Put Some Hornacek On Our Game: 2016 New York Knicks Offseason Thread

[Liquid]

So no answer huh?

Again, you have several pages from members who have made legitimate arguments as to why he should be traded.

You have shown that you think with your emotions when it comes to this topic, while others are looking at the net gain/loss probability. I thank Carmelo for that 54 win season, but it's over. The Carmelo/Amar'e experiment failed and the Melo/KP combo won't ever see both of them in their prime together. It is time to move the fukk on and have it end up mutually beneficial for the organization and the player in decline.

 

[seemorecizzy]

We had no picks in many of those awful years and no promising prospect.

Carmelo is a net negative in the long run on this team and it's a shame that some of you guy's STILL don't see it.

We drafted a lot of promising talent
David lee ariza Nate, Danilo, Chandler etc
And we missed out on even more with bad picks and bad luck
I don't no what your talking about

I don't no what your definition of "long run" is
But melo is good for this teams immediate future. Theres nothing to gain by trading him

 

[seemorecizzy]

Again, you have several pages from members who have made legitimate arguments as to why he should be traded.

You have shown that you think with your emotions when it comes to this topic, while others are looking at the net gain/loss probability. I thank Carmelo for that 54 win season, but it's over. The Carmelo/Amar'e experiment failed and the Melo/KP combo won't ever see both of them in their prime together. It is time to move the fukk on and have it end up mutually beneficial for the organization and the player in decline.

U answered nothing
Sounds like u just got a personal vendetta against melo

 

[Liquid]

U answered nothing
Sounds like u just got a personal vendetta against melo

I've answered plenty, it's not my fault you guys can't let go.

We drafted a lot of promising talent
David lee ariza Nate, Danilo, Chandler etc
And we missed out on even more with bad picks and bad luck
I don't no what your talking about

I don't no what your definition of "long run" is
But melo is good for this teams immediate future. Theres nothing to gain by trading him

NONE of those players had a very high ceiling, you guys are out of your goddamn minds.

This cat said Nate Robinson, man I'm going to bed.

 

[K-Deini]

trading melo right now doesnt really help us since we have no draft pick, so we cant tank. if we had one that would be a different story.

any trade package isnt going to give us a top pick, thanks to the ntc limiting our options. i also think the rockets or heat would still offer us the same deal whether its in the middle of this season or in the off-season. so im willing to let the year ride out and see if he and kp can lure some free agents over the off-season. and if they cant, then explore all options.

 

[storyteller]

Carmelo Anthony 2015-16 Splits | Basketball-Reference.com

Look at those W/L splits for Melo...My hypothesis, this team goes as far as Melo takes it. Trading Melo means the wheels fall off because this team is built to feed off of his success and the splits tell that story pretty well so far.

 

[Malta]

trading melo right now doesnt really help us since we have no draft pick, so we cant tank. if we had one that would be a different story.

any trade package isnt going to give us a top pick, thanks to the ntc limiting our options. i also think the rockets or heat would still offer us the same deal whether its in the middle of this season or in the off-season. so im willing to let the year ride out and see if he and kp can lure some free agents over the off-season. and if they cant, then explore all options.

You don't need to tank to get value back for Melo, you already got a potential franchise player in the recent draft, moving Melo would be to free up caproom and get back young assets. What are the chances the Knicks make the playoffs? The team who gets the 8th seed this year is probably going to have a winning record, as it stands all the teams in the hunt for the 8th spot are better than the Knicks and have a + pt differential (Hawks/Pistons).

Also, the free agent crop this summer isn't very good, take a look for yourself -
NBA Free Agency 2016: The top players

Carmelo Anthony 2015-16 Splits | Basketball-Reference.com

Look at those W/L splits for Melo...My hypothesis, this team goes as far as Melo takes it. Trading Melo means the wheels fall off because this team is built to feed off of his success and the splits tell that story pretty well so far.

The Knicks are most likely going to miss the playoffs, so how far is Melo taking them? The East is better and squeaking in to the playoffs with a 36-46 record doesn't seem like it'll be good enough this year, as it stands the Hawks, Wiz and Bucks are also on the outside looking in so it's going to be a competitive battle for the 7th & 8th spots.

If the Knicks are out of the playoff race by the trade deadline and the Rockets come with some solid offer to save their season, do you turn it down? At what point do you realize that having Melo on the Knicks isn't moving the needle enough, especially when there are teams in the East that are young with solid rosters (Pistons/Magic) that won't be going away.

