Part 2:
“There’s not a night I don’t go to sleep thinking about what turnout will look like in 2024,” Smith said.
“When you think about election cycle to election cycle, [Black voters] have been telling us for a long time what matters,” Smith added. “They want to put food on the table, a roof over their head, send kids to good schools, live in neighborhoods that are safe. I don’t think the issues are new, it’s the way we talk about them and the way we’re centering the voice of the people who live in these communities.”
Some Republicans say they see an opportunity to siphon off some of those disenchanted Black voters in next year’s presidential election with messaging on some key issues. Jay Williams, a longtime GOP strategist in Georgia and founder of the Stoneridge Group, a Republican firm, said school choice and transgender and LGBTQ+ issues, especially as they relate to children and schools, could harm Democrats among their reliable base.
“My guess is Democrats for the foreseeable future will continue to do well [with Black voters], but I think there’s some cultural issues that don’t typically resonate with the Black community as a whole and frankly a lot of minority communities,” Williams said. “Republicans will be able to peel some folks off based on that, depending on the area. It could be a real wedge issue for us.”
Williams acknowledged any growth in support among Black voters could be harder for the GOP if Trump is the nominee — and there will be many other groups, including suburban White women, that the party will have to worry about in that case. He added that he expects Republicans to have a better return on investment with other minority voting blocs, such as Latinos and Asian Americans, “because I don’t think they’re as in lockstep with the Democrats as the Black voter bloc is.”
Meanwhile, Democrats say they are significantly more worried that Black voters will sit it out rather than defect to the Republicans.
Sharif Street, a Pennsylvania state senator and the chairman of the state Democratic Party, said it’s incumbent on the party to give people not just something to vote against, like Trump, but something to vote for.
“Ultimately, the Democratic Party is in the right place substantively on all of those issues,” he said. “But we’ve got to understand that people don’t just know that. We have to message to people so that they know where we are, and being better than the Republicans is not always enough to get people motivated to vote.”
In Detroit, liberal organizers targeting Black turnout have made education about how politics work a centerpiece of their pitch, along with concrete examples of policies that have benefited people from state and federal legislation.
“There is a slow leaking of Black men from the base because the issues that they care about aren’t being addressed,” said Branden Snyder, executive director of Detroit Action, whose organizers tell people the exercise is more like writing a Yelp review to spur change. “We have politics that were created by both Democrats and Republicans that don’t get to the heart of what our community cares about.”
But Malcolm Kenyatta, a Black Pennsylvania state representative who is an official surrogate for the Biden reelection campaign, said that Black voters will come out for Biden next year if Democrats can articulate Biden’s successes.
“This is like being married. You have to spend just as much time, maybe even more time, on the people who show up for you every time as you do for the people who don’t,” Kenyatta said. “What Black folks care about is what everybody cares about, to be able to take care of their community, to be able to live in a community that is safe … If the president is able to do what he is doing now, which is tout his record, I think we are going to be fine.”
Many advocates say that work needs to start early and be consistent. Cliff Albright, co-founder and executive director of Black Votes Matter, said the resources needed to successfully mobilize Black voters and fight voter suppression in key states were too little and came too late in 2022. He pointed to places like North Carolina and Wisconsin, which had Black Democratic Senate candidates, but said the party didn’t prioritize investments there.
“Everybody knows that there’s no path, whether it’s President Biden or any other Democrat, federal or state, there’s no path to win that does not involve massive turnout from Black voters,” Albright said. “But they can’t just think that it’s just going to happen on its own. They’ve got to invest in making that happen.”
It’s a message also stressed by Mandela Barnes, the first Black lieutenant governor in Wisconsin, who ran for the Senate in 2022 and lost by only 26,000 votes, much of which could be attributed to depressed turnout in the heavily Black city of Milwaukee. Barnes is president of Power to the Polls Wisconsin, a new organization dedicated to working year-round to boost engagement and turnout among Black voters in the state. He’s also trying to support diverse candidates who might be overlooked by the national Democratic establishment.
“In a swing state like Wisconsin, we could very well be the tipping point … If we show up, we win,” Barnes said. “This country, and that power, is in the hands of Black voters, and we have to take that power seriously.”
Scott Clement contributed to this report.
