Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (Official Thread)

[Hood Critic]

My sincerest apologies, i confused it with the article regarding their oil revenue being up by 50 percent. Here's the link. Let me know if youd like an alternative source:

Russia Oil Revenue Up 50% This Year Despite Boycott, IEA Says

Why the Russian ruble just hit a 2-month high

Ruble hits 2-year high against the dollar as Russia tries to avoid default - CNN

Russian ruble makes large gains in spite of sanctions: are they working?

So i was right regarding the oil revenue and the Ruble rising, but I concede that i was wrong regarding the GDP.

You very well were correct on those but they are not good indicators of the state of the Russian economy, which is why I specifically pointed out the GDP contraction and rise in unemployment. Those are real economic indicators.

I'd also like to point out the fact that a lot of the reports on the ruble seem to ignore the rising inflation on the ruble which the Russian people are going to feel in the coming months. Sanctions don't have immediate impact, they are gradual.

 

[987654321]

Brother, I hear you. But the thing is, they are not making anymore land. Assad is already reforming diplomatic ties with Qatar and other wealthy arab nations. You can rebuild from the rubble, but you cant buy or make more land. It is better to hold the land than have nothing to rebuild on at all. The Russians will rebuild Mariupol the same way they rebuilt Chechnya. I turned off rich editor so i cant embed but google what Chechnya looks like now versus when the Russians took it over. Also, it's worth mentioning, the united states "leveled" Iraq and rebuilt it. We leveled Japan with TWO nuclear bombs, and look at that country now. Hell, look at Germany during WW2. Look at Vietnam after we bombed them to rubble with Napalm. What Russia is doing isn't new, and it's the way wars will be fought moving forward. If the defenders entrench in Urban areas, you either go door to door clearing the whole city and risk heavy causalities, or bomb them all to the ground. Like America did in Fallujah I hear your predication loud and clear brother. Let's see how everything plays out

Brother, I hear you. But the thing is, they are not making anymore land. Assad is already reforming diplomatic ties with Qatar and other wealthy arab nations. You can rebuild from the rubble, but you cant buy or make more land. It is better to hold the land than have nothing to rebuild on at all. The Russians will rebuild Mariupol the same way they rebuilt Chechnya. I turned off rich editor so i cant embed but google what Chechnya looks like now versus when the Russians took it over. Also, it's worth mentioning, the united states "leveled" Iraq and rebuilt it. We leveled Japan with TWO nuclear bombs, and look at that country now. Hell, look at Germany during WW2. Look at Vietnam after we bombed them to rubble with Napalm. What Russia is doing isn't new, and it's the way wars will be fought moving forward. If the defenders entrench in Urban areas, you either go door to door clearing the whole city and risk heavy causalities, or bomb them all to the ground. Like America did in Fallujah I hear your predication loud and clear brother. Let's see how everything plays out

 

[PewPew]

the examples you give are all valid but not all equal.
Russia's invasion was one of aggression, therefore all actions taken on their behalf are immoral and internationally recognized as illegal.
as for Germany and Japan, come on man...they started war with us. don't start none, won't be none.
Vietnam...Americans should have been brought up on war crimes at the highest levels of the U.S. govn.
as for Falluja, that falls under the umbrella of the U.S.'s Iraq invasion which is universally viewed as an illegal invasion.
Bush should be in prison just like Putin.

I agree with all your points. I brought up those examples as cities that have been "leveled" and rebuilt. However, I do think your analysis is spot on. Particularly in regards to the Iraq and Vietnam war.

 

[PewPew]

We leveled Iraq and Japan cities and rebuilt them with our Allies help.

Russia is leveling this cities without the money to rebuild and severing the economic ties with Allies. All these modern ships and ports require more advanced tech that is sourced parts from several places. Plus you need people in homes willing to live and work.


The more countries turn to other non Russia states for gas/oil, the people like China and India will have Russia over a barrel to set prices that would make it economically disastrous to sell.

This I dont agree with brother. Here is why. Russia still has plenty of allies by looking East, in the middle east, and in Africa. As small as they are, the BRICS block is still a thing. And China can easily provide the needed technological components needed to sustain the Russian economy. As far as the people, they can just bring in Russians to populate and live in those areas to stimulate the local economy. It wont be easy or quick, but they did it in Chechnya and they can do it in Ukraine.

Regarding your second point, I believe you are gravely mistaken. There is no other country that can make up the amount of gas/oil that Russia was shipping to the European countries:

The problem with shipping gas to Europe

As Long as Europe Depends on Gas, It Will Need Russia

Europe braces for gas crisis as Russia makes first move - CNN

How reliant is the world on Russia for oil and gas?

