Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (Official Thread)

Liu Kang

Liu Kang

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Orbital-Fetus said:
Russia is digging trenches in Crimea right now. So far as winter goes, this is the best prepared and supplied army Russia will have ever faced during winter. This isn't Operation Barbarossa where hundreds of thousands of men have nothing but summer gear in dead winter. I don't see Russia being able to supply forces in Crimea much longer. Russia may wind up getting literally starved out of Crimea sooner than later if Ukraine takes out the bridge again.

So far as the population being Russian friendly, I wonder how many civilians are still even there? We all saw the exodus.

Sevastopol stays getting molested by Ukrainian drones. Me thinks that taking Crimea is closer than you think. Two years sounds kinda silly considering what we've seen thus far but I could be wrong. Time will tell...
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Well yeah Russia needs to prepare in advance and stop being dumbasses lol. If they wouldnt be digging trenches right now, they would have learnt nothing from this war. And your point proved that things will be harder as they are prepping for a clash instead of being surprised by a counterattack.

The Kherson retreat means that their leadership has some moment where they remember to use their brains. That means that rather than trying to halt Ukr counterattack and lose thousands of lives to prevent the inevitable, they regrouped while keeping Kherson still at shelling range and probably full or EODs. You talk about Crimea in a couple of months yet Kherson City is not even secured...

How do you go to Crimea without securing territories West of the Dnipr first ??? Ukraine downed their ships at the beginning of the war and Odessa waters are heavily mined. Do you think they'll do landings, Normandy style ? And from where ? How do you want Ukr to reach Crimea in two months if it took the counter attack two months to just reach Kherson outskirts ?

Like look at the pic below, on the Southern front, it took two months for Ukraine to reclaim the blue parts and you want them to take Crimea in the more or less the same amount of time ?

DraftUkraineCoTNovember9%2C2022.png


I don't understand what you see there that make you so confident :patrice:
 
Liu Kang

Liu Kang

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Json said:
Ukraine isn’t going to sitting on the other side of the river drinking tea for 4 months.

Russia is having problems getting weapons and equipment. Ukraine will be getting more and more advanced weapons and training for the winter. We’ll feed and warmish.

I don’t think Ukraine needs to match into Crimea. Russia’s sunk cost fallacy is going to be tested the more they get pushed back to the Black Sea.
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It's not a question of what they'll do but the cold and the mud will slow down operations on both sides. That's why the positions will not move that much this winter. Ukraine would be foolish to cross the Dnipr right now and have its back against it under Russia shelling in the dead of winter. And that is knowing Russia blew up bridges after their retreat.

Their best bet on this front was Russia being stubborn and NOT crossing the Dnipr before winter as they would have completely been encircled by Ukrainians. And really, Russians commanders had been advising for a retreat since September and preparing that for a couple of weeks now. The reason it didnt happen was because Putin didnt want to lose Kherson, a city that is supposedly russian territory now that they voted that law last month :mjlol:


Objectively I don't get why you guys are so optimistic in retaking Crimea soon, it doesnt make sense unless you banking on the collapse of all collapses from the Russian army.
 
Orbital-Fetus

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Liu Kang said:
Like look at the pic below, on the Southern front, it took two months for Ukraine to reclaim the blue parts and you want them to take Crimea in the more or less the same amount of time ?
Click to expand...

Everything South of the blue down to the river has all been evacuated by Russia as well. That brings Crimea way closer than the former front lines you pointed out. I'm fairly certain that Ukrainian forces will have an easier go at river crossings than Russia did simply because the equipment is gonna be NATO. After that if Rus decides to really fight then it's gonna be an ugly slog for sure. But looking a couple of steps ahead and back to what I said previously, I have serious doubts that Rus will be able to adequately supply forces in Crimea. That bridge is gonna get taken out again. It's still not fully operational. So that leaves the Azov Sea or by land. Whatever comes by land is gonna have to go through the choke point of the peninsula which is covered in water on the eastern half so Rus has to get into Crimea from the Western part of where it meets the mainland; the closest point to the river they just crossed. So, can Russia supply Crimea via the Azov Sea alone? Airdrop supplies in? I just don't see it happening on land given that the bottleneck will be in Ukr crosshairs. They better have a shyt ton of food and water on hand already or it's gonna be a wrap for Putin there. The Black Sea is also an option for....

*edit*

Just did some googles and found out that the coast and ports of the Black Sea freeze in winter and the Sea of Azov completely freezes over for 2-5 months.

:dead:

These motherfukkers are fukked. I stand by my previous statements.

Political Map of Crimea - Nations Online Project
 
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