Put Some Hornacek On Our Game: 2016 New York Knicks Offseason Thread

I.V.

I.V.

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storyteller said:
Hassan Whiteside fits that second group pretty well. He fell to the second round in 2010 and was a negative value for the extent of his rookie contract (and because of his high profile, he got guaranteed money). But as a still young D-League call up, he was a steal. What exactly does that prove in terms of the value of picks versus the value of taking players with pro experience for less? Just to paraphrase this, Whiteside being a successful call-up from the D League for the Heat after costing double the price of a minimum contract to do nothing the Kings 5 years ago does nothing to refute the notion that draft picks are overvalued.
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Yeah, but the problem with this logic is... the Heat are about to lose control over him to Free Agency.

And your "Well, middle rounders don't really matter that much" is the kind of thinking that leads to Bargnani-type trades. "Oh, that pick will be in the 20's -- we'll just buy or trade for a second rounder"

Young, viable depth matters. Guaranteeing your ability to have them, relatively cheap, for relatively long, should they pan out, matters. I think we should be betting on our management being able to evaluate talent, especially in light of the Porzingis pick, and the Grant trade, and the Lance signing, and the Gallo signing. I think we should bet ON them picking the right player, than use the possibility that a player might not pan out as some type of boogieman.

Look at the dudes taken in the middle ten of the draft last year: Turner, Lyles, Booker, Oubre, Grant, Anderson

20-30: Portis, Hollis Jefferson, Nance

Those are good guys to have in your rotation, if not good starting quality players RIGHT NOW. At the ages of 19-22.

And sure, there's gonna be a tyus jones in there, but even if it's just 50-50 you get a long-term starter... those are still good odds.

A bunch of picks matter when you're giving Sasha Vujacic significant minutes.

I'm not arguing a straight-up "trade melo" line, because I don't necessarily know that THAT is the answer, but I know that this team needs more talent. A bunch more. And I now our franchise player's track is the opposite of the player for whom we are paying lots of money.

We aren't a playoff team this year. I tried to explain that almost two months ago, and nobody wanted to hear it.

And there is a very good chance, based on current trajectories, that we will struggle to be a playoff team next season. (Obviously this does not account for us signing, let's say Durant)

You have to think in 5+ year increments when building a team. That's what the spurs do. That's what the Warriors have done. Look at how Miami is failing now. Look at how strapped Cleveland is. The Clippers. The Rockets.

Consistency is hard, and it demands constant care.


Anyway, I doubt we make a major move. I just, as always, think we need to get real about the fact that this team is still REALLY short on talent. And you have to figure a way to increase it, because we've seen that just hitting on one great player is rarely enough.
 
storyteller

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I.V. said:
Yeah, but the problem with this logic is... the Heat are about to lose control over him to Free Agency.

And your "Well, middle rounders don't really matter that much" is the kind of thinking that leads to Bargnani-type trades. "Oh, that pick will be in the 20's -- we'll just buy or trade for a second rounder"
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The Heat are on the discussing trading him for Dwight Howard, they're potentially turning a D-League pick up into Dwight Howard.Is there any first round pick that could get that return? I think we'll see teams learn from these initial screw ups and including team options to at least keep RFA status on D-Leaguers moving forward. But that's pure speculation.
Also, you misrepresent my point here and jump to hyperbole fam. My point "Mid to late first rounders are being overvalued" is far from "middle rounders don't really matter that much." Middle rounders production is replaceable and many of those players will be approaching their second contract before they have true value, that's my assertion. Nothing more and nothing less.

I.V. said:
Young, viable depth matters. Guaranteeing your ability to have them, relatively cheap, for relatively long, should they pan out, matters. I think we should be betting on our management being able to evaluate talent, especially in light of the Porzingis pick, and the Grant trade, and the Lance signing, and the Gallo signing. I think we should bet ON them picking the right player, than use the possibility that a player might not pan out as some type of boogieman.

Look at the dudes taken in the middle ten of the draft last year: Turner, Lyles, Booker, Oubre, Grant, Anderson

20-30: Portis, Hollis Jefferson, Nance

Those are good guys to have in your rotation, if not good starting quality players RIGHT NOW. At the ages of 19-22.
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Mid to late firsts removes the lottery guys from the equation so 16 and later are the main picks I'm looking at (ie: likely the only sorts of picks Boston was willing to give up for Melo. Turner (10), Lyles (11), Booker (13) and Oubre (15) would fall out of that discussion and you'd be sitting on 5 picks out of 15...or a 1 in 3 hit rate. But to be fair it's a bunch of rookies, they could progress plenty in the course of their contracts. I'd point more to a draft class like 2012 where we can see players with years of development and only a handful are starting quality. To be fair, 2013 was a pretty deep draft with a lot of capable players going later, but that draft was also extremely weak at the top. So guys like Bennett and Len went top five.

