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Nothing in my game is perfect’: Heat’s Derrick Jones Jr. aiming to improve across the board this offseason

Miami Heat forward Derrick Jones Jr. has dealt with disappointment before.

In 2016, he went undrafted out of UNLV. It was perhaps the lowest point of his basketball career because it left him toiling in the G League with hopes of earning an opportunity. That feeling of desperation is something he hopes never to experience again, which is why he will not be taking it easy this summer.

In one season, Jones went from developmental project to perhaps one of the team’s cornerstone players alongside Josh Richardson, Justise Winslow and Bam Adebayo.

Still, he is approaching this offseason as if he were trying to earn a roster spot in the fall. Nothing has changed from the days of feeling unwanted.

“Nobody is guaranteed tomorrow,” Jones said. “Nobody’s spot is guaranteed. Anything can happen tomorrow. If the season was to start tomorrow, you never know who will play. I just go out there every day and try to outwork everybody in front of me to stay on the floor.”

Jones averaged career-highs in nearly every statistical category last season. At one point, he was a mainstay in the starting lineup.

The best part is the Heat brass feel he is nowhere near his ceiling. The question is whether or not can Jones prove he is more than just an explosive leaper, a talent he often displayed on high-flying dunks. The player nicknamed “Airplane Mode” will have to show he can be counted on as a consistent jump shooter and defender.

Coach Erik Spoelstra said Jones’ rapid growth played a role in established veteran Kelly Olynyk falling out of the rotation at one point during last season.

“Derrick Jones was making me play him to the point where other people were affected by that,” Spoelstra said.

Jones conquered one of his biggest obstacles by gaining 18 pounds of muscle during the season. His skinny frame was always a question mark because teams felt he could not defend at both forward spots. Last season, though, he was matched against everyone from Blake Griffin to Kevin Durant.

Jones said he wants to put on another 10 pounds before training camp begins in September. He is already working with the team nutritionist.

“Derrick, I would like to see him — and he will after a summer of work — really look like Scottie Pippen,” Spoelstra said. “He has that kind of frame. It’s a matter of just fine-tuning it, and (Heat president Pat Riley) says all the time, world-class shape. Best in the world. I think his game and being able to withstand injury will go to another level of really coming back and his physique looking even better than it did this year.”

Added Jones, “My game has changed a lot. My weight has changed a lot. I’m just trying to get my body in as great shape as possible so I can stay on the floor as much as I can.”

If Jones continues the rapid ascent, the Heat will have four players 25 and under who they are grooming as their future core with Dwyane Wade retiring and Udonis Haslem not too far behind. Also, Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside have said publicly they are considering opting out of the final years of their contracts, potentially creating more opportunities for the young players.

Richardson emerged this season as the team’s top scorer, and Winslow flourished at point guard while Dragic was out two months with a knee injury. Adebayo, too, made huge strides in his second season. An improved Jones would give the Heat a solid young foundation to match with a potential big-time free agent they will have the salary cap space to sign in the summer of 2020. Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond, DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry are among the names who will be available.

“If you were to redraft today … Josh, as a second-round pick, would probably be a lottery pick today,” Riley said. “I mean, Derrick Jones Jr. — this is rationalization, now — Derrick Jones Jr. would be considered probably a late first-round pick. So we’re happy with how we’ve acquired talent.”

Jones has spent the early portion of the offseason breaking down film of his game to find areas in need of improvement. Among them are his jump shot, pick-and-roll defense and rebounding. When asked what he needs to work on, he responded, “just everything.”

“Nothing in my game is perfect,” Jones continued. “My offensive game definitely isn’t perfect. My defensive game isn’t perfect … I’m going to do whatever I possibly can. I’m going to do whatever I did this year 10 times more in the summer.”

Jones is so focused on improving he is even open to playing for the Heat’s summer league team in Las Vegas in July. The two-week event is typically reserved for rookies, second-year players and anyone still trying to land a roster spot. Two years ago, Jones was clinging to a two-way deal before signing a contract at the start of last season.

The fact that he is willing to play during the summer when it is not a necessity is proof of his commitment to growth.

