Phil Spencer on Starfield/Indiana Jones exclusivity: “don’t want to rule out a game coming to any other platforms […] currently focused on 4 games”

[CEO of Morgan Industries]

People said the same thing about Uber. For years it burned cash and the critics said it can't work and will never be profitable. Guess what. Uber reached profitability. They said the same thing about Tesla. I remember pre-2019 Tesla blow up they used to bring Cathy Wood on CNBC and listen to her Tesla predictions just so they could clown her. Hell they said the same thing about Netflix. Company used to straight up burn money with no positive free cash flow.

Just because you think a business model can't work doesn't mean it actually can't. With enough money a business model that looks like a complete failure can be adjusted and stick around long enough to get to the other side as Uber can attest.

False equivalence. Uber doesn't have to deal with a fragmented consumer base as Microsoft does in video games. Tesla, well, let's not even go there. They were valued as a tech company, didn't deliver on self-driving cars, and have some of the worst engineering on earth. Cathie Wood and the rest of the market mass overvaluing TSLA before everyone figured out that Elon is a fraud isn't the best support for your argument, either.

Alternatively, just because you believe really hard in a business model, that doesn't mean it can work. For every Netflix, there are twenty businesses that tried to disrupt common business models and failed.

But I'd think that the most recent sub numbers for Gamepass being garbage (only at 33M even when adding Xbox Live Gold conversions means that they had miniscule growth in new subs over the past quarter) would give you at least a bit of pause. Netflix (your closest reasonable comparison) was able to win streaming marketshare because a) they were first into streaming in general and b) they were given a good half-decade head start because they were able to cheaply license a bunch of movies and shows that the licensors didn't see much value in, giving them the chance to establish themselves as the place to go for streaming options at a low price.

Microsoft has zero of the built-in advantages in game streaming that Netflix did. They do have money, however. It's up to whoever is running Microsoft to be willing to try and brute force Gamepass by burning cash for the next few years.

 

[MeachTheMonster]

False equivalence. Uber doesn't have to deal with a fragmented consumer base as Microsoft does in video games.

Alternatively, just because you believe really hard in a business model, that doesn't mean it can work. For every Netflix, there are twenty businesses that tried to disrupt common business models and failed.

But I'd think that the most recent sub numbers for Gamepass being garbage (only at 33M even when adding Xbox Live Gold conversions means that they had miniscule growth in new subs over the past quarter) would give you at least a bit of pause. Netflix was able to win streaming marketshare because a) they were first into streaming in general and b) they were given a good half-decade head start because they were able to cheaply license a bunch of movies and shows that the licensors didn't see much value in, giving them the chance to establish themselves as the place to go for streaming options at a low price.

Microsoft has zero of the built-in advantages in game streaming that Netflix did. They do have money, however. It's up to whoever is running Microsoft to be willing to try and brute force Gamepass by burning cash for the next few years.

You guys just make up your own stories.

Gamepass is not and never has lost money like netflix.

Not even sure why yall talking about netflix.The business models and economics are very different.

We’ve already seen the numbers of how much money gamepass makes per month and how much they spend on content.

 

[Gizmo_Duck]

You guys just make up your own stories.

Gamepass is not and never has lost money like netflix.

 

[CEO of Morgan Industries]

You guys just make up your own stories.

Gamepass is not and never has lost money like netflix.

Not even sure why yall talking about netflix.The business models and economics are very different.

We’ve already seen the numbers of how much money gamepass makes per month and how much they spend on content.

Talk to @winb83. He's the breh bringing up Netflix and other companies. Don't quote me.

 

[winb83]

False equivalence. Uber doesn't have to deal with a fragmented consumer base as Microsoft does in video games. Tesla, well, let's not even go there. They were valued as a tech company, didn't deliver on self-driving cars, and have some of the worst engineering on earth. Cathie Wood and the rest of the market mass overvaluing TSLA before everyone figured out that Elon is a fraud isn't the best support for your argument, either.

Alternatively, just because you believe really hard in a business model, that doesn't mean it can work. For every Netflix, there are twenty businesses that tried to disrupt common business models and failed.

But I'd think that the most recent sub numbers for Gamepass being garbage (only at 33M even when adding Xbox Live Gold conversions means that they had miniscule growth in new subs over the past quarter) would give you at least a bit of pause. Netflix (your closest reasonable comparison) was able to win streaming marketshare because a) they were first into streaming in general and b) they were given a good half-decade head start because they were able to cheaply license a bunch of movies and shows that the licensors didn't see much value in, giving them the chance to establish themselves as the place to go for streaming options at a low price.

Microsoft has zero of the built-in advantages in game streaming that Netflix did. They do have money, however. It's up to whoever is running Microsoft to be willing to try and brute force Gamepass by burning cash for the next few years.

Is that a fragmented consumer base? Who else is really trying to go all in on video game subscriptions?

Microsoft is pretty much the only real player there. Their problem is their service is trash. It doesn't have much content people value or want. It's for bargain seekers. I've openly admitted the only reason I even have it is Gold conversion. If I had to pay the monthly fee I wouldn't.

