Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (Official Thread)

[88m3]

interesting thread

 

[Roger king]

What's the likely resolution of this war? WIll ukraine have to give up territory?

 

[jj23]

What's the likely resolution of this war? WIll ukraine have to give up territory?

No one knows for sure. That said, Russia is in no position to force Ukraine to the bargaining table as it stands.

It should not be discounted, that after Crimea and the Donbass region, Russia saw the Ukraine as an easy target. They severely miscalculated.

They are now paying the price in isolation from the world, and the EU moving on from them as a source of energy. NATO also realises their fighting force is shyte and are openly mocking them.

Russia only has a nuclear fallback, and that means everyone dies, they won't survive that either. So that's not really a choice either.

The EU and the rest of the world are taking serious economic hits with inflation and soaring energy prices, but that will normalise. The only hope Russia has is getting someone like Trump back in power in the US to destabilise NATO.

That would still be 2 years away. 2 years of few imports outside of China and India. Cars, planes and manufacturing equipment will not be maintained. Outside of a complete destabilising of the financial system where everyone comes together to get things back on track, Russia is really in trouble.

 

[Roger king]

No one knows for sure. That said, Russia is in no position to force Ukraine to the bargaining table as it stands.

It should not be discounted, that after Crimea and the Donbass region, Russia saw the Ukraine as an easy target. They severely miscalculated.

They are now paying the price in isolation from the world, and the EU moving on from them as a source of energy. NATO also realises their fighting force is shyte and are openly mocking them.

Russia only has a nuclear fallback, and that means everyone dies, they won't survive that either. So that's not really a choice either.

The EU and the rest of the world are taking serious economic hits with inflation and soaring energy prices, but that will normalise. The only hope Russia has is getting someone like Trump back in power in the US to destabilise NATO.

That would still be 2 years away. 2 years of few imports outside of China and India. Cars, planes and manufacturing equipment will not be maintained. Outside of a complete destabilising of the financial system where everyone comes together to get things back on track, Russia is really in trouble.

yup and i would venture that even if trump gets back in the damage would have been done already, i think the hope is that the sanctions and all the companies leaving russia will have an effect and make them turn away from the war

 

[88m3]

 

[88m3]

 

[Carl Tethers]

Imma remind myself to come back and neg you....

I'm just angry dapping fools for now.. Counts as a minus dap

 

[shotemoffgp]

Weigh the

The Soviet Union (Not Russia) was able to absorb enormous losses because 1. The majority of its losses were in the near East (Ukraine/Belarus) but also because it was a newly industrialized country with massive resource advantage a long with the material support of the #1 USA and #2 Britain economies on planet. The Soviets were even supplying Nazi Germany with material support prior to the invasion. Even so modern scholarship has shown that the Soviets were on the brink of defeat many times and at the end of the war were spent as a military force and the Soviet Union never fully recovered from WW2.

Comparatively Russia today produces nothing of value and is merely a pipeline for oil that the west is gradually moving away from. The most obvious display of Russia lack of soft and hard power is Chinas reaction to the Ukrainian debacle which is to move away from material and political support for the Russian invasion.

Russia today has the GDP of Florida and a demographic catastrophe with a declining population where your average male only lives to 68 years old and 5 million of its best and brightest have already left the country. There is no strategic reserve nor is there any wonder weapon that’s going to change the tide of the war. Russia can’t even engage in large scale encirclements in the east where it’s strongest never mind making another advance on Kyiv.

Frankly you’re delusional and there absolutely no indication that there is going to be a balance of power shift in the word any time soon. The US continuously antagonizing China over Taiwan proves that Eastern Europe remains a side show and China is who the real opp is.


Also you seem to be under the assumption that war victory creates economies. The US was known throughout Europe as a future world power with an near inexhaustible manufacturing and population base. The Japanese knew this but like the Russians with Ukraine went to war ignoring material realities and instead assumed Ukraine would role over and accept their rule. They also bought into Russians being “tougher” than others meanwhile a 26 year old MIT student with an engineering degree in drone warfare is far more dangerous than a Spetnaz who can do a bunch of sit-ups.

Russia and Ukraine are currently causing a wheat shortage among other things. Europe is also dependent on Russian energy and they've admitted this. Russia is still the second strongest military and Ukraine hasn't even invaded Russia land. That's western propaganda. Russian economy is setting records despite sanctions. There hasn't been a draft so I don't see any real urgency from Russia despite western medias narrative. Finland and Sweden are trying to join NATO for strength against russia. They still see them as a threat.

Europe can't replace Russian oil, they're not moving away from it and China has a billion plus population in need of Russia oil. Theyre still building the pipeline. Like I said, these countries will support each other.

US and nato may antagonize China now, but the economic change will start to take off.