“I don’t think anybody ever outgrows summer league. It just depends if the organization you’re with wants you to play,” Jones said. “If they want me to play, I’m not going to say no.”
Couldn’t rep but :salute:
 

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Long ass article here’s part 1
Rosenthal: Derek Jeter’s right-hand man is tearing up a franchise and creating enemies along the way

He wanted the dogs out of the clubhouse. No, it was worse than that. Gary Denbo, the Marlins’ vice president of player development and scouting, could not tolerate the dogs, who had been a popular part of the Greensboro Grasshoppers’ scene since August 2006, fetching bats, carrying buckets of balls to the plate umpire, running the bases after every game.

The dogs are such a phenomenon that the bucket of the late Miss Babe Ruth, a Labrador Retriever who once worked 638 consecutive home games, is on display at the National Baseball Hall of Fame. But Denbo, making an unannounced visit to the Marlins’ Low-A affiliate in June 2018, was not interested in upholding tradition. He took one look at the two dog kennels in the clubhouse and demanded that they be removed, berating a clubhouse attendant, a longtime employee of the team who is in his 50s.

The exchange was the breaking point in the Marlins’ 16-year relationship with Greensboro, according to the team’s president and general manager, Donald Moore, who said he simply could not work with Denbo. Moore subsequently made a deal with the Pirates’ organization, and the Marlins settled for a much less advantageous affiliation in Clinton, Iowa, where the ballpark is considered outdated and remote.

That dispute was not an isolated incident for Denbo, 58, a longtime mentor and confidant of Marlins CEO and former Yankees great Derek Jeter. Denbo has transformed the organization with his brusque and at times overbearing manner, and he remains a polarizing figure in his second full season with the Marlins, eliciting strong loyalty from those who support him and strong enmity from those who do not.

“I’ve never encountered someone in baseball — or in life, honestly — who seemed to go so far out of their way to treat other people badly, to the extent where you think, ‘Why would anyone do this?’” one former Marlins employee says.

Others say Denbo is giving the Marlins precisely the jolt they need after years of lacking direction under previous owner Jeffrey Loria.

“He’s an outstanding guy — focused, very professional, all-in on trying to make the Marlins better, very determined to make them great,” says the team’s first-year minor-league catching coordinator, former MLB catcher Jamie Quirk.

Jeter, through a spokesman, declined to comment on Denbo.

More than 75 employees in baseball operations have left the Marlins since Major League Baseball approved the $1.2 billion sale of the club to Jeter and Bruce Sherman in September 2017. A high rate of turnover is not unusual after a team changes owners, and the Marlins, who have not had a winning season since 2009, had particular reason to seek a new direction. But while more than half of the departed employees were fired or not renewed, nearly 35 left of their own accord, many joining more successful organizations — and many citing Denbo’s personality and decision-making as primary factors.

A consistent portrait of Denbo as an unyielding authoritarian emerged in interviews The Athletic conducted with more than 20 former Marlins employees and a dozen others in baseball over the past 11 months. Those former employees say Denbo engaged in verbal abuse, fat shaming and blatant favoritism toward certain Marlins personnel.

None of the former Marlins employees was willing to speak on the record. Some declined because they were still being paid by the club and didn’t want to risk losing money, others because they were concerned about the potential reactions of their new employers.

Baseball staffers, like players, are accustomed to switching jobs, knowing it is rare to spend an entire career with one team. Some resent change, but most accept it as part of the business. The anger toward Denbo is atypical, reflecting his sometimes harsh approach and snarly demeanor.

Whether that approach will succeed in turning around one of baseball’s weakest franchises remains to be seen. The Marlins’ 63-98 record in 2018, their first year under new ownership, was the worst in the National League. Their 9-24 record this season also is the worst in the majors. The team, however, has ramped up its international scouting and made a series of trades to improve its farm system, which had an average ranking of 27th by Baseball America from 2014 to ’18 but this year ranked 13th.

“I’ve never encountered someone in baseball — or in life, honestly — who seemed to go so far out of their way to treat other people badly, to the extent where you think, ‘Why would anyone do this?’”

