Put Some Hornacek On Our Game: 2016 New York Knicks Offseason Thread

storyteller

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Nah breh, sorry but you're definitely wrong here. The best teams in the league were built primarily through the draft, you build your foundation via the draft and bolster your roster with free agency. Just look at the playoff teams right now and the majority of their core players were either drafted by them, traded on draft night, or had their rights traded -

Utah - Gobert, Hayward, Hood, Burks (Favors traded to them his rookie year) Yeah they're legit draft built, they also took years to be anything worth talking about and are still a fringe playoff team only.

Memphis - Conely & Gasol (Marc's rights were traded to the Grizz) Marc was traded for in the Pau deal. Lee, Barnes, Zbo, Green, Allen, Chalmers Wright...all acquired via trades and signing. That's essentially the entire core of the team.

Portland - McCollum, Leonard, & Lillard Absolutely built their core through the draft, even last year's team which is mostly gone; but the fact that they had to dump or lost home grown players before they could contend speaks to my point. You can build through the draft for years and still wind up losing those pieces because it took too long.

Dallas - Dirk Every other key player on that team is acquired through FA or trades. If this is all it takes to say a team was built primarily through the draft, then the Knicks are pretty much there with KP.

LAC - Blake & Jordan Another example of a team with two good drafted and developed players surrounded entirely by players acquired through trades or signings. Their best player and leader being the most obvious one in CP3.

OKC - Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka They're a great example of building through the draft done right with the only exception being their owner's unwillingness to pay Harden.

SAS - Duncan, Parker, Kawhi, Manu This is the team that everyone aspires to be for sure, and they are definitely the number one example for building through the draft successfully. No qualms here.

GS - Curry, Thompson, Barnes, Green Another nice example.


CLE - Kyrie, Thompson & Bron ( :troll: ) On the real though; four out of five starters on that team were acquired from other teams (including Lebron) even though they could have been in pretty damned good shape just hanging on to Wiggins and letting Bron take him under his wings.

TO - Val & Demar Another team that is almost entirely made up of FA's and traded for pieces. It's those two and a core of acquired players including the most important piece in Kyle Lowry.

BOS - Sullinger, Bradley IT and Crowder are most important to that team though I will say that they have a good number of rotation pieces acquired through the draft. They're a great example of a balanced build.

ATL - Horford, Teague, Black Hitler They fit the bill as of today, but likely won't by the deadline and have been shopping all three guys you named. Apparently the player they've been most reticent to deal was Kyle Korver and he's a former Bull.

MIA- Wade Outside of Wade and Winslow, the entire core of that team was acquired by means other than the draft.

INDY - George, Turner Same as the Heat.
CHI - Butler, Rose, Noah, Gibson, Mirotic Yeah, they're a good one and the player development aspect for them is great.
CHA - Kemba, MKG, Zeller, Frank They're another core built through drafting with THEIR OWN picks and not by trading for an abundance of other people's picks. The rumored offer for their 10th pick was something like what's being thrown around in this Melo deal and they turned it down for Frank friggin' Kaminsky (solid player but you get my point.

Look, I'm not over here advocating a team built without any draft picks whatsoever. I'm saying we've got OUR OWN draft picks and we've already drafted our star. KP is the guy we're supposed to develop into our Wade or Dirk. Both those guys were built around via trades and use of cap space which is exactly what I'm advocating here. The most important factor that relates those teams is patience, they didn't make rush or knee jerk moves and took years to form a fully cohesive core. I'm suggesting that the Knicks are still in the process of building their core. Trading for picks still requires good picks and luck in the lottery (or with other teams not doing well), so we're looking at uncertainty regardless of how the Knicks build. But they have KP and they have their draft picks going forward, it's not as if they don't have those.

There are some exceptions but the absolute best teams in the league were built via the draft, of course there are misses, but to say people are overvaluing picks isn't right. Outside of superstars they are the most valuable assets in the league because of the rookie contracts, the Celtics are going to have around $50 million in caproom because all those young dudes on their team are on rookie deals, in addition to having the Nets picks.

No not just "of course there are misses" the majority of picks are whiffs or take years to become solid players, usually into their RFA status at minimum. As valuable as picks are, the C's cache of picks wasn't enough to trade up. This is where the issue lies, people act like every first round draft pick is the same value. The BK pick is a top asset, the lottery protected Grizz pick is not more valuable than quality starters getting paid fair value...those kinds of players are more expensive, but they impact the game in a much larger way the vast majority of rookies and sophomores.

