Im guessing Putin betting that EU, US and other nations are so divided that he could exploit that but they are assembling like Voltron
Im thinking Zelensky staying in Ukraine was a brilliant move b/c if he left the NATO would have been even slower or not respond at all.
Europe recognizes this invasion as an assault on the greatest gift of the greatest generation: the rules based international order that democracy provides. We have been here before and Europe sure as hell does not want to go back.
Putin is not the first and won’t be the last to underestimate democratic republics. He believes our pluralism and our disagreements are our weakness and seeks to sow division to destroy us. But so long as we hold to our democratic values, our debate and disagreements are what make us strong.
Strongmen like Putin believe in nothing beyond themselves. Their malignant narcissism puts them above anything else. They can’t understand the idea that institutions or documents can be something greater than them. They care only for weaponizing hate of an “other” to aggrandize power by forcing loyalty through fear. Strongmen like Putin see nothing above themselves.
That’s why Putin assumed Zelensky would flee and Ukraine would just give up. Because, if he were in that situation, that’s precisely what he would do.
But the greatest generation’s gift to us put in place something greater than any individual. And the idea of self determination of a democratic republic is one that we and Europe know is greater than any one individual. And the rule based order of alliances between us and Europe based on these values. And since we see it threatened in a way we have seen it threatened before - and millions died to stop it - Europe will rally around it.