I.V. said:
And sure, there's gonna be a tyus jones in there, but even if it's just 50-50 you get a long-term starter... those are still good odds.

A bunch of picks matter when you're giving Sasha Vujacic significant minutes.
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It's not 50-50 from 15 on, I'm not even positive it's 50/50 from 10 on tbh. You SHOULD get NBA caliber talent, but starting caliber talent is harder to find. Especially under the parameters of mid to late picks. As far as Sasha getting significant minutes, you could get better caliber players from the D-League or when the friggin' CBA season ends than Sasha Vujacic. You don't need a bunch of picks to fill out a rotation and you can absolutely fill in the bottom of the roster with affordable guys without needing picks. In fact, you can do it without guaranteed money commitments.

I.V. said:
I'm not arguing a straight-up "trade melo" line, because I don't necessarily know that THAT is the answer, but I know that this team needs more talent. A bunch more. And I now our franchise player's track is the opposite of the player for whom we are paying lots of money.

We aren't a playoff team this year. I tried to explain that almost two months ago, and nobody wanted to hear it.
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Fair enough, I'm not advocating a hardline keep Melo stance either. My assertion on first rounders came because the Boston trade discussion included assertions that we won't even get the BK pick in the deal. To which my response was "the deal absolutely has to include that first and it's still shaky because the rest of the picks are mid to late picks." My stance, which hasn't shifted, is that there will be more offers for Melo in the offseason when teams have added cap space which eases the salary matching implications.

I.V. said:
And there is a very good chance, based on current trajectories, that we will struggle to be a playoff team next season. (Obviously this does not account for us signing, let's say Durant)

You have to think in 5+ year increments when building a team. That's what the spurs do. That's what the Warriors have done. Look at how Miami is failing now. Look at how strapped Cleveland is. The Clippers. The Rockets.

Consistency is hard, and it demands constant care.
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So the first thing is, we have our pick next season. We can struggle to make the playoffs and we end up with a lottery pick worst case scenario. Second, thinking in 5 year increments doesn't require bringing in an abundance of first rounders so much as it requires maintaining flexibility. Draft picks is just the most obvious way to keep costs low and has the added bonus of hope. But signing players to smart contracts can be just as impactful. Obviously if the team is going to miss the playoffs next season, dumping Melo makes sense...but the team has cap space to see what it can pick up before forcing him out and condemning itself to a rebuild that is guaranteed to take a few years, plus the return on trade could be better.

I.V. said:
Anyway, I doubt we make a major move. I just, as always, think we need to get real about the fact that this team is still REALLY short on talent. And you have to figure a way to increase it, because we've seen that just hitting on one great player is rarely enough.
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The team is short on talent, the rotation has clear holes. However, if you're thinking in a 5 year increment, then the 20 million dollars in cap space coupled with another big increase next off season should help seal up some of those holes. Youth development should also help with talent. Then having our picks going past this season means shots at adding youth too. Again, none of that is to say that you don't trade Melo for the right package. But trading Melo just for Mozgov and a couple of 50/50 (which I think is overly optimistic oddsmaking even) shots at cheap starters isn't the right deal to move him in. You can afford to be greedy with Melo on a five year plan unless you're more worried about his happiness than your franchise's long term success...but last time we did a favor for an overpaid superstar, the Ewing trade ruined our cap situation for half a decade.
 
Youhadasparkwhenustarted

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NY's #1 Draft Pick said:
What are you talm bout? :martin:


Oh yea that grace period is over. We haven't seen any trades go down yet with a certain individual . Have you @KnickstapeCity :patrice:
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:philjacksonlol:


Nope. I guess it's time.... :manny:



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storyteller said:
Put Melo on the C's and Crowder on the Knicks right now...The Knicks become a lot worse. The C's end up in the conversation to compete for the Eastern Conference instead of the conversation for how they can find a player of Melo's caliber.
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It doesn't matter about being worse right now... I'd rather have crowder and an extra 20 million in cap space

If you add somebody with that space you're better than just having melo
 
Trip

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Youhadasparkwhenustarted said:
Phil out here tryin to hustle people:dead::salute:

I don't want to lose Quinn just to dump him, but it seems like he won't ever get playing time here, so I guess it won't be a big loss. Probably won't be enough to dump Calderon anyway:heh:
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Calderon and Teague's contracts are basically identical...dont see much of a point unless Phil sees Teague as a longterm solution at PG.
 
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Trip said:
Calderon and Teague's contracts are basically identical...dont see much of a point unless Phil sees Teague as a longterm solution at PG.
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Breh if they pull off that trade and don't got to lose a pick it's a robbery. Legit Phil went to Atlanta with a ski mask status.
 
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