The 49ers’ evolving run game: Just how good is Raheem Mostert?
By David Lombardi 5h ago
11
Raheem Mostert’s 220-yard, four-touchdown explosion in the NFC Championship Game last January made the 49ers running back a household name.
The performance also underscored some important questions about the future of the position group, questions that were further accentuated by the 49ers’ trade of Matt Breida — their second-leading rusher last season — to the Miami Dolphins in April.
Just how good is Mostert? And how important are individual running backs in this day and age, which has seen the
analytics crowd arguethat backs are more replaceable than ever?
Even though Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers forego the old-school bell-cow approach and divvy up their workload among many running backs,
they’re still spending more salary-cap space on their offensive backfield than any team in the NFL.
Big contracts awarded to fullback Kyle Juszczyk and running back Jerick McKinnon in recent years are the main factors. And, to add to the possible positional price tag, there’s been
talk of Mostert signing a new deal this offseason.
Given how important the run game is to Shanahan — the Ravens (54.1 percent) and the 49ers (51.4 percent) were the only two NFL teams to run more than half the time in 2019 — it’s worth taking a deeper look at the offensive backfield’s performance.
Mostert, Breida and Tevin Coleman were the 49ers’ primary ball carriers last season. Jeff Wilson was the fourth option, but he didn’t qualify for the advanced metrics because he only had 27 carries.
49ers RBs: 2019 performance
RB
ATT
YPC
DVOA
SR
E-RTG
8+ BOX
Mostert
137
5.6
26.8%
53%
86.3
32.1%
Breida
123
5.1
-1.8%
46%
40.9
30.1%
Coleman
137
4.0
-15.3%
39%
31.3
40.2%
We’ll go through this stat by stat.
Mostert and Coleman had the exact same workload, 137 carries, during the regular season. Mostert followed that with 53 postseason carries compared to Coleman’s 33. Breida had only nine carries in the playoffs.
Mostert led all NFL running backs with a regular-season average of 5.6 yards per carry (YPC), trailing only Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson among all players in that category. Breida was also efficient at 5.1 yards per carry, well ahead of Coleman’s 4 yards per carry.
Beyond that, Mostert’s defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) led all NFL running backs by a wide margin. DVOA, a stat from
Football Outsiders, weighs the significance of yardage (a 4-yard gain on third-and-3 scores better than a 4-yard gain on third-and-5, for example). While Mostert excelled, both Breida and Coleman scored below average here.
Meanwhile, Mostert’s success rate (SR) — a Football Outsiders’ measure of how consistently a positive play was attained based on down and distance — ranked ninth of 45 qualifying running backs. Breida and Coleman both ranked below average at 30th and 44th, respectively.
Now, there’s a problem with simply taking those numbers at face value and concluding that Mostert was the 49ers’ best back. Statistically, it’s impossible to fully separate a runner’s performance from the work of the blockers in front of him and the performance of the opposing defense — especially since Shanahan uses different backs for different situations.
The right-most number, from NFL Next Gen Stats, measures the percentage of time that each 49ers running back worked against an eight-man defensive box (8+ BOX). It’s worth noting that Coleman ran against such aggressive defenses over 40 percent of the time — more often than any other qualifying back in the NFL. It’s safe to say that this at least partially explains why Coleman lagged in other efficiency metrics.
This is where elusive rating (E-RTG) from
Pro Football Focus comes in to help us partially sort matters out. Through a formula based on missed tackles forced and yards averaged after contact, elusive rating strives to separate a runner’s performance from factors outside his control.
The formula:
(Missed tackles Forced) / (designed run attempts + receptions) * (yards after contact per attempt * 100).
Mostert’s elusive rating of 86.3 was third best among qualifying NFL backs, behind only the Raiders’ Josh Jacobs and the Browns’ Nick Chubb. This suggests that there was more to Mostert’s success than just good 49ers’ play design and run blocking — though those two components of the offense were indeed excellent.
