Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (Official Thread)

[Rekkapryde]

The Monroe Doctrine is as official as it gets.

no doubt.

 

[Hahahaha]

So best case scenario, Zelensky govt promises neutrality from NATO and the attacks stop and Kiev can foster a balanced relationship between East and West. Worst case scenario, Ukraine is decapitated with only the western portion of the country left as a runt state.

The more I think about it tho, annexing territory might not be the end game because that won’t change the reality that NATO is on the Russian border. For Moscow, making Ukraine non-NATO, keeping Finland/Sweden non-NATO, and creating distance between themselves and the West is probably the most ideal goal.

On the other hand, the question of NATO’s existence has been answered by Putin’s actions. It’s a very interesting situation, NATO expansion was viewed as threatening in post Soviet Russia, but NATO expanded because post Soviet Russia was still seen as a threat, because it was still seen as a threat post Soviet Russia never truly warmed to NATO/US, NATO purpose was reinforced by Putin’s actions in places like the Caucuses, Putin/Russian fears don’t go away as NATO reaches its doorstep anyway, all it took to bring confrontation that close was support for the Maidan movement which then started the clock for this conflict.

Very entangled situation

@ Putin allowing the current government to stay in power and be neutral after this current invasion.

 

[Scottie Drippin]

Can we annex Jamaica? asking for a friend

Absolute fukk boy weirdo

 

[Leasy]

While very unrealistic it's going to need all of the Oligarchs highest Generals and FSB to sign off otherwise it's a non starter. Also someone's going to snitch to gain favour rise up the ladder. Basically it's just one attempt at it and if it fails they are all gone. Then it's down to ill health/old age which could take years.

He totally losing it while losing them money. Dude is out of here I give it this year or beginning of next. I am not saying he would be off'ed but push aside like that's enough now man you losing it.

 

[2Quik4UHoes]

@ Putin allowing the current government to stay in power and be neutral after this current invasion.

That’s why I said best case because it’s highly unlikely. Maintaining a puppet govt of their own would be pretty costly, if they can make it look like Zelensky decided on neutrality for the good of the country he might not have as much of a problem maintaining legitimacy as a whole Putinbot in office would.

But I agree, there’s no way this would go down the ukreh need to make that asylum move before he gets killed.

 

[Scottie Drippin]

While very unrealistic it's going to need all of the Oligarchs highest Generals and FSB to sign off otherwise it's a non starter. Also someone's going to snitch to gain favour rise up the ladder. Basically it's just one attempt at it and if it fails they are all gone. Then it's down to ill health/old age which could take years.

This. All talk about Putin being done by the insiders has to come with the understanding that whoever snitches is basically cashing a check on a billion dollars.

I think easily the most likely internal scenario is civil unrest. And that's only gonna come if Ukraine can hold out long enough.

 

[2Quik4UHoes]

This. All talk about Putin being done by the insiders has to come with the understanding that whoever snitches is basically cashing a check on a billion dollars.

I think easily the most likely internal scenario is civil unrest. And that's only gonna come if Ukraine can hold out long enough.

Exactly, not a chance it’s an internal coup because all i’s and t’s have been dotted and crossed before this invasion. So it’s not the oligarchs that will be the cause of an overthrow but rather civil unrest like you said.

I think what could be more likely is civil unrest somewhere else in Russia’s orbit like Kazakstan with discreet support from the West in order to draw attention away from the Ukraine front.

 

[Able Archer 83]

That’s the most interesting angle to watch in all this. That would actually bring things very close to the brink because that doesn’t just represent a new NATO country on its border but that all but turns the Baltic Sea into a NATO lake. None of which Putin is going for.

Finland/Sweden are good enough militarily to not need NATO membership and so far their neutrality has been successful.

Note how Finland/Sweden already cooperate with NATO in re: Host Nation Support. They get the best of both possible worlds. Not actually needing NATO membership, while able to assist with NATO in re: logistics/communications during a crisis.

 

[Hater]

man is putting in work

That's a dope ass name

 

[Scottie Drippin]

Exactly, not a chance it’s an internal coup because all i’s and t’s have been dotted and crossed before this invasion. So it’s not the oligarchs that will be the cause of an overthrow but rather civil unrest like you said.

I think what could be more likely is civil unrest somewhere else in Russia’s orbit like Kazakstan with discreet support from the West in order to draw attention away from the Ukraine front.

I think Russia would put that down in cold blood. It's gotta be Moscow that takes to the streets. Any of the ethnic states they're gonna call terrorists fueled by the west

 

[Liu Kang]

That’s the most interesting angle to watch in all this. That would actually bring things very close to the brink because that doesn’t just represent a new NATO country on its border but that all but turns the Baltic Sea into a NATO lake. None of which Putin is going for.

Finland/Sweden are good enough militarily to not need NATO membership and so far their neutrality has been successful.

I can't understand Putin's attack if I take it as only wanting to prevent a NATO border because the attack will absolutely drive non-NATO country towards it. Considering the aggression against Ukraine since 2014 and the relative safety of the tiny Baltic states, the only conclusion you can draw is that Ukraine got invaded because it wasnt protected by NATO.

I think you pointed it out earlier but Ianoukovitch being ousted by the Maidan protests is most likely the final trigger of Putin's hate against Kiev. This invasion is payback for it and he wants to put a Lukachenko in Ukraine.

 

[2Quik4UHoes]

Note how Finland/Sweden already cooperate with NATO in re: Host Nation Support. They get the best of both possible worlds. Not actually needing NATO membership, while able to assist with NATO in re: logistics/communications during a crisis.

Honestly, had Ukraine taken this path it might’ve been able to pull it off. Would’ve allowed Ukraine to build up its military while not appearing threatening. But Sweden/Finland are different political realities than Ukraine which has had its own struggles with corruption for years. Let alone a Ukraine that went through the Maidan revolution which in Putin’s eyes was the West’s start of taking over Ukraine.

I think if Putin makes a move on the Baltic states then Finland/Sweden might be pushed even closer to NATO.

 

[Json]

The purpose of the sanctions weren't to stop Putin immediately. He knows that.

He also knows that if NATO intervened, the entire European continent would be at war. Which means the US would have to join, which means Russia would like ask China for assistance, and then...

China ain’t helping Russia when push comes to shove. All those untapped resources in a weakened Russia would likely go straight to them.

Let the West do their dirty work and never fire a shot

 

[Hahahaha]

Not a good sign when I agree with Erdogan.

Erdogan says NATO, Western reaction to Russian attack not decisive

 

[Rekkapryde]

China ain’t helping Russia when push comes to shove. All those untapped resources in a weakened Russia would likely go straight to them.

Let the West do their dirty work and never fire a shot

you see it.