Your point about wanting Nerlens doesn't make sense, before he was a "Sure thing" the Sixers traded an all-star for him on draft night even though he had a torn ACL. You don't need to have the top pick to build a foundation, especially since Knicks already have their key piece which would be Kristaps, a lot of the guys I named weren't even top picks, hell the Warriors were built with picks 7 (Barnes & Curry), 11 (Thompson), 35 (Green). Also, you say you don't want to get caught in the same cycle as the Sixers, yet the last time they were in the playoffs was 4 years ago, the last time the Knicks made the playoffs was 3 years ago, you're already stuck in the same cycle as them but without the prospect of a draft pick :yeshrug:

We're without a draft pick...for one offseason. That's missing the forest for the trees. Barnes, Thomspon and Curry weren't drafted in one year or even two consecutive years and it was something like 5 years into Curry's career before the squad became truly dominant. Yet the Knicks a half season after their first offseason in a rebuilding mode, you're pushing them to dump their established star for the uncertainty of picks. Uncertainty is key here, take the GS example. If any of 34 GM's sees Green's potential for what it is, he doesn't fall to GS. The Knicks were actively attempting to trade ahead of GS to get Curry, that blows up the whole build for that team in one moment. There's no guaranteed method of building a team and the draft has a lot of variables involved just like every other attempt to build.


The Knicks are caught in no mans land right now, this is the worst position to be in, not having a draft pick in a year where you're not going to make the playoffs, all while having an aging star player.

No man's land = Brooklyn's situation. They have no draft picks, no true star and no cap space. THAT'S no man's land. To say that a team with cap space in the offseason, all of it's draft picks after this offseason and a developing future star is stuck with no place to go seems extremely short sighted imo. I've said a few times, I'd deal Melo for the right return, but I'm also not in a rush to move him for the first package that comes my way but Mozgov, BK's pick and future picks that project to be late firsts (C's are good) isn't a must have. It doesn't change the trajectory of THIS season and even BK's pick has better odds of NOT becoming a star than becoming one (14% chance to land a star in the top 20 from 08-13). It's fishing for a moral victory ("at least we have a lotto pick to look forward to") when the team's future could well be better positioned by keeping Melo as a sell point in this offseason. No that's not definitely better, but the uncertainty of FA and those picks isn't far off. If they keep Melo, they have a number one option in Melo and a number two option in KP; plus they have a quality starting C. That's a pretty nice core to build around and could be successful much more quickly than a core of KP and (insert any player that isn't a top two pick here). Plus, if things are still looking sluggish, you can deal Melo in the offseason after FA's have made decisions.

Again, this isn't some type of insult to building through the draft. The Knicks have their picks from 2017 on...KP's only 20...and having Melo to take pressure off of him and mentor him could be more beneficial long term for KP because the Knicks could draft a bust or wind up with their targets taken before they get a chance (like how we wound up with Jordan Hill instead of Curry and Gallinari instead of Westbrook).
 

storyteller

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NYK- Porzingis, Grant :blessed:

That's the important thing...Most of the teams on that list only held on to a couple of key draft picks and then built around those picks using known commodities. We have KP, we have Grant, Hernangomez is getting some hype now too and outside of this single offseason, we DO HAVE PICKS. People are limiting the outlook to one offseason.
 

storyteller

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This shyt is hilarious, you guys are an embarrassment to knowledgeable NBA fans

Breh, your reading comprehension is the embarrassment here. We were speaking hypothetically and I flat out said the C's don't do the deal I'd be demanding. I'm a big fan of Crowder, but get the hometown goggles off, Melo ain't even been healthy this year and is flat out more valuable.
 

Kang Deezy

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The stoop with dat dope fanny padding
Breh, your reading comprehension is the embarrassment here. We were speaking hypothetically and I flat out said the C's don't do the deal I'd be demanding. I'm a big fan of Crowder, but get the hometown goggles off, Melo ain't even been healthy this year and is flat out more valuable.