“We know we still have a lot of work to do, but feel very confident we are headed in the right direction,” Denbo said in an email.

Some say the atmosphere around the Marlins is improving as Jeter and Denbo continue to make their own hires, but others, including some with no ties to the franchise or personal stake in the matter, question whether Denbo is the right person to play a lead role in rebuilding the club. Michael Hill has been the team’s president of baseball operations since September 2013 and previously was its general manager for six seasons. But Denbo has emerged as Jeter’s most significant adviser, numerous sources say, even though he has no previous experience as a lead decision-maker.

The relationship between Denbo and Jeter dates to the former shortstop’s first pro season, in 1992, and includes time spent in Greensboro, where Denbo was Jeter’s manager in ’93. During his 20-year playing career, Jeter developed a reputation for treating people impeccably well. Denbo has developed quite a different reputation. But Jeter, knowing few other baseball executives, trusted his longtime friend to establish the same type of order he did while turning around the Yankees’ farm system as the team’s vice president of player development, a position Denbo held from October 2014 to October 2017.

That trust already has cost Jeter and the Marlins their valued minor-league affiliate in Greensboro, which led the South Atlantic League in attendance in 2017 and ’18 and helped launch the careers of future stars such as Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich. For Jeter, whose share in the Marlins reportedly is 4 percent and who originally signed a five-year contract as CEO that expires at the end of the 2022 season, the danger is that his faith in Denbo will cost him even more.
The Marlins announced the hiring of Denbo on Oct. 9, 2017, exactly one week after the new ownership officially closed on the purchase of the club. To those in baseball, the reunion between Jeter and Denbo was practically a foregone conclusion. What few knew at the time is that, as multiple sources have since confirmed, the Yankees did not plan to retain Denbo.

The reason the Yankees grew disenchanted with Denbo is a running theme in the executive’s career, according to a number of people who know him well. Virtually no one disputes his talent as a hitting coach, a role he held twice at the major-league level, or the impact he made running the Yankees’ farm system. But Denbo is not a people person, and at times does not play well with others.

Denbo, who was born in Princeton, Ind., and spent four seasons as a minor-league infielder with the Reds in the 1980s, worked three separate times for the Yankees’ organization covering 23 years. For most of his first stretch, from 1990 to 2000, he was a minor-league manager and hitting instructor. The Yankees made him their major-league hitting coach in ’01 but kept him on manager Joe Torre’s staff for only one season, which ended with the team losing the World Series to the Diamondbacks in seven games.

While Denbo enjoyed the respect of Jeter, he had difficulty connecting with a number of the team’s other veterans, sources say. Denbo’s use of videotape in breaking down swings did not resonate the way the Yankees had expected. Torre, according to published reports at the time, repeatedly volunteered that the hitters were relying too much on video and not enough on instinct.

After a year as a scout for the Indians, Denbo in 2003 became the hitting coach under his former Yankees colleague and current Marlins first base coach, Trey Hillman, who then was the manager of the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters in Japan. Denbo left the Fighters in August 2005, in the middle of his third season. The reason, he says, was that he missed his wife and two children.

One player with the team, however, described Denbo as steadfast in his refusal to accept Japanese baseball culture, creating tension within the organization that was palpable and ultimately disruptive. Hillman better adapted to the culture over time, and he led the Fighters to the Japan Series title the year after Denbo departed.
Denbo rejoined the Yankees in 2009, worked the next six seasons as a scout, and proved to be a dynamo after the team elevated him to farm director in ’15. He raised standards and improved the culture, becoming, in the words of one former colleague, “a stickler for Yankee tradition in a good way.” A rival GM offers additional praise, saying, “It’s hard to argue a lot of those players weren’t getting better. That was happening.”

But during that time, according to some of his former co-workers, Denbo displayed the same high-strung, over-the-top style that later would become an issue with the Marlins. Employees with both clubs have complained about him to their human resources departments, multiple sources say, though the full context of the complaints and their outcomes are not known. Both the Yankees and Marlins said they do not comment on HR issues.

