Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (Official Thread)

GnauzBookOfRhymes

GnauzBookOfRhymes

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℃ertifed said:


:smugbiden:
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I was thinking “when the fukk did Jim Lampley did involved in this shyt” 😂

Good Guy Guevara said:
I can't see this conflict going +10 years at this intensity. Ukraines current demographics and economy don't favor a long drawn out war like this nor do they have the equipment or weapons to sustain it. They will run out of manpower before the Russians do. It may take a few months to replace a tank but it takes 18 years to replace a soldier. The best end game for Ukraine is freezing the existing frontlines and creating a frozen conflict like Korea and that's something I think the West is trying to push towards. I just don't see the Russians agreeing to that scenario. The main goal of this war was to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and they will continue fighting until that's achieved. It would be a strategic failure for Russia to allow the West to rearm Ukraine and have some NATO lite security agreement with them.

It's pretty obvious we are going to keep this sunk cost fallacy going until there's no political will, cracks start forming in the alliance or Ukraines military/society breaks down. There needs to be an Austria like neutrality treaty signed by all sides which I think will ultimately happen. Ukraine stays neutral and no military alliance with NATO or Russia.
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And to acquire as much Ukrainian territory as possible.

But definitely agree neither Russia nor Ukraine have any incentive or desire to lower hostilities and that absent some unexpected breakthrough event (popular rising/overthrow of russian political structure), chances are this will end up as long drawn out heavily militarized border standoff. I don't see Ukraine ever agreeing to reject idea of NATO entry. Ukrainian deaths are disproportionately high bc of smaller population and many were civilians. Not to mention large parts of the country have been leveled and reconstruction will require a generational effort. Literally decades. NATO membership is the only thing preventing a recurrence.

Was actually writing a much longer response but I think you hit many salient points.
 
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GnauzBookOfRhymes said:
I was thinking “when the fukk did Jim Lampley did involved in this shyt” 😂



And to acquire as much Ukrainian territory as possible.

But definitely agree neither Russia nor Ukraine have any incentive or desire to lower hostilities and that absent some unexpected breakthrough event (popular rising/overthrow of russian political structure), chances are this will end up as long drawn out heavily militarized border standoff. I don't see Ukraine ever agreeing to reject idea of NATO entry. Ukrainian deaths are disproportionately high bc of smaller population and many were civilians. Not to mention large parts of the country have been leveled and reconstruction will require a generational effort. Literally decades. NATO membership is the only thing preventing a recurrence.

Was actually writing a much longer response but I think you hit many salient points.
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I agree the current Ukrainian government won't negotiate without a guarantee of NATO membership but presently their best chance of that happening was at the Vilnius Summit and they didn't get an official invitation. NATO just won't agree to any security agreements without substantial results on the battlefield. The counter offensive was supposed to better their hand at the negotiation table by cutting the land bridge to Crimea but they have ran into a well prepared defense of mines, Ka-52's and ATGM's. With the minuscule gains they've made so far its just looking more and more bleak they can fully expel the Russians and return their 1991 borders.

A heavily militarized border with Ukraine is something I believe Russia is trying to avoid. I think one of their maximalist goals is to create a demilitarized zone in the Kharkov, Sumy and Chernihiv oblast but they will definitely need to achieve that militarily. I don't think they will try this again for a third time and are committed to resolving their security situation with Ukraine now. The Russians probably regret not doing this in 2014 but they were not prepared for the sanctions. I just think the best situation for Ukraine is Austria like neutrality. When a country finds itself wedged between two majors powers like Ukraine is you have to play a smart and delicate geopolitical game. Keep the peace by playing both sides. Nobody likes the Turks because they've mastered this well.
 
GnauzBookOfRhymes

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Good Guy Guevara said:
I agree the current Ukrainian government won't negotiate without a guarantee of NATO membership but presently their best chance of that happening was at the Vilnius Summit and they didn't get an official invitation. NATO just won't agree to any security agreements without substantial results on the battlefield. The counter offensive was supposed to better their hand at the negotiation table by cutting the land bridge to Crimea but they have ran into a well prepared defense of mines, Ka-52's and ATGM's. With the minuscule gains they've made so far its just looking more and more bleak they can fully expel the Russians and return their 1991 borders.

A heavily militarized border with Ukraine is something I believe Russia is trying to avoid. I think one of their maximalist goals is to create a demilitarized zone in the Kharkov, Sumy and Chernihiv oblast but they will definitely need to achieve that militarily. I don't think they will try this again for a third time and are committed to resolving their security situation with Ukraine now. The Russians probably regret not doing this in 2014 but they were not prepared for the sanctions. I just think the best situation for Ukraine is Austria like neutrality. When a country finds itself wedged between two majors powers like Ukraine is you have to play a smart and delicate geopolitical game. Keep the peace by playing both sides. Nobody likes the Turks because they've mastered this well.
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Absolutely a possibility. I would imagine the memories would be too fresh for something like that to happen anytime soon, but again war has a way of wearing down a society and new political movements may emerge. Kind of like Taiwan where successive governments can flip flop on reunification etc.

But the devils in the details. Demilitarized is one thing but there’s still the question of political/economic control. I don’t see Russia ceding territory back to Ukraine in exchange for promises of neutrality. Especially since it seems this was more of a land grab and desire to restore some sense of national prestige than anything else.

Austria is neutral but they also just signed up for the European anti ballistic missile program created right after russia attacked Ukraine. Things change so quickly and frankly nothing in modern Russian history suggests it will transition from what is functionallly a criminal enterprise to a government that respects its neighbors autonomy etc.
 
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