Melo will never be "healthy" again. And Melo is making almost as much in one year than crowder is making in 5!!! (Look it up). Who has more value?
 

storyteller

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Melo will never be "healthy" again. And Melo is making almost as much in one year than crowder is making in 5!!! (Look it up). Who has more value?

Put Melo on the C's and Crowder on the Knicks right now...The Knicks become a lot worse. The C's end up in the conversation to compete for the Eastern Conference instead of the conversation for how they can find a player of Melo's caliber.
 

Malta

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Now who else wanna fukk with Hollywood Court?
Look, I'm not over here advocating a team built without any draft picks whatsoever. I'm saying we've got OUR OWN draft picks and we've already drafted our star. KP is the guy we're supposed to develop into our Wade or Dirk. Both those guys were built around via trades and use of cap space which is exactly what I'm advocating here. The most important factor that relates those teams is patience, they didn't make rush or knee jerk moves and took years to form a fully cohesive core. I'm suggesting that the Knicks are still in the process of building their core. Trading for picks still requires good picks and luck in the lottery (or with other teams not doing well), so we're looking at uncertainty regardless of how the Knicks build. But they have KP and they have their draft picks going forward, it's not as if they don't have those.


The vast majority of core players on a team are players drafted by them, I even said the Grizz acquired Marc's rights. The way you went through the post makes it really difficult to respond to, 3 of the starters on the Cavs were drafted by them, yes that includes LeBron, Dirk is an all-time level franchise player, M. Gasol is by far the most important player on the Grizz, and they got him by finally realizing they will not win anything with Pau and trading him, sound familiar? CP3 doesn't go to the Clippers if they don't have a foundation piece in Blake who was also a number 1 pick, they also traded the pick that eventually became Kyrie to the Cavs as well.

Building around players via trades & FA as opposed to drafting your own guys is not how perennial contenders are built. I'd rather have the certainty of a draft pick as opposed to rolling the dice in free agency, relying on that is an even bigger gamble than the draft. Also, the Knicks have two assets neither of which they want to move it seems, so how do they get better via trades?

No not just "of course there are misses" the majority of picks are whiffs or take years to become solid players, usually into their RFA status at minimum. As valuable as picks are, the C's cache of picks wasn't enough to trade up. This is where the issue lies, people act like every first round draft pick is the same value. The BK pick is a top asset, the lottery protected Grizz pick is not more valuable than quality starters getting paid fair value...those kinds of players are more expensive, but they impact the game in a much larger way the vast majority of rookies and sophomores.​

If the Celtics were offering up this years draft pick you take it, period. It would make this lost season more acceptable, the 5th pick in the draft got a 32 year old Ray Allen who was stuck on a team that was going nowhere and would have had him playing with a 19 year old rookie. That's a situation where they recognized what was happening, the Knicks are in a similar spot but value star power too much.



We're without a draft pick...for one offseason. That's missing the forest for the trees. Barnes, Thomspon and Curry weren't drafted in one year or even two consecutive years and it was something like 5 years into Curry's career before the squad became truly dominant. Yet the Knicks a half season after their first offseason in a rebuilding mode, you're pushing them to dump their established star for the uncertainty of picks. Uncertainty is key here, take the GS example. If any of 34 GM's sees Green's potential for what it is, he doesn't fall to GS. The Knicks were actively attempting to trade ahead of GS to get Curry, that blows up the whole build for that team in one moment. There's no guaranteed method of building a team and the draft has a lot of variables involved just like every other attempt to build.​

The Warriors also got rid of a beloved player because they realized they wouldn't win with him, they traded Monta Ellis and the owner was boo'ed to hell when he tried to speak for the first time after the trade, worked out in the end. The team was competitive by his 4th season after they drafted all these guys, the Knicks are going completely in the opposite direction, they have missed the playoffs 3 years now with a star player.

Going without a draft pick when you have a guy turning 32, and not a ton of high level talent around him is not a recipe for a good future. You're talking about a rebuilding process with a player that is already showing signs of slippage.