Unwilling to tolerate differences of opinion, Denbo would favor certain Yankees employees and all but ignore others, walking past them without saying hello. Camps formed within the organization. Those Denbo trusted were devoted to him; those he excluded felt marginalized, even belittled. A staffer who disappointed Denbo or disagreed with him could move quickly from the former group to the latter.

“His way was the only way,” one former Yankees colleague says. “He was always right.”

Denbo at times also overstepped his authority, notably in a memorable episode in July 2017 when he authorized one of his analysts in player development, Dan Greenlee, to sign Jose Carrera, a shortstop out of Manhattan College whom the Yankees measured at 5-foot-1, 135 pounds.

The Yankees’ amateur scouting department bypassed Carrera in the 40 rounds of the draft and recommended against signing him as a free agent, sources say. But Greenlee, who later joined Denbo with the Marlins as the team’s director of player personnel, liked Carrera and petitioned Denbo to bring him into the organization.

Denbo says the Yankees signed Carrera after losing several middle infielders to injuries in the Gulf Coast League. Carrera cost the Yankees virtually nothing and performed well, even hitting a game-tying homer to help the affiliate win the league’s championship game. But Denbo’s power play rankled the amateur scouting department, which viewed the signing of Carrera as outside of Denbo’s realm. The Yankees released Carrera last June 26, and he remains out of baseball.

With the Marlins, the chain of command is less of a concern for Denbo. The team empowered him to oversee not only player development but also amateur, professional and international scouting. The increased responsibility only exacerbated some of the communication issues that Denbo had with the Yankees; two baseball people who worked with Denbo believe his volatile behavior with the Marlins stems from the inferior state of his new team.

“My opinion is the guy was born and bred a Yankee, and he didn’t want to leave,” one of those former colleagues says. “Then he goes to the Marlins, and it’s like, ‘Are we in the big leagues?’”

Kyle Farjad was a 33rd-round draft pick out of Palm Beach Community College in 2017, a left-handed pitcher who stood long odds of ever reaching the majors. But before spring training even started in ’18, Farjad was one of only a few players reporting at 7 a.m. to the Marlins’ spring-training complex in Jupiter, Fla., trying to get a jump start on his preparation for camp.

One morning, Farjad was training with a minor-league conditioning coach, repeatedly sprinting 90 yards, then walking back and touching a line. At one point, to his surprise, he noticed a Marlins official standing on the line, “mean-mugging” him.

It was Denbo.

“Do you know who I am?” he asked Farjad.

“No, but nice to meet you,” Farjad responded, introducing himself.

Denbo then informed Farjad of his name and title, and asked him if he thought he was in “top-notch shape” for spring training. Farjad, a bigger-bodied type who was listed at 5-foot-11, 205 pounds, said he felt he was in pretty good shape but was sure he could improve. To which he recalls Denbo replying, “Good. You better get your ass in shape or you’re not going to be there.”

Farjad says the Marlins released him a few weeks into camp, after Denbo had seen him throw only once. He has yet to catch on with another club. Word of how Denbo had dressed him down — “he just came out there and ripped me for no reason, absolutely no reason,” Farjad says — spread quickly through Marlins circles.

Denbo says he advised several players during the spring of 2018, the team’s first under new ownership, that they did not meet the organization’s new standards for conditioning. Almost 30 percent of the Marlins’ minor leaguers reported above their targeted weight, according to Denbo. This past spring, thanks to the players’ work and improvements in the team’s strength and conditioning, he says, the number was less than 5 percent.
 
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Part 2. Continued
But former Marlins employees, however, say that Denbo takes his attention to fitness to another level, disdaining people who he saw as overweight. His opinions of major- and minor-league players and coaches, front-office personnel and draft prospects, even bat boys in spring training, are framed by his perceptions of their appearance. One former employee, upon his departure, made the Marlins’ human resources department aware of Denbo’s treatment of people he perceived as overweight. Another former employee says, “You can’t say, ‘I don’t like fat people,’ and have that be OK.”

Two incidents offer additional insight into Denbo’s perspective on physical conditioning.

