POTUS or Prisoner; The '24 Trump Campaign Fvckery thread

[Silky Johnson]

His numbers are more accurate for 2028

How younger voters will impact elections: Younger voters are poised to upend American politics

Younger voters should be a source of electoral strength for Democrats for some years to come.

www.brookings.edu

Yea, I mixed up the '24 & '28 numbers. I just went back and looked at the again. By 2024, an estimated 135-140 million US citizens will be between the ages of 18 - 44. Based on the voting trends since 2012, collectively this group has a voter turnout of 55-60%, which would be 77 - 81 million estimated voters

There were about 160 million voters at the polls for the last election. On the low end, Millennials + Under would make up 48% of total projected voters in 2024 and almost 53% on the higher end. I'm using the data based on the 2020 census.

National Population by Characteristics: 2020-2022

If you've been following along, you know the Trump admin census was a shytshow and notoriously undercounted non-whites and young people so I'm operating on the assumption the numbers are higher than what's reported here.

The one thing I would add is that those figures are the percentages of the TOTAL ELECTORATE, in other words ELIGIBLE voters. Younger people still vote at percentages far below older, but the good news for Dems is that the % who actually vote has been steadily increasing, while the % of the electorate made up of older voters is decreasing.

 

[GnauzBookOfRhymes]

i agree, trump isn't going to pick someone like pence again... .trump's biggest problem with pence wasn't even that he's establishment or close to people he doesn't like, it's that he thought pence wasn't loyal... pence, no matter how odious his policies are, is a straight shooter.... trump wants a ride or die.... i second the sentiment that it will be kari lake... trump cares about nothing other than loyalty and kari will show that.... plus she will nullify some of the sexist allegations against trump.... the only potential downside to picking kari is that she might take headlines from trump, something else he can't abide by....

Pence a straight shooter?

Kari Lake?

When has trump ever cared about nullifying allegations of sexual anything? He barely denies sexual assault lol.

Cmon breh.

I think this is one of the difficulties trump will face. People can't even begin to think about normal shyt like who might be his VP.

 

[GnauzBookOfRhymes]

Yea, I mixed up the '24 & '28 numbers. I just went back and looked at the again. By 2024, an estimated 135-140 million US citizens will be between the ages of 18 - 44. Based on the voting trends since 2012, collectively this group has a voter turnout of 55-60%, which would be 77 - 81 million estimated voters

There were about 160 million voters at the polls for the last election. On the low end, Millennials + Under would make up 48% of total projected voters in 2024 and almost 53% on the higher end. I'm using the data based on the 2020 census.

Just the fact that more people are voting will definitely favor Dems in the near future. It’s crazy to see how it’s taken 60 years for turnout to return to 50% smh. Could’ve avoided so much unnecessary pain especially the last 20 years.

That being said it’s going to be a wild next 20 years to see how (or if) the parties evolve. I imagine at some point the gop is going to try and wrestle control of the party away from the trumpanzee style primary voters. The Dems also have some soul searching to do, especially on economic issues where I sense many voters feel the party has been reluctant to fully embrace them.

 

[Silky Johnson]

Just the fact that more people are voting will definitely favor Dems in the near future. It’s crazy to see how it’s taken 60 years for turnout to return to 50% smh. Could’ve avoided so much unnecessary pain especially the last 20 years.

That being said it’s going to be a wild next 20 years to see how (or if) the parties evolve. I imagine at some point the gop is going to try and wrestle control of the party away from the trumpanzee style primary voters. The Dems also have some soul searching to do, especially on economic issues where I sense many voters feel the party has been reluctant to fully embrace them.

I think the GOP will go the way of the Whigs. The LARPS will run out of money eventually but not before they push the pols that actually want to govern out of the party completely. The current Dem party will most likely split with the Bush Repubs joining the moderates while the progressives gain momentum for their own thing (WFP?)

 

[GnauzBookOfRhymes]

I think the GOP will go the way of the Whigs. The LARPS will run out of money eventually but not before they push the pols that actually want to govern out of the party completely. The current Dem party will most likely split with the Bush Repubs joining the moderates while the progressives gain momentum for their own thing (WFP?)

