Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (Official Thread)

ZoeGod

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There is no doubt Putin has weighed this and decided he can survive any economic hit. He will be shielded personally as will his inner circle. They’ll still get revenue from energy exports to Europe and rest of the world, and they’ll maintain trade links with China, Iran, Central Asia etc. This isn’t a recipe for prosperity but still high chance of survival.

We have plenty of examples to show severe financial sanctions often end up reinforcing hardliners (North Korea, Iran) This won’t end through economic penalties I don’t think, it’ll end when Russia feels they’ve achieved their political goals. Real question is what are their goals ?
If I were to guess the Russians aren't planning a full occupation. Its likely to destroy the Ukrainian military from being an effective fighting force and break the Ukrainian economy to the point they are a failed state. Another would be to occupy the eastern half of Ukraine and the south as buffer states effectively turning Ukraine into a landlocked state that will be no threat to Russia.
 

thatrapsfan

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I can't find any updated chart about this, only ones from 2014

eu_pipes.jpg


I hope in 2022, those values are lower but I dont think by that much. Now if after the current crisis, we dont dissociate ourselves from Russian gas, we'll be utter fools.

Geopolitical reality will clash directly with domestic politics and climate goals here ( and explains partly why the situation has been frozen)

For example, the US can make up some of the shortfall, but would need to expand shale fracking for natural gas. Current Admin and many Dem states have committed to halting this.

Qatar is another potential source for additional exports, but Europe will have to make financial and political inducements to try to crowd out competition for Qatari gas from other countries (including China).

Then there is question of nuclear energy ( also politically unpopular in some of Europe, as you referenced with Germany) This would take a lot of time, you cant set up nuclear infrastructure overnight.
 

voltronblack

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If I were to guess the Russians aren't planning a full occupation. Its likely to destroy the Ukrainian military from being an effective fighting force and break the Ukrainian economy to the point they are a failed state. Another would be to occupy the eastern half of Ukraine and the south as buffer states effectively turning Ukraine into a landlocked state that will be no threat to Russia.
:jbhmm: so russia end goal is to turn ukraine in to a european version of north and south korea ?
 
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