No man's land = Brooklyn's situation. They have no draft picks, no true star and no cap space. THAT'S no man's land. To say that a team with cap space in the offseason, all of it's draft picks after this offseason and a developing future star is stuck with no place to go seems extremely short sighted imo. I've said a few times, I'd deal Melo for the right return, but I'm also not in a rush to move him for the first package that comes my way but Mozgov, BK's pick and future picks that project to be late firsts (C's are good) isn't a must have. It doesn't change the trajectory of THIS season and even BK's pick has better odds of NOT becoming a star than becoming one (14% chance to land a star in the top 20 from 08-13). It's fishing for a moral victory ("at least we have a lotto pick to look forward to") when the team's future could well be better positioned by keeping Melo as a sell point in this offseason. No that's not definitely better, but the uncertainty of FA and those picks isn't far off. If they keep Melo, they have a number one option in Melo and a number two option in KP; plus they have a quality starting C. That's a pretty nice core to build around and could be successful much more quickly than a core of KP and (insert any player that isn't a top two pick here). Plus, if things are still looking sluggish, you can deal Melo in the offseason after FA's have made decisions.

Again, this isn't some type of insult to building through the draft. The Knicks have their picks from 2017 on...KP's only 20...and having Melo to take pressure off of him and mentor him could be more beneficial long term for KP because the Knicks could draft a bust or wind up with their targets taken before they get a chance (like how we wound up with Jordan Hill instead of Curry and Gallinari instead of Westbrook).​
Nah, the Knicks are in no man's land right now, Brooklyn is a desolate wasteland barren of hope, they are the end result of trading picks for players. I'd agree with your rationale if Melo was 25-28 years old, the problem is he's 31 turning 32, quick rebuilds generally don't happen and he's not going to get better next year or the year after. Damn near every team will have capspace and the player that moves the needle the most just so happens to play the same position as Carmelo, you overrate the value of caproom IMO. It's not short sighted, Melo and Kristaps ages do not align, you're in a spot where you want to be competitive but your second best player is years away from reaching his potential and Melo is 1-3 years from a dropoff. Either you rebuild the right way or you try and be competitive and squeak into the playoffs as the 6-8th seed, this team will not be a contender after this offseason so what exactly are you building? The whole thought process is predicated around the idea that Carmelo is a top 10 player for the next 3-4 years, when he's not top 10 this year.

You say they have their 2017 pick, ok? Are you expecting them to miss the playoffs again next year? I respect your opinion breh, but a lot of it is too much optimism without looking over NBA history or what the other teams in the East are currently doing.
 
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storyteller

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The vast majority of core players on a team are players drafted by them, I even said the Grizz acquired Marc's rights. The way you went through the post makes it really difficult to respond to, 3 of the starters on the Cavs were drafted by them, yes that includes LeBron, Dirk is an all-time level franchise player, M. Gasol is by far the most important player on the Grizz, and they got him by finally realizing they will not win anything with Pau and trading him, sound familiar? CP3 doesn't go to the Clippers if they don't have a foundation piece in Blake who was also a number 1 pick, they also traded the pick that eventually became Kyrie to the Cavs as well.

We're not far apart here. I just don't think one or two players on a roster being brought on through the draft means that the team was built through the draft.

Building around players via trades & FA as opposed to drafting your own guys is not how perennial contenders are built. I'd rather have the certainty of a draft pick as opposed to rolling the dice in free agency, relying on that is an even bigger gamble than the draft. Also, the Knicks have two assets neither of which they want to move it seems, so how do they get better via trades?

The Knicks can draft their own guys using their own draft picks. Perennial contenders tend to take years to form and they don't always start with fire sales to stockpile draft picks. Sometimes it's a star getting injured and landing a top pick thanks to it like the Spurs (not that our situation is comparable but we probably pick a bit later if Melo doesn't get hurt). There's a luck aspect to every single scenario in roster construction, but allstar caliber players are VERY hard to get even with a stock of draft picks (because if they're mid round picks, the likelihood of them becoming a star drops exponentially). The fact that the C's offer is likely nothing but mid to late rounders is why that deal isn't enticing to me. They at least have to throw in that BK pick, but I fully admit that they're better off keeping the pick. As far as how do the Knicks get better via trades, it's moving Melo that improves the team...just not in a deal for mid-round picks at the trade deadline. When this offseason hits and teams get extra cap space, there are going to be more teams with room to take him on. There are more teams positioning themselves to add a star than there are star FA's. That's the time where the Knicks can look to move him and they don't lose any of the benefits from this proposed Boston deal by waiting...so why rush?


