Ohio and Florida: Lost causes for Dems, or are they still winnable?

[Sohh_lifted]

You're not really saying much aside from the fact that a black woman will do worse than a black man because of MAGA?

Cool

and the fact that I live here and frequent this state. and you brushing off how horrid the democratic party is down here? what ground game do they have? What base? Whose the biggest democratic voice in the state? a fukkin white woman who smokes weed and tote guns lol

 

[Kingcobrakai]

Hmmm . . . I'm thinking this is the better tact for Progressives. It keeps you off the radar of Centrists and Republicans and you aren't a lightning rod. I like the squad a lot but maybe being on the national stage all the time taking arrows and dishing them out isn't that effective.

You have to have firebrands though to stoke the base. That’s what “safe” seats are for. The Squad. Bernie. Liz. They set the highest of expectations for the progressive agenda. We all know it’s gonna take it’s sweet ass time to happen (because old ass cacs can’t bring themselves to stop being selfish), but in the mean time, build a more welcoming environment for those ideals.

The Whitehouses and Browns do work in states where cacs have free reign and decide elections. They have to be the passive ones. It’s a team effort, and I think some progressives and some moderates forgot that. Which reminds me? Where is Kristen Gillibrand at?

There is a generation of Dems don’t like to campaign and that’s why messaging is off. The entire message doesn’t have to be the same everywhere, but the basics do. What’s ailing you? We have a way to fix it? You want to lower insurance premiums. The Republicans will call it socialism. You say “We want to put more money in your pocket. Can’t the little guy win a little?” And you slip a little something else in. You want to pass a green new deal, get some pork in it for the front line soldiers. Make jobs that create jobs. People still “fighting” for their 2nd amendment rights? We will not take away your guns, but you don’t want the bad guys to have them, right? Oh okay...... How do we do that? Make people feel like their concerns are important and then go to Washington and pass your agenda. Come back and say “Are things better?”

But they would rather stick around and feel important than stick it to Republicans and be important.

 

[mastermind]

The entire message doesn’t have to be the same everywhere, but the basics do.

Yup!

 

[ORDER_66]

Florida aint never changing...Bushes status...

 

[Loose]

Ohio a lost cause, he's far different than it was in the 90s let alone 00s.

 

[NSSVO]

One of the states that popped up on some dumb, maga, and/or racist shyt on FB was Ohio.

Florida is going to fukked up for a while because of the Cubans. No need to try to convince them different, especially when big homie Obama killed that immigration loophole.

 

[Professor Emeritus]

I think y'all underestimate how many people don't vote and how much demographics change every four years. Swings can be much larger than you think. There are only 18-19 states that are unwinnable in the next decade. Everything else is up for grabs. The DNC just had to try to actually earn the win instead of doing the same fukking shyt.

 

[JBoy]

I think y'all underestimate how many people don't vote and how much demographics change every four years. Swings can be much larger than you think. There are only 18-19 states that are unwinnable in the next decade. Everything else is up for grabs. The DNC just had to try to actually earn the win instead of doing the same fukking shyt.

yeah we have had 6 presidential elections this millennium with one semi blowout in 08 and fairly close elections otherwise so not sure where this writing off these two states is coming from considering how fickle the electorate has become.

 

[NY's #1 Draft Pick]

gillum lost by half a percentage point, 60k votes. She will fare much worse than Gillum.

Well she has a bit more notoriety than gillum so she may be able to generate a bit more excitement. She’s probably the most known but we don’t even have that deep of a bench out here so that may be our best option. Besides that who do we have Nikki fried and Gwen Graham ? I would say a young Hispanic dude like my congressman Darren Soto but he has no swag and Is not really known like that .

 

[Professor Emeritus]

yeah we have had 6 presidential elections this millennium with one semi blowout in 08 and fairly close elections otherwise so not sure where this writing off these two states is coming from considering how fickle the electorate has become.

I mean, just in the last four years we've had a Republican win in Massachusetts and a Democrat win in Alabama, and they talking like swing states are lost causes.

 

[NY's #1 Draft Pick]

I mean, just in the last four years we've had a Republican win in Massachusetts and a Democrat win in Alabama, and they talking like swing states are lost causes.

Massachusetts has a history of republican governors in the last 20 years though. Only dem governor I remember is deval Patrick.

 

[Professor Emeritus]

Massachusetts has a history of republican governors in the last 20 years though. Only dem governor I remember is deval Patrick.

And until 2019 Florida had at least one Democratic senator continuously for over 100 years. Ohio has a Democratic senator right now. Both states voted for Obama twice.

There's literally nothing in Ohio or Florida's history to show that they'll refuse to vote for Democratic candidates. Folk way too in the moment with this shyt.

 

[NY's #1 Draft Pick]

And until 2019 Florida had at least one Democratic senator continuously for over 100 years. Ohio has a Democratic senator right now. Both states voted for Obama twice.

There's literally nothing in Ohio or Florida's history to show that they'll refuse to vote for Democratic candidates. Folk way too in the moment with this shyt.

Breh I’m well aware that we’ve had democrats in high positions in this state, but Florida hasn’t had a dem governor in over 20 years. Bill Nelson was a pretty popular senator from a red county and he was still voted out in favor of a corrupt governor in Rick Scott. Voters are becoming more radicalized and partisan than they were 10-20 years ago. Obama was like a once in a lifetime politician. I don’t see they demographics in Florida trending for the dems either. There needs to be heavy investment in the Democratic Party down here because they stay taking Ls.

 

[Professor Emeritus]

Breh I’m well aware that we’ve had democrats in high positions in this state, but Florida hasn’t had a dem governor in over 20 years. Bill Nelson was a pretty popular senator from a red county and he was still voted out in favor of a corrupt governor in Rick Scott. Voters are becoming more radicalized and partisan than they were 10-20 years ago. Obama was like a once in a lifetime politician. I don’t see they demographics in Florida trending for the dems either. There needs to be heavy investment in the Democratic Party down here because they stay taking Ls.

You are suggesting Dems can't win Florida because there's been a string of Republican governors, while at the same time pointing out there's been a bunch of Republican governors in Massachusetts too. Obviously having Republican governors a few times doesn't disqualify you from being a competitive state for Dems.

Nelson won in 2006 and 2012 and only lost in 2018 by 0.12%, just 10,000 votes out of 4 million. Obama won in 2008 and 2012, Clinton lost by just 1% in 2016 and even this year Biden only lost by 3% and that was with a horrible Latino outreach operation. Scott won by just 1% in 2010 and 2014 and then Gillum lost by just 0.4% in 2018 even with voter suppression. So Florida has provably been competitive for Dems in the last decade in presidential, senate, AND gubernatorial elections.

Old people are dying in every state, that's a demographic trend that helps democrats everywhere. Felons getting the vote is a demographic trend that helps dems too. To write off a state where Dems have either won or been within 1% in most statewide elections in the last 15 years is silly.

 

[Rekkapryde]

I think y'all underestimate how many people don't vote and how much demographics change every four years. Swings can be much larger than you think. There are only 18-19 states that are unwinnable in the next decade. Everything else is up for grabs. The DNC just had to try to actually earn the win instead of doing the same fukking shyt.

North Carolina will be VERY winnable