Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (Official Thread)

[shotemoffgp]

Russia's economy is collapsing as exports to the sanctioned country plummet in the face of President Vladimir Putin's ongoing, unprovoked war in Ukraine, trade experts suggest.

The "economy is imploding. We forecast a GDP collapse of -30% by end-2022," Robin Brooks, the chief economist at the Institute of International Finance trade group, tweeted on Sunday.

Brooks added that data compiled with help from Jonathan Pingle, an IIF researcher, indicated that exports from 20 countries to Russia were down 50% in April compared to the same time a year prior.

Russia's economy is 'imploding' as exports to the sanctioned country plummet, economists say

European and Western countries have routinely sanctioned Russia in a bid to cripple its economy over its unprovoked war in Ukraine.

www.businessinsider.com

Russia hasn’t instituted a draft because it doesn’t have the logistical capabilities to institute a general draft and we are already seeing military recruitment offices set on fire by anti-war Russians. A nationwide draft would cause a total collapse in civil administration and support for the war. The war is sold as conflict that was supposed to be easy and short. National mobilization would be admitting the war is a failure.


Europe was never going to completely cut off Russian oil over night but they are slowly but surely positioning themselves to do so. There has to wide spread restructuring and back rubbing but the time is coming

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

If they're economy tanks, they might as as well cut off Europe from oil. They can take Europe with them.

 

[Hood Critic]

They really need to start dictating terms to nato, especially once that pipeline to China opens.

With what leverage?

Europe can weather the lack of Russian energy imports, it will be unpopular politically and have a short term economic effect. The flipside of that is, Russia has no other viable export to sustain its economy. Wheat alone isn't going to do it, especially since most of the world doesn't have access to it.

 

[shotemoffgp]

Russia is on track for a record trade surplus

Imports have collapsed, but exports are holding up

www.economist.com

That sanctions have boosted Russia’s trade surplus, and thus helped finance the war, is disappointing, says Mr Vistesen. Ms Ribakova reckons that the efficacy of financial sanctions may have reached its limits. A decision to tighten trade sanctions must come next.

The real war is in the sanctions. They'll have effect, but gas is the biggest bargaining chip. He got countries to fold to use the ruble, make them fold and export to russia.

 

[Mister Terrific]

If they're economy tanks, they might as as well cut off Europe from oil. They can take Europe with them.

Europe will be fine. They have been looking for an excuse to decouple from Oil for awhile now and Russia just provided the excuse. Besides when Russia collapses into 4-5 countries they will be able energy exports for even cheaper

 

[shotemoffgp]

Once those sanctions are defeqted, the narrative is official. New economic power outlook. It would done if power of Siberia was complete. Russia either needs to weather the storm and take immediate action, or wait until that pipe is complete. Didn't need military action against Ukraine Finland or sweden. They can control NATO economically.

 

[Orbital-Fetus]

Once those sanctions are defeqted, the narrative is official. New economic power outlook. It would done if power of Siberia was complete. Russia either needs to weather the storm and take immediate action, or wait until that pipe is complete. Didn't need military action against Ukraine Finland or sweden. They can control NATO economically.

i'm fairly certain that Nord Stream 2 is complete, Germany just won't certify it for use to punish Russia.

 

[Hood Critic]

Russia is on track for a record trade surplus

Imports have collapsed, but exports are holding up

www.economist.com

That sanctions have boosted Russia’s trade surplus, and thus helped finance the war, is disappointing, says Mr Vistesen. Ms Ribakova reckons that the efficacy of financial sanctions may have reached its limits. A decision to tighten trade sanctions must come next.

The real war is in the sanctions. They'll have effect, but gas is the biggest bargaining chip. He got countries to fold to use the ruble, make them fold and export to russia.

This talking point has been rebuffed numerous times in this thread by every rando who tries to tap dance around their idea that Russia is somehow economically unfazed by global isolation. I'm going to let 2 key points that start and end your own article do the work here:

Then the central bank raised interest rates, imposed capital controls and injected liquidity into the banking system, and some of these misfortunes reversed. Although a chunk of Russia’s currency reserves remains frozen, the country still generates about $1bn a day from its energy exports.

But such measures could take time to take effect. Even if the eu enacts its proposal to ban Russian oil, the embargo would be phased in so slowly that the bloc’s oil imports from Russia would fall by just 19% this year, says Liam Peach of Capital Economics, a consultancy. The full impact of these sanctions would be felt only at the start of 2023—by which point Mr Putin will have amassed billions to fund his war.

Economic sanctions don't bear fruit overnight. Funding the war and keeping your country afloat are two entirely different things.

 

[Orbital-Fetus]

Militarily, nato is stronger than russia. But this is about logistics. Besides america, nato countries need trade with russia. This isn't a replaceable resource, russia has their economies hostage. America is also in debt to china and is a service economy with low wages from China pushing profits.

my man, you really coming in here talking about LOGISTICS!?!?!

 

[Mister Terrific]

Russia is on track for a record trade surplus

Imports have collapsed, but exports are holding up

www.economist.com

That sanctions have boosted Russia’s trade surplus, and thus helped finance the war, is disappointing, says Mr Vistesen. Ms Ribakova reckons that the efficacy of financial sanctions may have reached its limits. A decision to tighten trade sanctions must come next.

The real war is in the sanctions. They'll have effect, but gas is the biggest bargaining chip. He got countries to fold to use the ruble, make them fold and export to russia.

Of course they have a trade surplus, they can’t buy anything from the west.

 

[Hood Critic]

Once those sanctions are defeqted, the narrative is official. New economic power outlook. It would done if power of Siberia was complete. Russia either needs to weather the storm and take immediate action, or wait until that pipe is complete. Didn't need military action against Ukraine Finland or sweden. They can control NATO economically.

In 6-8 months, Russia will have a shell of a military and its countrymen will be suffocated by inflation. Imagine thinking they will be in a position to dictate anything when half of the globe could carve the nation up and take most of it from them.

The longer they sustain this conflict, the weaker they will ultimately be.

 

[MoneyTron]

Once those sanctions are defeqted, the narrative is official. New economic power outlook. It would done if power of Siberia was complete. Russia either needs to weather the storm and take immediate action, or wait until that pipe is complete. Didn't need military action against Ukraine Finland or sweden. They can control NATO economically.

 

[Orbital-Fetus]

The only hope Russia has is getting someone like Trump back in power in the US to destabilise NATO.

imagine Trump getting reelected and having to back off all that "They need to contribute more to NATO" talk.
it would be hysterical.

 

[hashmander]

oh ok let me try this angry dap out. i'm not really angry, i find you funny, it's just that i feel that shyt posting should have a negative somewhere in your profile.

edit: i tried sad because that's probably a more accurate reflection of my feelings, i feel sad for you. but that didn't produce a negative so angry it is.

 

[Orbital-Fetus]

 

[Orbital-Fetus]