“There’s not a night I don’t go to sleep thinking about what turnout will look like in 2024,” Smith said.
“When you think about election cycle to election cycle, [Black voters] have been telling us for a long time what matters,” Smith added. “They want to put food on the table, a roof over their head, send kids to good schools, live in neighborhoods that are safe. I don’t think the issues are new, it’s the way we talk about them and the way we’re centering the voice of the people who live in these communities.”
Some Republicans say they see an opportunity to siphon off some of those disenchanted Black voters in next year’s presidential election with messaging on some key issues. Jay Williams, a longtime GOP strategist in Georgia and founder of the Stoneridge Group, a Republican firm, said school choice and transgender and LGBTQ+ issues, especially as they relate to children and schools, could harm Democrats among their reliable base.

“My guess is Democrats for the foreseeable future will continue to do well [with Black voters], but I think there’s some cultural issues that don’t typically resonate with the Black community as a whole and frankly a lot of minority communities,” Williams said. “Republicans will be able to peel some folks off based on that, depending on the area. It could be a real wedge issue for us.”

Williams acknowledged any growth in support among Black voters could be harder for the GOP if Trump is the nominee — and there will be many other groups, including suburban White women, that the party will have to worry about in that case. He added that he expects Republicans to have a better return on investment with other minority voting blocs, such as Latinos and Asian Americans, “because I don’t think they’re as in lockstep with the Democrats as the Black voter bloc is.”
Meanwhile, Democrats say they are significantly more worried that Black voters will sit it out rather than defect to the Republicans.
Sharif Street, a Pennsylvania state senator and the chairman of the state Democratic Party, said it’s incumbent on the party to give people not just something to vote against, like Trump, but something to vote for.
“Ultimately, the Democratic Party is in the right place substantively on all of those issues,” he said. “But we’ve got to understand that people don’t just know that. We have to message to people so that they know where we are, and being better than the Republicans is not always enough to get people motivated to vote.”
In Detroit, liberal organizers targeting Black turnout have made education about how politics work a centerpiece of their pitch, along with concrete examples of policies that have benefited people from state and federal legislation.
“There is a slow leaking of Black men from the base because the issues that they care about aren’t being addressed,” said Branden Snyder, executive director of Detroit Action, whose organizers tell people the exercise is more like writing a Yelp review to spur change. “We have politics that were created by both Democrats and Republicans that don’t get to the heart of what our community cares about.”
But Malcolm Kenyatta, a Black Pennsylvania state representative who is an official surrogate for the Biden reelection campaign, said that Black voters will come out for Biden next year if Democrats can articulate Biden’s successes.
“This is like being married. You have to spend just as much time, maybe even more time, on the people who show up for you every time as you do for the people who don’t,” Kenyatta said. “What Black folks care about is what everybody cares about, to be able to take care of their community, to be able to live in a community that is safe … If the president is able to do what he is doing now, which is tout his record, I think we are going to be fine.”
Many advocates say that work needs to start early and be consistent. Cliff Albright, co-founder and executive director of Black Votes Matter, said the resources needed to successfully mobilize Black voters and fight voter suppression in key states were too little and came too late in 2022. He pointed to places like North Carolina and Wisconsin, which had Black Democratic Senate candidates, but said the party didn’t prioritize investments there.
“Everybody knows that there’s no path, whether it’s President Biden or any other Democrat, federal or state, there’s no path to win that does not involve massive turnout from Black voters,” Albright said. “But they can’t just think that it’s just going to happen on its own. They’ve got to invest in making that happen.”
It’s a message also stressed by Mandela Barnes, the first Black lieutenant governor in Wisconsin, who ran for the Senate in 2022 and lost by only 26,000 votes, much of which could be attributed to depressed turnout in the heavily Black city of Milwaukee. Barnes is president of Power to the Polls Wisconsin, a new organization dedicated to working year-round to boost engagement and turnout among Black voters in the state. He’s also trying to support diverse candidates who might be overlooked by the national Democratic establishment.
“In a swing state like Wisconsin, we could very well be the tipping point … If we show up, we win,” Barnes said. “This country, and that power, is in the hands of Black voters, and we have to take that power seriously.”
Scott Clement contributed to this report.
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