People forget this is an industry award. It's not about who made the best film, it's about whom the academy feels should win.
It's between PT Anderson and Kenneth Branagh. Both have been nominated for best picture but neither have ever won so they are 'due' to win. It's probably going to go to Branagh because he's older than Anderson.
But who knows, the academy has been getting a lot of heat because of their racism so best picture may end up going to King Richard.
Power Of The Dog has Best Picture and Best Director pretty much sowed up. Probably Adapted Screenplay as well.