In meetings to prepare for the 2018 amateur draft, a number of Marlins scouts liked Ryan Weathers, a left-handed pitcher from Loretto (Tenn.) High School. Weathers, in the scouts’ parlance, is a “soft-bodied guy,” much like his father, former major-league pitcher David Weathers. But the area scout assigned to Ryan’s territory noted that the pitcher was a good basketball player, an average athlete despite his body, maybe better.

Denbo proceeded to humiliate the scout, mocking his evaluation — an account Denbo denies but which was confirmed by multiple sources in the room.

Weathers, 19, went to the Padres with the seventh overall pick. Before this season, MLBPipeline.com named him the 10th-best prospect in the game’s top-ranked farm system. In his first five starts for Class A Fort Wayne of the Midwest League, Weathers produced a 1.82 ERA. He currently is on the injured list due to fatigue.

Denbo also has raised weight as a concern for Marlins employees. In January 2018, during his initial meeting with about 10 high-level regional and national amateur scouts known as cross-checkers, he delivered a PowerPoint presentation that included rudimentary scouting advice: Look for pitchers with big arms, good deliveries and projection bodies.But to the cross-checkers, virtually all of whom had at least 20 years of experience, Denbo’s Scouting 101 perspective was not the most disturbing part of his lecture.

Denbo, according to multiple sources who were present, said that as he scanned the room, he observed that many of the scouts would benefit from getting to the gym more. The implication was clear: They were overweight.

“I did not tell our scouts that they were overweight at any point in time,” said Denbo. “I advised them, as I do all of our staff, that the travel and time demands of being a pro scout or player development coach make it difficult to focus on personal health — so don’t forget to eat right and work out as part of your daily routine.”

But those in the room were stunned by Denbo’s suggestion that they were too heavy, as well as by the way he harped on the subject.

“You’re meeting this guy for the first time,” one of the scouts says. “You don’t expect anything like this to come out of anyone’s mouth.”

“It’s like he flips a switch and you better look out, because he’s about to go off.”

Weight, though, was but one flashpoint for Denbo. Convinced the Marlins had a losing culture, he appeared eager to upend every department, even if it meant losing good people along the way.

Many in the Marlins’ offices grew nervous in his presence, knowing he was prone to snap, his face turning red, his language turning foul. In the words of one former employee, “It’s like he flips a switch and you better look out, because he’s about to go off.”

During spring training in 2018, Denbo conducted his initial meeting with the team’s pro scouts, a group tasked with evaluating major- and- minor-league players from other organizations, as well as winter-league free agents, for potential acquisitions. According to multiple people in attendance, Denbo began by saying that on the 2-to-8 scouting scale, the group the previous season had rated a 3 — well below average.

The scouts in the room included Orrin Freeman, who has been with the Marlins since their inception in 1991, and Paul Ricciarini, who began his scouting career more than 40 years ago. The group also included four scouts in their first year with the organization, most notably former major-league pitcher Aaron Sele and two younger, lower-level office assistants, Garrick Chaffee, 29, and Preston Higbe, 27. Other scouts who had been with the club in ’17 already had left the organization.

To the holdovers, Denbo’s critique was not only condescending — “Oh my God,” one person in the room thought, “it’s a (minor-league) field coordinator yelling at his players” — but also uninformed.

Jeffrey Loria’s fickle nature often forced the Marlins into ill-advised baseball decisions, the team careening from one plan to the next. Denbo says he simply communicated to the pro scouts that the Marlins were raising standards for their department and all others in the organization. He seemingly did not know or did not care about the challenges the pro scouts faced under Loria, a theme that emerged in his dealings with other departments as well.

“Guys were livid,” one former pro scout recalls. “I was like, ‘That’s how you want to start this whole thing off?’ And, really, his feelings toward us never changed. We didn’t have one time where it felt like we were doing anything correct in his eyes.”

Some of the scouts in the meeting that day remain with the Marlins, but even at a time when traditional scouting jobs are increasingly scarce, many have landed with other clubs.

Denbo’s influence also led to turnover in other departments. One of the most egregious losses, in the view of many former employees, was Brett West, 32, who joined the Marlins as a baseball operations assistant in 2011 and rose to the position of assistant farm director. West was beloved in the organization, and in the words of one former colleague he is “as nice a soul as you can find.”

