Aintnobodystupid
All Star
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Interested in seeing how off polling is going to be.
I have no doubt that closet Trump supporters exist by the millions so this isn’t going to be as easy as some think.
The only demo Trump has on lock is non college educated cacs. Literally all other demos are [for the most part] voting against him.He is going to get smashed. He is down big by even the most conservative pollsters. USC/Dornsife had him winning the last election and now have him down 11 points.
States that Trump took in 2016 (Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan) are all trending Democrat. For Georgia to be discussed as possibly flipping Democrat as well shows the direction sentiments of the country are headed. Absentee ballots have been cast at record numbers. We know that Trump has been actively trying attack mail-in ballots as well.
I agree in that there are A LOT of closet Trump supporters, but Americans by and large either fall left or right of the middle. About a 1/3rd of Independent voters polled have also changed their vote to a different party from the last election.
I see this looking similar to the 2012 election with Dems carrying key swing states. People will understand the power of the black vote in this election.
Trump can take FL, GA, OH, NC, and even PA (in a worst case scenario) and all the Dems would have to do is flip AZ, MI and WI to win. The election is going to be won in MI, WI, and PA. Any candidate that gets 2/3 of these will win the election. If votes come out early and you see a Democratic win in GA, then the Republicans lose big.
A conservative estimate will look like 305 Biden : 232 Trump.
24 hours away from some must-see tv
Dude I live in PA. Just yesterday I saw a bunch of Republicans for Biden signs. These were hand made signs. The midterms fukking Delaware County turned blue for the first time in 50 years. A lot of people in the suburbs voted Trump because they hated Hilary and they regretted voting Trump or not voted at all.. It's not like that this timeThey have siad if trump wins PA then Biden chances go to 33% chance he wins.
All pollsters be done...If Biden loses, 538 and Nate Silver need to go out of business.