Yards before contact per rush
- Jackson, Ravens: 4.9
- Mostert, 49ers: 3.5
- Breida, 49ers: 3.3
- Christian McCaffrey, Panthers: 3.0
- Kenyan Drake, Dolphins/Cardinals: 2.8
Mostert made the most of a good situation. His statistical surge helps explain why the 49ers considered Breida expendable in that trade for a fifth-round pick and why Mostert projects to be the lead back in 2020.
Let’s pivot to the makeup of the 49ers’ backfield moving forward.
On a Zoom call with local reporters last month, Mostert said that he’s added muscle so that he can approach or even exceed 200 carries in 2020.
“I’ve got to get prepared for that, and the only way I know how is to get bulky and stronger,” Mostert said.
Here’s how he stacked up against some of the league’s top backs.
Mostert vs. select NFL RBs, 2019
RB
ATT
YPC
DVOA
SR
E-RTG
8+ BOX
Mostert
137
5.6
26.8%
53%
86.3
32.1%
Ingram
202
5.0
19.8%
60%
58.6
22.3%
Drake
170
4.8
19.7%
51%
47.7
8.8%
Elliott
301
4.5
16.5%
56%
52.8
19.3%
McCaffrey
287
4.8
14.9%
47%
48.8
23.3%
Henry
303
5.1
6.7%
50%
77.3
35.3%
Chubb
298
5.0
4.5%
45%
89.1
13.1%
Jacobs
242
4.8
3.5%
51%
103.6
20.3%
Carson
278
4.4
1.9%
57%
85.2
21.2%
Barkley
217
4.6
0.4%
44%
63.6
11.5%
The five running backs listed above the line in bold ranked as the NFL’s top five per DVOA. The five below the line are an assorted collection of other league backs. A look at their numbers gives more perspective on Mostert’s performance and what we can expect from him in 2020 and beyond.
The table is sortable by category, so Mostert’s solid elusive rating and success rate can be better appreciated through this lens: He faced eight-man boxes more often than every back listed above other than Tennessee power runner Derrick Henry.
Workload is the primary question moving forward. Can Mostert maintain his excellent efficiency even if he’s exposed to more bruises?
Mostert didn’t carry the ball as often as the other top backs on this list, but the 49ers must now deal with the loss of Breida. The numbers suggest that the 49ers also can use better efficiency from Coleman, whose 137-carry workload didn’t rate well.
The potential answer for those gaps won’t rest fully on Mostert’s shoulders, but uncertainty amongst the position group’s other potential contributors makes it easy to see why he’s bracing himself for more action in 2020.
McKinnon,
though he’s working hard with Washington’s Adrian Peterson this offseason, hasn’t played a down in two seasons. Wilson was mostly a short-yardage specialist for the 49ers last year and he’s likely still best suited for that role moving forward.
That’s intensified the buzz around undrafted rookies JaMycal Hasty and Salvon Ahmed. Shanahan has said that he strongly prefers to carry four running backs on the active roster — this was the case in Super Bowl LIV — and Hasty or Ahmed could theoretically push Coleman, McKinnon or Wilson for one of those spots.
Both Hasty and Ahmed showed good receiving ability in college, which is a prerequisite to play in Shanahan’s system. Mostert said that he’s working on his receiving game this offseason since the 49ers are aiming to make their offense even more multifaceted in 2020.
But expect the rushing attack to remain the unit’s heartbeat.
Throughout the regular season and playoffs, the 49ers ran the ball a total of 609 times last season. Mostert took 190 — or about 31 percent — of those carries.
What chunk of the remaining 69 percent will Mostert fill moving forward? How much will be dedicated to the 49ers’ ever-expanding end-around sweep game, led by receiver Deebo Samuel, and just how many carries could new running backs take in 2020?
Those are key questions without firm answers right now. Because although the 49ers’ run game was very good last season, the numbers beyond Mostert suggest that there’s plenty of room for improvement
,
we dont need @South Paw in here calling nikkas to watch the Super Bowl bruh. that nikka might be making a watch party banner right now
Wait......
that pick in the first game was impressive af for a rookie LB in coverage