So again I'll say this application of the business model that can't even be properly evaluated because the execution on it has been lackluster. A business failing because management couldn't execute the business model isn't the same as a business failing because the model itself was bad. The subscription service business model has proven again and again that if the content is there the customers will be too.

When Microsoft shows up to The Game Awards and they consistently have 2-3 games a year nominated and Call of Duty is on the service and it's not doing numbers yall have a point. When the service is full of small indie games, failed 3rd party games, old sold through 3rd party games from years ago, maybe one major Microsoft exclusive that's a struggle 80s level game and a Forza game every year and nothing else really obviously that's not going to do numbers.

If Microsoft can't even convince people to buy their hardware in decent numbers why would the subscription service for the hardware be doing well. That's not an indictment on subscription services it's an indictment on Microsoft, leadership, and Xbox Studios.

 

[Killer Instinct]

I feel like these guys think MSFT's failures should be copied as well.

Misery adores company.

 

[Loose]

Their problem is their service is trash.

I stopped reading right here, this some ridiculous ass hyperbole. Is it best as it can be? Of course not but it has had some great games in service even 3rd parties that are day 1.

 

[Rekkapryde]

Can't wait for Deadpool and Wolverine to hit Disney+ Day 1

 

[winb83]

I stopped reading right here, this some ridiculous ass hyperbole. Is it best as it can be? Of course not but it has had some great games in service even 3rd parties that are day 1.

You can dress it up however you want. Like I said if Microsoft can’t release a lineup of games that convinces the consumer to buy their console how is the subscription service for it going to do well?

You can be a Microsoft Xbox fan and admit the promise of them delivering games day one on this service hasn’t lived up to itself. Microsoft barely releases any major AAA games that do well in the first place. Besides Starfield which is a struggle 80s level game what’s been their signature release in all this time? That also was a game they purchased mid development and pulled from other hardware.

Not counting Forza games what Gears 5 back in 2019? Halo Infinite is a free to play game so it doesn’t apply. So what is it?

 

[Loose]

You can dress it up however you want. Like I said if Microsoft can’t release a lineup of games that convinces the consumer to buy their console how is the subscription service for it going to do well?

You can be a Microsoft Xbox fan and admit the promise of them delivering games day one on this service hasn’t lived up to itself. Microsoft barely releases any major AAA games that do well in the first place. Besides Starfield which is a struggle 80s level game what’s been their signature release in all this time? That also was a game they purchased mid development and pulled from other hardware.

Not counting Forza games what Gears 5 back in 2019? Halo Infinite is a free to play game so it doesn’t apply. So what is it?

I dont disagree that Microsoft cadence themselves have not helped, but the service is no where near trash you're just hyperbolic as usual. I had at least 6-8 games I was going to buy go into the service day one last year.

last one was last week persona 3 remake, week before palworld

 

[winb83]

You guys just make up your own stories.

Gamepass is not and never has lost money like netflix.

Not even sure why yall talking about netflix.The business models and economics are very different.

We’ve already seen the numbers of how much money gamepass makes per month and how much they spend on content.

No we don’t know this. All we know is the spend on 3rd party content. Nobody outside the company knows the total spend on content including first party content and what that is vs the money it brings back in. What we do know is Xbox overall as a division is low single digits profitable.

 

[Loose]

No we don’t know this. All we know is the spend on 3rd party content. Nobody outside the company knows the total spend on content including first party content and what that is vs the money it brings back in. What we do know is Xbox overall as a division is low single digits profitable.

We dont know how much it makes, but we do know it doesn't lose money. Xbox is not a loss leading division, and has been profit driven for years.

 

[winb83]

I dont disagree that Microsoft cadence themselves have not helped, but the service is no where near trash you're just hyperbolic as usual. I had at least 6-8 games I was going to buy go into the service day one last year.

last one was last week persona 3 remake, week before palworld

Persona 3 Remake isn’t a Microsoft game though. I’m not saying that wasn’t a nice get but I am saying that’s nowhere near enough.

They need to start releasing GOTY level games that get the industry buzzing. They need Baldur's Gate 3 Alan Wake 2 level games from their internal studios at a consistent annual pace. That hasn’t happened.

 

[Loose]

Persona 3 Remake isn’t a Microsoft game though. I’m not saying that wasn’t a nice get but I am saying that’s nowhere near enough.

They need to start releasing GOTY level games that get the industry buzzing. They need Baldur's Gate 3 Alan Wake 2 level games from their internal studios at a consistent annual pace. That hasn’t happened.

I never said it was enough, you said the service is trash. What other service even in the same stratosphere? Of course they need better games at a bigger cadence? I'm sure they're aware.

 

[winb83]

I never said it was enough, you said the service is trash. What other service even in the same stratosphere? Of course they need better games at a bigger cadence? I'm sure they're aware.

Do you pay for Xbox Game Pass by the month or have you done years of Gold conversion?