I think that is too clean. We have too many fault lines, especially when it comes to “cultural” issues. White nationalism/irredentism isn’t just going away, it will actually get worse before it gets any better. And we still don’t know how things like AI taking over our economy etc is going to change political considerations. But I do agree with you that over the long term the country will slowly nudge itself “left” and resemble the landscape we see in many European countries.

 

[daemonova]

 

[Silky Johnson]

I think that is too clean. We have too many fault lines, especially when it comes to “cultural” issues. White nationalism/irredentism isn’t just going away, it will actually get worse before it gets any better. And we still don’t know how things like AI taking over our economy etc is going to change political considerations. But I do agree with you that over the long term the country will slowly nudge itself “left” and resemble the landscape we see in many European countries.

Boomers will be in the dirt within the next 20 years and the country will be a majority non-white state. I can't see where the white nationalists will draw the numbers to be relevant after MAGA is done. They're going to be pushed back to the fringes again & the nation will go back to being center-left as we were before the Regan/Clinton eras.

 

[voltronblack]

I think that is too clean. We have too many fault lines, especially when it comes to “cultural” issues. White nationalism/irredentism isn’t just going away, it will actually get worse before it gets any better. And we still don’t know how things like AI taking over our economy etc is going to change political considerations. But I do agree with you that over the long term the country will slowly nudge itself “left” and resemble the landscape we see in many European countries.

The rise of the Far Right in Europe

As we approach the end of 2022, Europe is moving markedly towards the far right as reflected in their electoral successes this year in Italy, France, Sweden and other European countries. They are now in the likely process of becoming the integral part of the mainstream political force in Euro

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

The far right's electoral victory in Italy has ushered in new fears about a far right turn in Europe as well concerns that Italy will bring turmoil to Europe. In fact, such fears and concerns are increasing becoming quite common among left and liberal politicians as well as liberal media. The success of the Sweden Democrats, a party with neo-Nazi roots and a fierce anti-immigrant law and order agenda won second place in the recent election. This success of the Sweden Democrats clearly shows that no country is immune to far right populist parties. In fact, it is estimated that far right political parties are now polling between 10 to 25 per cent of votes in Western European countries.

Far right parties have also entered into governments in Austria, Finland and Estonia and many other countries are likely to follow the trend in the near future. There are multiple economic, social, cultural and political reasons for the current surge of the radical right in Europe. However, the crisis of democracy or what is also described as democratic malaise fuels the far right's drive to exploit the situation to their advantage.

Conventional political rivalry has lost its meaning; the left, the centre and the right seem to agree on their fundamentals including economic models which serve interests of high finance and large industrial corporations. In such an arrangement main political parties divide the spoils of power among themselves within an agreed institutional framework described as the consensus democracy model. That has given rise to popular disgust against the "system".

Lauren Boebert, MTG lead GOP celebrations over fascist wins in Europe

"We need to bring that kind of conservatism to the United States," said GOP Rep. Steve Scalise.

www.salon.com

Fascism returns to Europe’s centerstage : Peoples Dispatch

Giorgia Meloni insists she isn’t a fascist herself, yet her party’s flag includes the symbol of the old pro-fascist party - the tricolour flame

peoplesdispatch.org

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

L-O-fukking-L

 

[ADevilYouKhow]

‘Trump too small’ trademark clash to be decided by Supreme Court — NBC News

The dispute is over whether lawyer Steve Elster can register "Trump too small" as a trademark for use on T-shirts.

apple.news

 

[ADevilYouKhow]

Mike Pence Formally Enters 2024 Race, Challenging Trump

Mr. Pence, who filed paperwork declaring his candidacy, was once a stalwart supporter and defender of Donald J. Trump, but split with his former boss after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.

www.nytimes.com

Low key hilarious he’s actually running

 

[GnauzBookOfRhymes]

Boomers will be in the dirt within the next 20 years and the country will be a majority non-white state. I can't see where the white nationalists will draw the numbers to be relevant after MAGA is done. They're going to be pushed back to the fringes again & the nation will go back to being center-left as we were before the Regan/Clinton eras.

Boomers might be the ones financing or providing the institutional support for white nationalists but even as they're dying a new generation is being cultivated. The Charlottesville rioters, the proud boy and TPUSA types; the Lauren Boebers (36 yrs old) etc...they are young and not going anywhere. It's also pretty well established that people start drifting "right" as they age, even the good white liberal "allies" of today.

