Raiders mailbag: What’s the over/under on Antonio Brown breaking 1,300 yards, and will the pass rush get to league average?
By Vic Tafur May 17, 2019
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Jon Gruden had a busy week, what with Raiders veterans and rookies working out on the field together for the first time Monday, and then going to the Warriors game on Tuesday.
The Raiders coach and quarterback Derek Carr will talk to reporters on May 21, which is a media-access day. It’s Carr’s first time talking to the press since all the pre-draft rumors and team website photo of Kyler Murray and Tim Brown meeting each other. I will offer my subtitle services Tuesday, as I expect Carr to keep it positive, as always, and say he wasn’t sweating anything and express how much he and Gruden love each other.
But until then, you have questions and I have tall cup of rainy-day coffee. (As always, questions lightly edited for clarity and grammar.)
Go:
Mark S. asks, Curious if you will do a few over/unders for me.
Antonio Brown: 1,300 yards receiving
OVER. He already had the crazy work ethic, and now he wants to make the Steelers look bad and has a coach that will go to him often.
Derek Carr: 25 TD passes
OVER. That’s not very many in today’s NFL.
Josh Jacobs: 1,000 yards rushing
OVER: Just like with Brown, I think Gruden wants to show everyone he made the right moves this offseason and will get Jacobs a lot of touches.
Darren Waller: 500 yards receiving
UNDER: I can’t keep taking the overs or else this will be the greatest offense of all-time. I think the other tight ends get some snacks, plus the tight end role gets dialed down from last season.
Clelin Ferrell: 8 sacks
UNDER: For some reason, I envision 7.
Vontaze Burfict: 2 fines for dirty hits
OVER: He will get two on reputation alone, and will definitely earn at least another one.
Marty W. asks, Is Shane Ray still an option at DE at this point? I’d think he’d move right into a starting role opposite Clelin Ferrell with Benson Mayowa and Arden Key as depth.
He hasn’t signed anywhere yet, and he did visit, so I guess Ray is still an option. I think the Raiders will wait and see how the guys you mentioned, plus Josh Mauro and Maxx Crosby, look before adding another defensive end.
Mike E. asks, With Brandon Parker adding weight this offseason, any shot they give him a chance at the open guard spot opposite Gabe Jackson?
I think Parker will be the swing tackle behind Kolton Miller and Trent Brown. I have not heard one word about him moving to guard. I like Parker, and he is working hard to get better, but it is not a good sign that the team made Brown the highest-paid tackle in the league a year after drafting Parker in the third round and letting him start all season.
Jaden D. asks, Any insight on the team being on “Hard Knocks”?
Only that the Raiders brass really doesn’t want to do it.
Brian F. asks, Any word on the Richie Incognito situation after the visit last week?
No. Nothing new. I kind of expect it to happen, but they are waiting on the league to weigh in on a possible suspension and there is no real rush.
Zach C. asks, What are the chances Trayvon Mullen starts over Daryl Worley? Is it possible we see Lamarcus Joyner play primarily slot CB while Karl Joseph gets a shot to battle for FS with Dwayne Harris?
They are pretty high on Worley, which gives Mullen a high bar. I think it will be a three-man competition between those two and Gareon Conley, and they also told former Lion Nevin Lawson he will have a real chance to play a lot, too. I do think Joyner will play a lot at slot and Joseph will have to beat out Harris for playing time.
Jeff S. asks, Any sense of how the backup QB group might shake out?
I think Mike Glennon will be the No. 2, with Nathan Peterman sticking around as the No. 3 if he plays well and if the roster allows it. Landry Jones is getting paid to tell Gruden all of Antonio Brown’s favorite plays from Pittsburgh, and should hope to get a real look somewhere else come training camp.
David W. asks, What’s the deal with Arden Key not bulking up? You said the Raiders wanted him to but that he hasn’t. Is this a physical issue/injury, or has he been lazy this off-season? And you said around the draft that there was a story about Josh Allen that you didn’t want to drop at the time, and I got the impression that it influenced how the Raiders viewed him. What was the story?
I haven’t had a chance to talk to Key yet, and Paul Guenther danced around the question a little bit when I asked him. But Key doesn’t look bigger and I heard the staff was not pleased. We’ll see. Guenther said Key was lifting weights now, so I am sure we will get some more clarity this offseason.
I thought I told the Allen story, but basically I heard that the Raiders weren’t that impressed. I reported pretty early on he wasn’t in play for them at No. 4. I would never question a player’s toughness but there were concerns that he got pushed around a little on some plays at Kentucky and he may not have had enough dog in him for Gruden and Guenther’s liking. How’s that?
Daniel N. asks, How has P.J. Hall worked on getting better and more productive? And TEs have been killing the Raiders on defense for, like, forever now. What’s Guenther’s plan to change that? Is Brandon Marshall and/or Johnathan Abrams part of the solution?
I haven’t heard anything about Hall yet and I asked Guenther that same question, and he said to ask him after he got a good look at Marshall.
Jack C. asks, How many wins do you think it will cost the team to be a part of “Hard Knocks”? Was that part of your over/under the other day? I admire how you push buttons, Vic.
I don’t think “Hard Knocks” would affect them much. Gruden loves the cameras and Brown will be on his best behavior until it’s contract time again in a couple years. And there is no pressure on Carr at training camp, either. The rookies are very polished. It would be a love fest.
Steven S. asks, Does Alec Ingold have a chance to unseat Keith Smith at fullback? I know Rich Bisaccia likes Smith’s special-teams play but I was underwhelmed with him at fullback.
I would be shocked. Smith is Bisaccia’s guy.
Steven M, asks, Do you think the pass rush will be better? The Raiders had 13 sacks last year and the NFL average was around 40. How are they going to get an extra 27 sacks just to get to the middle of the pack?
Three words. Benson. Freakin’. Mayowa. Or … they improve a lot against the run and force teams into more passing downs, Ferrell is solid, Key is better and they get to 30.
(Photo: Joe Sargent/Getty Images)