the world. They want nothing to do with conflict and will stay neutral as long as possible.
 

TheAlbionist

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What is the reason that you think India wants a part of this? I would like to know in case I'm missing something. They didn't condemn them in the UN and they're still doing business with them, but there is as far as I know no thought of an actual alliance. More like staying neutral.

I find it very difficult to see why India would want to get involved since in the last few years India has moved closer to USA, Japan, and Australia as part of an Indo-Pacific Ocean bloc to counter China's influence in those oceans. So if you spent the last few years trying to find allies against China, then why would you suddenly decide to shack up with Russia and therefore with China. It doesn't make any sense to me

India would be nuts to actually jump into bed with Russia like that, but they've been on a big Nationalist strongman wave lately and I don't think that always leads to the most logical outcomes - Modi rarely has a bad word to say about Putin (he was a Trump fan too) and unless I'm out of date, he's refused to call this an invasion or even a war which is very much toeing Putin's line. Disinformation in India is at an all time high and let's face it, their nationalists have all the historical reasons for wanting to give the West a black eye.

I think similar to the way people worry China/Xi may be waiting for the situation in Ukraine to resolve before deciding how they deal with Taiwan's independence, Modi probably has a keen eye on what the world is willing to turn a blind eye to - he's already managed to strip Kashmir of its autonomy with virtually no pushback and many voices in India want him to start challenging Pakistan directly again. If Putin manages to hold Ukraine without waking NATO's sleeping giant, who knows what other nuclear-armed strongmen around the world will feel enabled to try.
 

Brehcepticon

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Sukairain

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India would be nuts to actually jump into bed with Russia like that, but they've been on a big Nationalist strongman wave lately and I don't think that always leads to the most logical outcomes - Modi rarely has a bad word to say about Putin (he was a Trump fan too) and unless I'm out of date, he's refused to call this an invasion or even a war which is very much toeing Putin's line. Disinformation in India is at an all time high and let's face it, their nationalists have all the historical reasons for wanting to give the West a black eye.

I think similar to the way people worry China/Xi may be waiting for the situation in Ukraine to resolve before deciding how they deal with Taiwan's independence, Modi probably has a keen eye on what the world is willing to turn a blind eye to - he's already managed to strip Kashmir of its autonomy with virtually no pushback and many voices in India want him to start challenging Pakistan directly again. If Putin manages to hold Ukraine without waking NATO's sleeping giant, who knows what other nuclear-armed strongmen around the world will feel enabled to try.

But that is a totally different situation. Jammu & Kashmir is Indian, it's part of the union and has been ever since October 1947 - India only came into existence two months before Jammu & Kashmir joined it. The king of Jammu & Kashmir voluntarily agreed to join the union. He signed it over. Once you sign a contract then that land belongs to whoever you signed it to.

In fact the king signed it over to India because he had been invaded by Afghan tribesmen and the Pakistani army. He didn't have an army. So he figured the best way to defend his people from a foreign invasion was to voluntarily join with a country that did have an army, India. Nobody put any pressure on the king except for the invaders. He gave up the right to autonomy as soon as he realised he couldn't defend the land by himself.

Here's what he signed:

  1. I hereby declare that I accede to the Dominion of India with the intent that the Governor General of India, the Dominion Legislature, the Federal Court and any other Dominion authority established for the purposes of the Dominion shall by virtue of this my Instrument of Accession but subject always to the terms thereof, and for the purposes only of the Dominion, exercise in relation to the State of Jammu & Kashmir (hereinafter referred to as "this State") such functions as may be vested in them by or under the Government of India Act, 1935, as in force in the Dominion of India, on the 15th day of August 1947, (which Act as so in force is hereafter referred to as "the Act').
Given under my hand this 26th day of OCTOBER, nineteen hundred and forty seven.

HARI SINGH

Maharajadhiraj of Jammu and Kashmir State.

So let's get that straight, as of 1947 down to today, Pakistan is the foreign aggressor and invader of Jammu & Kashmir, whereas India is the defender and the legitimate owner of that land. If the people of the state feel different, that's too bad. Take it up with your dead king. The contract has been signed and it's not going to get torn up 75 years later just because you now feel that it was a bad deal.

So India is not invading an independent foreign country when it does something to Jammu & Kashmir, it is instead governing one of its 27 union states. No foreign country has the right to interfere with a government's policy in one of its own states. Nobody has the right to demand for autonomy for Jammu & Kashmir, that question is entirely Delhi's prerogative.
 
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