Put Some Hornacek On Our Game: 2016 New York Knicks Offseason Thread

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I.V.

I.V.

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storyteller said:
Just wanted to add some statistical backing to my theory that mid-late first rounders are being over valued; I swore Nate Silver's site did some serious value analysis but couldn't find it. Here's a more simplistic version but theoretically, calling up a D-Leaguer can give you more production than having a late round rookie. The debate is obviously that the late first will be more productive long term but guys like galloway, Tyler Johnson, Hassan Whiteside and Bryce Dejean-Jones are making a case that wise use of the D-League can get you returns from players with plenty of upside in their own right. Adding fair info here, the sample size for D-League players is a lot smaller than late round rooks so until we have a larger sample this is speculative stuff at it's highest...

D-League Players vs. Late First Round Picks: A Surprising Result | The Wages of Wins Journal
Click to expand...


A couple of important points about this "study"
- The sample size for their initial point is a DISASTER
- Their original point, about undrafted players getting called up was NOT held-over for their larger "study" for players in the league... many of which were drafted, but ended up in the D-league, and getting called up after playing 1-6 years of pro ball
- Hassan Whiteside was a projected lottery pick, and drafted 33rd after some off the court issues

Throwing Whiteside in there with Tyler Johnson isn't exactly apples to apples.
 
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I.V. said:
A couple of important points about this "study"
- The sample size for their initial point is a DISASTER
- Their original point, about undrafted players getting called up was NOT held-over for their larger "study" for players in the league... many of which were drafted, but ended up in the D-league, and getting called up after playing 1-6 years of pro ball
- Hassan Whiteside was a projected lottery pick, and drafted 33rd after some off the court issues

Throwing Whiteside in there with Tyler Johnson isn't exactly apples to apples.
Click to expand...

I said that the sample sizes are off in my initial post.

Players who were drafted and wound up in the D-League kinda hits on my point here. There are a good deal of examples of players who were drafted and waived after their rookie contracts which are locked into guaranteed money. That collection of players is a great example of how a mid to late draft pick can end up being a negative value. They cost their drafting squads money and then wind up called up after years of experience by a different team for minimum contract money.

Hassan Whiteside fits that second group pretty well. He fell to the second round in 2010 and was a negative value for the extent of his rookie contract (and because of his high profile, he got guaranteed money). But as a still young D-League call up, he was a steal. What exactly does that prove in terms of the value of picks versus the value of taking players with pro experience for less? Just to paraphrase this, Whiteside being a successful call-up from the D League for the Heat after costing double the price of a minimum contract to do nothing the Kings 5 years ago does nothing to refute the notion that draft picks are overvalued.
 
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