The Warriors also got rid of a beloved player because they realized they wouldn't win with him, they traded Monta Ellis and the owner was boo'ed to hell when he tried to speak for the first time after the trade, worked out in the end. The team was competitive by his 4th season after they drafted all these guys, the Knicks are going completely in the opposite direction, they have missed the playoffs 3 years now with a star player.

Going without a draft pick when you have a guy turning 32, and not a ton of high level talent around him is not a recipe for a good future. You're talking about a rebuilding process with a player that is already showing signs of slippage.

Here's the thing about the 3 years missing the playoffs. Two of those seasons were under Grunwald and the third season was Phil cleaning up the mess that Grunwald left behind (salary dumps essentially). So this current rebuild hasn't been going on for 3 years. It just started in January of last year with the JR/Shump trade that brought back Lance and cap space. They're not going in the opposite direction either, they did the roster reset and are on pace to double their win total from last season. They still probably miss the playoffs this year, but there's clear progress here.




Nah, the Knicks are in no man's land right now, Brooklyn is a desolate wasteland barren of hope, they are the end result of trading picks for players. I'd agree with your rationale if Melo was 25-28 years old, the problem is he's 31 turning 32, quick rebuilds generally don't happen and he's not going to get better next year or the year after. Damn near every team will have capspace and the player that moves the needle the most just so happens to play the same position as Carmelo, you overrate the value of caproom IMO. It's not short sighted, Melo and Kristaps ages do not align, you're in a spot where you want to be competitive but your second best player is years away from reaching his potential and Melo is 1-3 years from a dropoff. Either you rebuild the right way or you try and be competitive and squeak into the playoffs as the 6-8th seed, this team will not be a contender after this offseason so what exactly are you building? The whole thought process is predicated around the idea that Carmelo is a top 10 player for the next 3-4 years, when he's not top 10 this year.

So I think this is the disconnect...I'm not advocating a quick rebuild. You seem to be drawing a line in the Knicks contending with Melo as the best player or with Melo shipped out. I'm saying that the Knicks whether they deal Melo or not will not be contenders next year and will probably need a couple of years to truly be set up...but that's why there's no need to rush to move Melo. They can hold tight for a better deal and let Melo continue to mentor KP and keep the pressure off of him.

You say they have their 2017 pick, ok? Are you expecting them to miss the playoffs again next year? I respect your opinion breh, but a lot of it is too much optimism without looking over NBA history or what the other teams in the East are currently doing.

They can probably be a playoff team next year but it depends on what they do with cap space. If they deal Melo, there's no chance for the playoffs so we'd be guaranteeing 5 straight years of no post season in exchange for picks in the late teens (and look NBA history tells us that high quality players in the teens and later are outliers). This isn't optimism speaking, it's cynicism about draft picks being the answer if they aren't guaranteed to be in the top 10. I've seen Weis picked instead of Artest; Jordan Hill picked because we just missed on Steph Curry; Gallinari's development stunted for the life of his rookie deal because of back issues...I know really well that draft picks aren't guarantees of anything. That's why I say yall overvalue draft picks, I think they're a source for false optimism. We remember the guys who got picked and were stars, but everyone seems to forget the guys like our own D-Will who was picked number 2 and was such a bust people thought the Knicks overpaid him with a 5 million dollar deal.

As an aside, I respect your opinion too, I think it's grounded in what has been pretty conventional wisdom on draft picks. I just disagree about their value beyond top 10's (and really anything after the top 5 is where the drop off in odds begins).
 

storyteller

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Just wanted to add some statistical backing to my theory that mid-late first rounders are being over valued; I swore Nate Silver's site did some serious value analysis but couldn't find it. Here's a more simplistic version but theoretically, calling up a D-Leaguer can give you more production than having a late round rookie. The debate is obviously that the late first will be more productive long term but guys like galloway, Tyler Johnson, Hassan Whiteside and Bryce Dejean-Jones are making a case that wise use of the D-League can get you returns from players with plenty of upside in their own right. Adding fair info here, the sample size for D-League players is a lot smaller than late round rooks so until we have a larger sample this is speculative stuff at it's highest...

D-League Players vs. Late First Round Picks: A Surprising Result | The Wages of Wins Journal

In sum — and this surprising result bears repeating — avoiding drafting a player outside of the lottery in the first round could potentially save an organization about one million dollars for each employee. And again, this savings may come with an even higher level of on-court production.
 
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