 

[storyteller]

The Knicks are most likely going to miss the playoffs, so how far is Melo taking them? The East is better and squeaking in to the playoffs with a 36-46 record doesn't seem like it'll be good enough this year, as it stands the Hawks, Wiz and Bucks are also on the outside looking in so it's going to be a competitive battle for the 7th & 8th spots.

If the Knicks are out of the playoff race by the trade deadline and the Rockets come with some solid offer to save their season, do you turn it down?

Well to start with, I don't agree with "the Knicks are most likely going to miss the playoffs" because it's a gross oversimplification. How far can Melo take them? His averages in our wins are right around his career averages, which suggests that Melo at his typical production gives us a solid shot at the playoffs. So theoretically, if he gets back to healthy Melo, we should be competitive and get closer to 40 wins than 35. Even so, I fully acknowledge that there's gonna be a real battle for 7th and 8th and that might not be enough to get them there...but that doesn't preclude me to dealing him in a rush since we don't have a draft pick anyway and my belief is we'll get better offers in the offseason. At that time there will be teams who miss on the max FA's available and will need to bounce back on alternatives. Melo would become an attractive option when he otherwise wouldn't have been.

So if the Knicks are out of the playoff race by the deadline, the Rockets still have to give me a BIG return. Otherwise, I'll hold off based on an educated risk. I'd be counting on his knee improving and thus his play improving which would in turn increase his value. I'd also count on the teams who miss on FA's being more open to a deal for Melo than they would have been (and in that scenario they can eat his contract without us having to match contracts). So this is not to advocate hanging on to Melo at all costs at all. This is saying that I believe the best way to maximize his value is a more patient approach and that would also buy us more time (and information) to have clarity in our next roster moves.

 

[Liquid]

Carmelo Anthony 2015-16 Splits | Basketball-Reference.com

Look at those W/L splits for Melo...My hypothesis, this team goes as far as Melo takes it. Trading Melo means the wheels fall off because this team is built to feed off of his success and the splits tell that story pretty well so far.

Yeah? How does our record look in an improving east this season?

In convinced that you guys are delusional because Melo has been the only consistent all star this franchise has had since Ewing.

 

[Liquid]

You don't need to tank to get value back for Melo, you already got a potential franchise player in the recent draft, moving Melo would be to free up caproom and get back young assets. What are the chances the Knicks make the playoffs? The team who gets the 8th seed this year is probably going to have a winning record, as it stands all the teams in the hunt for the 8th spot are better than the Knicks and have a + pt differential (Hawks/Pistons).

Also, the free agent crop this summer isn't very good, take a look for yourself -
NBA Free Agency 2016: The top players






The Knicks are most likely going to miss the playoffs, so how far is Melo taking them? The East is better and squeaking in to the playoffs with a 36-46 record doesn't seem like it'll be good enough this year, as it stands the Hawks, Wiz and Bucks are also on the outside looking in so it's going to be a competitive battle for the 7th & 8th spots.

If the Knicks are out of the playoff race by the trade deadline and the Rockets come with some solid offer to save their season, do you turn it down? At what point do you realize that having Melo on the Knicks isn't moving the needle enough, especially when there are teams in the East that are young with solid rosters (Pistons/Magic) that won't be going away.

That makes it even worse because Dolan doesn't even get those extra playoff ticket sales he cares so much about

What do you think Houston offers?

 

[Malta]

Well to start with, I don't agree with "the Knicks are most likely going to miss the playoffs" because it's a gross oversimplification. How far can Melo take them? His averages in our wins are right around his career averages, which suggests that Melo at his typical production gives us a solid shot at the playoffs. So theoretically, if he gets back to healthy Melo, we should be competitive and get closer to 40 wins than 35. Even so, I fully acknowledge that there's gonna be a real battle for 7th and 8th and that might not be enough to get them there...but that doesn't preclude me to dealing him in a rush since we don't have a draft pick anyway and my belief is we'll get better offers in the offseason. At that time there will be teams who miss on the max FA's available and will need to bounce back on alternatives. Melo would become an attractive option when he otherwise wouldn't have been.

They are most likely going to miss the playoffs, you can call it what you want but the fact remains there are teams better situated for making a run than they are. The problem with your stats are that the Knicks are 4-10 vs teams above .500 and Melo's best games have come vs so-so teams. Lets stop and analyze this real quick, we're talking about a max player here and the goal is getting the 7th or 8th seed . The East is no longer that weak, and he's not as good as he was 3 years ago, if they can't make the playoffs with him there's no point in having him. He has a NTC, you're not going to be able to move him to whoever you want in the offseason and if he continues playing like he has then his value will drop.