 

[voltronblack]

Boomers might be the ones financing or providing the institutional support for white nationalists but even as they're dying a new generation is being cultivated. The Charlottesville rioters, the proud boy and TPUSA types; the Lauren Boebers (36 yrs old) etc...they are young and not going anywhere. It's also pretty well established that people start drifting "right" as they age, even the good white liberal "allies" of today.

You right about that

 

[Silky Johnson]

Boomers might be the ones financing or providing the institutional support for white nationalists but even as they're dying a new generation is being cultivated. The Charlottesville rioters, the proud boy and TPUSA types; the Lauren Boebers (36 yrs old) etc...they are young and not going anywhere. It's also pretty well established that people start drifting "right" as they age, even the good white liberal "allies" of today.

This is true except for certain cohort effects:

Research has shown that successful, popular presidents increase the likelihood that generations growing up during their presidency will vote for the party of such presidents when they become eligible to do so and in the decades that follow. This is true whether the presidents were Republicans such as Dwight Eisenhower (Silent Generation) and Ronald Reagan (younger Boomers and older Generation X) or Democrats such as Franklin D. Roosevelt (GI or Greatest Generation), Bill Clinton (Younger Generation X) and Barack Obama (Millennials). By the same token, unsuccessful or unpopular presidents such as Democrats Harry Truman (Silent), Lyndon Johnson (older cohort Boomers) and Jimmy Carter (younger cohort Boomers) along with Republicans Richard Nixon (middle cohort Boomers) and George W. Bush (younger Generation X and Millennials) have created opportunities for the party out of power during those administrations to gain the allegiance of a new generation of voters.

How younger voters will impact elections: The more a generation changes, the more it stays the same

Popular presidents are a key driver for life-long voting preferences.

www.brookings.edu

A Pew October 2022 survey showed that younger (18-44 years old) and older (45+ years old) Democrats were in close accord on “social issues” such as America’s openness to newcomers, the perception of continuing challenges facing African Americans and women, as well as on economic issues like the necessity of business regulation and assistance to the needy and attitudes toward Donald Trump. By contrast, there were statistically significant differences between younger and older Republican identifiers, especially on the “social issues” and feelings about the former president; so much so that on some issues 18–44-year-old Republicans are more closely aligned with their Democratic compatriots than their Republican elders.[1]

How younger voters will impact elections: Generational change divides GOP, unites Democrats

Democrats increasingly hold a generational advantage.

www.brookings.edu

Once you factor in the gun policies that Gen Z and younger are going through, the overall picture for them gets even bleaker.

TLDR - younger, whiter kids are joining older, non-white voters in seeing the current day GOP as the opps & probably won't bang with them under any circumstance for the next few decades.

 

[GnauzBookOfRhymes]

This is true except for certain cohort effects:

Once you factor in the gun policies that Gen Z and younger are going through, the overall picture for them gets even bleaker.

TLDR - younger, whiter kids are joining older, non-white voters in seeing the current day GOP as the opps & probably won't bang with them under any circumstance for the next few decades.

Breh that study seems somewhat sloppy. Correlation isn't causation. To me the only thing it's "proving" is the idea that growing up under a popular president credited for bringing about good times makes people vote for someone who is most likely to continue those policies. Why would we expect any different?

The reason I call it sloppy is bc they don't (or can't bc to be honest it would be difficult to quantify) discuss MOTIVATIONS. The reason many people start inching towards the right wing is bc as they get older the issues they prioritize begin to change. It's easier to be more progressive on an issue like crime when you're a teenager. That can change once you have kids and a family. Same with tax/economic policy, climate change etc etc.

As the percentage of nonwhites continues to climb, the percentage of white people whose voting patterns will be influenced by the fear (and reality) of their waning political power, will increase. And you're going to see that even from white people that are very liberal/progressive on economic issues. These are the people some call the "dirtbag left." All these podcasters, the hardcore Bernie types. They will find common cause with white nationalists on the right bc remember they will agree 100% on economic issues.

Now I'm not saying it's going to be ALL white people. But it will be a lot. And it shouldn't really surprise anyone. This happens everywhere. It's human nature.