Sure, European countries can turn to green and nuclear energy to sustain themselves, but that will take a while to do. Meanwhile, theyre still buying Russian gas AND paying in Rubles:

Four European Gas Buyers Made Ruble Payments to Russia

Ten More European Gas Buyers Open Ruble Accounts for Payments

EU gives companies green light to buy gas from Russia

On top of that, Russia is an exporter or wheat and fertilizer, which is needed to feed the people in Europe. There are already food crises growing because of the lack of fertilizer and wheat going to Europe due to sanctions. And they're taking all the rich farm land in east Ukraine, which helped feed the people in Europe:

NPR Cookie Consent and Choices

Russia Makes Some Land Gains-- Persists in Strangling Ukrainian Grain Exports • Farm Policy News

The War in Ukraine Is Threatening the World's Wheat Supply

Global food crisis: Europe must choose between retreat and responsibility

Global Report on Food Crises: acute food insecurity hits new highs | International Partnerships

EU Warns Of Possible Food Crisis Sparked By Russia's War On Ukraine

The Fertilizer Crisis Is Getting Real for Europe Food Prices

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/06/a-f...iving-up-global-food-prices-and-scarcity.html

So Europe is faced with not enough oil/gas for their consumer and industrial needs, not enough wheat and fertilizer to feed all their people, and their beefing with the biggest supplier of both. Will Russia have to eventually lower the price of their oil/gas, sure they will. But that time is not coming soon, and it might not occur before the war is over

 

[PewPew]

You very well were correct on those but they are not good indicators of the state of the Russian economy, which is why I specifically pointed out the GDP contraction and rise in unemployment. Those are real economic indicators.

I'd also like to point out the fact that a lot of the reports on the ruble seem to ignore the rising inflation on the ruble which the Russian people are going to feel in the coming months. Sanctions don't have immediate impact, they are gradual.

Great analysis my friend. You are 100 percent right about the GDP and i can not argue or refute that point. The unemployment rate is actually not rising that fast, and they were at a record low for their economy just recently:

"Russia's unemployment rate stood at a record low of 4.1 percent in March of 2022, unchanged from February, below market forecasts of 4.5 percent. The number of unemployed people increased slightly by 7 thousand from a month earlier to 3.078 million and those officially registered as unemployed rose marginally to 0.838 million."

Russia Unemployment Rate - April 2022 Data - 1992-2021 Historical - May Forecast

With all the companies that have recently stopped doing business with Russia, it would make sense that the unemployment numbers would rise. But there's already companies in Russia trying to fill the gap. I guess we can wait and see on this one.

Inflation is at an all time high so I will give you that. Inflation is up in every country but it seems to be particularly high in Russia, so thats a very keen and wise observation

 

[PewPew]

I just want to make my position very clear, I am not a Russian supporter. To be all the way transparent, I dont give a flying fukk about Ukraine either. What prompted me to respond is when my man Orbital said Ukraine would retake all the stolen land by October, which seemed highly highly improbable to me. I do not think Ukraine can retake all that land with Russia now raining Artillery on them day and night, and making gains in strategic areas.

I believe Russia is going to split the country of Ukraine in two, but I do not see them losing or being rolled all the way back. THAT is my position.

 

[keithj]

Why do all Russiaset nikkas in this thread always have the same "I don't give a fukk about Ukriane OR Russia, but here's 10 reasons why Russia will win and btw did you know they're currently kinda, sorta winning now? You see the current map was the game plan all along - you don't understand Russian war strategy fool!" talking point.

And then nikkas dissapear once the overwhelming gravity of reality no longer aligns with their rhetoric. This has happened in this thread probably over 10 times now




Anyways, more Howitzers are on the way...

 

[Orbital-Fetus]

I agree with all your points. I brought up those examples as cities that have been "leveled" and rebuilt. However, I do think your analysis is spot on. Particularly in regards to the Iraq and Vietnam war.

then i assume you also agree that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a war of aggression and illegal.
therefore the leveling of cities whether or not there were military targets there or not is still a war crime.
it's an exercise in logic.

if this, then that.

you have already given the "if this" so now you gotta "then that".

stop wasting internet.

 

[Orbital-Fetus]

This I dont agree with brother. Here is why. Russia still has plenty of allies by looking East, in the middle east, and in Africa. As small as they are, the BRICS block is still a thing. And China can easily provide the needed technological components needed to sustain the Russian economy. As far as the people, they can just bring in Russians to populate and live in those areas to stimulate the local economy. It wont be easy or quick, but they did it in Chechnya and they can do it in Ukraine.

why go through so much trouble and kill so many people though?

why?