So if the Knicks are out of the playoff race by the deadline, the Rockets still have to give me a BIG return. Otherwise, I'll hold off based on an educated risk. I'd be counting on his knee improving and thus his play improving which would in turn increase his value. I'd also count on the teams who miss on FA's being more open to a deal for Melo than they would have been (and in that scenario they can eat his contract without us having to match contracts). So this is not to advocate hanging on to Melo at all costs at all. This is saying that I believe the best way to maximize his value is a more patient approach and that would also buy us more time (and information) to have clarity in our next roster moves.

The best way to maximize his value is to trade him while his value is still high, and he has a NTC so getting a big return on him isn't likely since he can pick his destination. He's 31, you're counting on him getting better or returning to form after a knee surgery? You're not getting big returns in the offseason, you're getting them from a team that is desperate, if the Heat fall out the playoff race you take aim at them, if the Rockets continue to stink it up you go to them. That is how you get the best value for him, not by waiting for him to turn 32 and have scouts take a closer look at him during the season.

 

[Malta]

That makes it even worse because Dolan doesn't even get those extra playoff ticket sales he cares so much about

What do you think Houston offers?

Houston has enough assets to get a 3rd team involved so it's really up in the air.

 

[storyteller]

Yeah? How does our record look in an improving east this season?

In convinced that you guys are delusional because Melo has been the only consistent all star this franchise has had since Ewing.

I'm convinced my point flew over your head. Like it or not, this team will only go as far as Melo goes. When he hits his career averages they win, that's what the stats say. So if you're saying Melo won't hit his career norms because of the injury or because he's regressed, that's cool. If you're saying we won't win when he hits his norms, you'll have to show me actual statistics to correlate with that belief. Otherwise, the point has nothing to do with how good or bad he is, it's just looking at the numbers and using them to make a logical conclusion. You cats throw a hissy fit when Zemapros dismisses the numbers, so don't play the "you're delusional" crap when the stats don't support your preferred narrative now.

 

[DPresidential]

@storyteller

I'm hoping Melo's last words of advice before he retires as a Knick, to Porzingis..."Worry about yourself and your legacy more than ANY team. Your brand means you demand a team to do what's best for you or you leave."

fukk a team.

Even though I'm a KnicksFam, when it comes to individual players incantation be made if they do for self.

 

[storyteller]

They are most likely going to miss the playoffs, you can call it what you want but the fact remains there are teams better situated for making a run than they are. The problem with your stats are that the Knicks are 4-10 vs teams above .500 and Melo's best games have come vs so-so teams. Lets stop and analyze this real quick, we're talking about a max player here and the goal is getting the 7th or 8th seed . The East is no longer that weak, and he's not as good as he was 3 years ago, if they can't make the playoffs with him there's no point in having him. He has a NTC, you're not going to be able to move him to whoever you want in the offseason and if he continues playing like he has then his value will drop.

You can say it as many times as you want, it's not a fact that the Knicks most likely miss the playoffs. When Melo shoots over 45% from the field we're 6-3; when you expand for him shooting 40% or better we're 8-3. That's not a great sample size, but it's at least enough to make a simple hypothesis; if Melo shoots around his norm, we've got a shot at being a .500 team and making the playoffs. Purely number based conclusion here. You don't think Melo can hit those averages over the course of the season, I dig that, he's off knee surgery and older...but I think the knee recovery is gonna continue to take time. I'll sweat more about it if he's still looking flat in February, which still leaves a few weeks to see our trade options.

The best way to maximize his value is to trade him while his value is still high, and he has a NTC so getting a big return on him isn't likely since he can pick his destination. He's 31, you're counting on him getting better or returning to form after a knee surgery? You're not getting big returns in the offseason, you're getting them from a team that is desperate, if the Heat fall out the playoff race you take aim at them, if the Rockets continue to stink it up you go to them. That is how you get the best value for him, not by waiting for him to turn 32 and have scouts take a closer look at him during the season.

I'm counting on him to get better than he has been so far, yes. Because 41% from the field would literally be the lowest he's ever shot from the field and I think recovering from a knee surgery takes time but happens plenty nowadays (we're not even talking a torn ligament here). In terms of desperate deadline teams, for sure it might happen...but it's just as likely that a team whiffs on max FA's and gets desperate in the offseason. Basically our disagreement here falls to the fact that you think this is as good as Melo gets from now on and I don't...I think he'll play his value higher as the season progresses and I'd hedge my bets on that; you think he's not going to get better and you'd rather move him before the cat's out of the bag. We can agree to disagree and revisit the conversation closer to the deadline; because like I said, if Melo's still flat in Feb. I'll start changing my tune.