 

[shotemoffgp]

You can't sanction russia and china. I said that when those sanctions were first roled out. This isn't a small country like Cuba or even iran. They're too strong. China can halt business with the US and look to Russia and Africa and be alright. Its inevitable, China will get stronger and Russia has proven their sway throughout Europe in defiance of Americas muscle. The food shortage will be another awakening.

 

[Roger king]

You can't sanction russia and china. I said that when those sanctions were first roled out. This isn't a small country like Cuba or even iran. They're too strong. China can halt business with the US and look to Russia and Africa and be alright. Its inevitable, China will get stronger and Russia has proven their sway throughout Europe in defiance of Americas muscle. The food shortage will be another awakening.

I agree with you on china, they are the worlds second largest economy and a trading partner. Russia economy is not as strong they are not even top 10 in the economy via GDP output. The world eu and us can isolate russia far better than they can do china

 

[shotemoffgp]

After those losses, I'm pretty sure the Soviet union was a super power and the cold war arms race happened.

Russia might not be a top 10 ecocomy, but that's telling that they're yoyoing Europe with a crucial resource. They're in a geographic strategic position to europe, now they have the Crimea oil. They literally have Europe, Americas best ally, by the balls.

They really need to start dictating terms to nato, especially once that pipeline to China opens.

 

[Orbital-Fetus]

After those losses, I'm pretty sure the Soviet union was a super power and the cold war arms race happened.

Russia might not be a top 10 ecocomy, but that's telling that they're yoyoing Europe with a crucial resource. They're in a geographic strategic position to europe, now they have the Crimea oil. They literally have Europe, Americas best ally, by the balls.

They really need to start dictating terms to nato, especially once that pipeline to China opens.

Russia has been dictating terms to NATO since before the invasion.

Russia demanded NATO remove any troops or weapons deployed to countries that entered the alliance after 1997, which would include much of eastern Europe, including Poland, the former Soviet countries of Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, and the Balkan countries.

Russia also demanded NATO rule out further expansion, including the accession of Ukraine into the alliance, and that it does not hold drills without previous agreement from Russia in Ukraine, eastern Europe, in Caucasus countries such as Georgia or in Central Asia.


NATO said

because Russia can't back up any of that shyt.

i agree with you that there is a global power shift going on, you just got the direction of the shift all the way wrong.

 

[Orbital-Fetus]

 

[Mister Terrific]

Weigh the

Russia and Ukraine are currently causing a wheat shortage among other things. Europe is also dependent on Russian energy and they've admitted this. Russia is still the second strongest military and Ukraine hasn't even invaded Russia land. That's western propaganda. Russian economy is setting records despite sanctions. There hasn't been a draft so I don't see any real urgency from Russia despite western medias narrative. Finland and Sweden are trying to join NATO for strength against russia. They still see them as a threat.

Europe can't replace Russian oil, they're not moving away from it and China has a billion plus population in need of Russia oil. Theyre still building the pipeline. Like I said, these countries will support each other.

US and nato may antagonize China now, but the economic change will start to take off.

Russia's economy is collapsing as exports to the sanctioned country plummet in the face of President Vladimir Putin's ongoing, unprovoked war in Ukraine, trade experts suggest.

The "economy is imploding. We forecast a GDP collapse of -30% by end-2022," Robin Brooks, the chief economist at the Institute of International Finance trade group, tweeted on Sunday.

Brooks added that data compiled with help from Jonathan Pingle, an IIF researcher, indicated that exports from 20 countries to Russia were down 50% in April compared to the same time a year prior.

Russia's economy is 'imploding' as exports to the sanctioned country plummet, economists say

European and Western countries have routinely sanctioned Russia in a bid to cripple its economy over its unprovoked war in Ukraine.

www.businessinsider.com

Russia hasn’t instituted a draft because it doesn’t have the logistical capabilities to institute a general draft and we are already seeing military recruitment offices set on fire by anti-war Russians. A nationwide draft would cause a total collapse in civil administration and support for the war. The war is sold as conflict that was supposed to be easy and short. National mobilization would be admitting the war is a failure.


Europe was never going to completely cut off Russian oil over night but they are slowly but surely positioning themselves to do so. There has to wide spread restructuring and back rubbing but the time is coming

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

 

[shotemoffgp]

Russia also demanded NATO rule out further expansion, including the accession of Ukraine into the alliance, and that it does not hold drills without previous agreement from Russia in Ukraine, eastern Europe, in Caucasus countries such as Georgia or in Central Asia.


NATO said

because Russia can't back up any of that shyt.

i agree with you that there is a global power shift going on, you just got the direction of the shift all the way wrong.

Militarily, nato is stronger than russia. But this is about logistics. Besides america, nato countries need trade with russia. This isn't a replaceable resource, russia has their economies hostage. America is also in debt to china and is a service economy with low wages from China pushing profits.