 

[Orbital-Fetus]

I just want to make my position very clear, I am not a Russian supporter. To be all the way transparent, I dont give a flying fukk about Ukraine either. What prompted me to respond is when my man Orbital said Ukraine would retake all the stolen land by October, which seemed highly highly improbable to me. I do not think Ukraine can retake all that land with Russia now raining Artillery on them day and night, and making gains in strategic areas.

I believe Russia is going to split the country of Ukraine in two, but I do not see them losing or being rolled all the way back. THAT is my position.

if your prediction is that Russia will split Ukraine in two, then congrats.
you already won that "prediction" because it already happened; Crimea.

so long as Crimea stays in Russian possession, your "prediction" is true.

Ukraine takes Crimea by Oct.

 

[88m3]

 

[PewPew]

then i assume you also agree that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a war of aggression and illegal.
therefore the leveling of cities whether or not there were military targets there or not is still a war crime.
it's an exercise in logic.

if this, then that.

you have already given the "if this" so now you gotta "then that".

stop wasting internet.

Not sure why this is getting hostile but sure, the Russian war is illegal. Does that make you feel better?

While we were at it, it was illegal for us to go into Iraq and vietnam. When will you start a thread crying about the Iraqs who were killed and the power vacuum that was started in that country that lead to more deaths??

It was illegal for us to try and regime change Syria. It was incredibly fukked up how we did Libya, which was the richest country in Africa before we went in

We are still actively helping the Saudias kill poor Yemen citizens, I don’t see you crying about them. We are actively helping Israel kill poor people in Palestine TO THIS DAY. We provide them with military equipment and bombs to do so

I don’t understand why you have such a boner for Ukraine. If we are keeping it a buck, every conflict after WW2 was illegal depending on who you ask, so why pick and choose?

I hate imperialism with all my heart because I saw first hand the damage it did to my home country so I’m not going to champion Russia doing it.

 

[PewPew]

if your prediction is that Russia will split Ukraine in two, then congrats.
you already won that "prediction" because it already happened; Crimea.

so long as Crimea stays in Russian possession, your "prediction" is true.

Ukraine takes Crimea by Oct.

My predication is that Ukraine WILL NOT take Crimea by October, and they will LOSE eastern Ukraine to the Russians.

That is my predication, and only that. Everything else in between I don’t give a fukk about.

I’ve been negotiating and talking to you in good faith. I’m the only one trying to have an adult and civil discourse and not resorting to silly memes and name calling. I’m the only one posting links from verified United States based news sources to support my position and what I say

Ukraine will not retake Crimea by October and they are going to lose Eastern Ukraine. Time will tell who is right. And if it’s you, I will gladly tell you I’m wrong

 

[Json]

This I dont agree with brother. Here is why. Russia still has plenty of allies by looking East, in the middle east, and in Africa. As small as they are, the BRICS block is still a thing. And China can easily provide the needed technological components needed to sustain the Russian economy. As far as the people, they can just bring in Russians to populate and live in those areas to stimulate the local economy. It wont be easy or quick, but they did it in Chechnya and they can do it in Ukraine.

Considering China is the one contracted to build on large scale in Africa. I’m not sure how you are getting that Russia will get African nations to help on these large scale projects.
Same to the Middle East. Russia and China are the main non- American sources of funding for major projects.

So China is there only source of partnership and China can be squeezed to limit its involvement by the larger block of Western nations removing funding and trade cooperation.

Regarding your second point, I believe you are gravely mistaken. There is no other country that can make up the amount of gas/oil that Russia was shipping to the European countries:

That’s true but that’s not exactly what I said. I said they would be selling their gas/oil at such a rate that it would be less profitable. They are already giving discounted oil to China. Not because Russia is setting the price, but because they have to sell the oil after a certain point.

On top of that, Russia is an exporter or wheat and fertilizer, which is needed to feed the people in Europe. There are already food crises growing because of the lack of fertilizer and wheat going to Europe due to sanctions. And they're taking all the rich farm land in east Ukraine, which helped feed the people in Europe:

So Europe is faced with not enough oil/gas for their consumer and industrial needs, not enough wheat and fertilizer to feed all their people, and their beefing with the biggest supplier of both. Will Russia have to eventually lower the price of their oil/gas, sure they will. But that time is not coming soon, and it might not occur before the war is over

Russia is stealing Ukraine wheat and fertilizer and salting the land. If Russia was really that strong on grain exports they would be taking the land, not destroying it. Russia can’t even use the tractors they are trying to steal from Ukraine to replace their own. What good is farm land without the tools to work it effectively?

Ukrainian John Deere tractors stolen by Russia 'bricked'

 

[88m3]

lets go