Like other holdovers from the previous regime, West learned quickly that the fastest way to fall out of favor with Denbo was to disagree with him — for example, by offering a dissenting evaluation on a player, the type of opinion that sparks constructive debate in virtually every organization.

Former Marlins employees recall in particular a dispute over shade coverings that Denbo wanted to be installed over the bleachers on a field at the Marlins’ training complex, a field the team used for its games in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League. At one point, according to multiple sources, Denbo snapped at West, “I’ll put your desk out there tomorrow if you can’t get this done.”

Denbo says West did not complete the project, which was approved by ownership. The sources, however, say West never received such approval from either the Loria or the Jeter-Sherman group and was therefore blamed for events beyond his control.

West resigned in late April 2018, after the season already had started, and is now a pro scout with the Diamondbacks.

“Every inherited employee was going to be blamed for the shortcomings of previous ownership,” a former Marlins employee says. “Whether you liked it or not, whether it was fair or not, didn’t matter.”

The changing of the guard within the Marlins became strikingly evident during the team’s internal discussions at the 2017 general managers’ meetings in Orlando, Fla., about six weeks after the Sherman-Jeter group officially took control.

Denbo, not president of baseball operations Michael Hill, led the conversations. And when Denbo wanted an opinion on a player, he did not ask two department heads who were holdovers from the previous regime — Jim Cuthbert, 43, the director of pro scouting, or 33-year-old Jason Paré, the senior director of analytics, a Yale graduate who had worked for the Indians and Blue Jays. Denbo wanted to hear only from his new director of player personnel, Dan Greenlee, whom he had brought over from the Yankees.

As Denbo saw it, quite accurately, the Marlins’ entire operation was below the standards of the Yankees. The difference was especially glaring in analytics and technological infrastructure — the Marlins did not have the same manpower, the same information systems, the same type of integrated scouting platform as the Yankees and other clubs possessed.

Loria had committed only a fraction of the resources that the Yankees had devoted to analytics. Denbo frequently would tell Marlins employees he did not want to hear excuses. But within the limitations he was working under, Paré went as far as he could.

On Dec. 10, 2017, less than a month after the GM meetings, Paré left the Marlins to reunite with his former GM with the Blue Jays, Alex Anthopoulos, and become the Braves’ assistant GM of research and development. Greenlee, Denbo’s handpicked analytics expert, created his own eight-person analytics department, assuming even greater power and escalating tension within the organization.

Many of the holdover scouts and minor-league staffers viewed Greenlee as overly reliant on Trackman data, the radar-based technology all 30 clubs employ for player evaluation and development.

The new regime’s strict adherence to data — and frequent refusal to embrace positive developments that occurred under the previous regime — came to a head in the team’s handling of utility man Austin Nola, 29, the older brother of Phillies ace Aaron Nola.

Austin Nola was the Marlins’ fifth-round draft pick out of LSU in 2012, an infielder with terrific makeup whose career seemingly was plateauing at Triple A when the team’s minor-league catching coordinator, former major-league catcher Paul Phillips, persuaded him to try catching in 2016.
Initially, and not surprisingly for a player who never had caught, Nola struggled in his bullpen sessions with pitchers at Triple A. Undaunted, and hell-bent on improving as a receiver, he became a taxi player with the Mesa Solar Sox, the team Phillips was helping coach in the Arizona Fall League.

Officials from the Marlins’ previous regime would come to view him as a player-development success story — “the poster child,” one former employee says, “for what you want.”

Nola couldn’t get enough of catching. “Middle infield is fun,” he says, “but you can’t even compare it to the catching position as far as being in the game and learning.” Solar Sox manager Ryan Christenson eventually put him behind the plate for four games, and the Marlins were encouraged enough by Nola’s progress to add him to the team’s 40-man roster in advance of the 2016 winter meetings. Club officials believed Nola might develop into a serviceable backup catcher and feared that, if they left him unprotected, a rival club intrigued by his burgeoning versatility would grab him in the Rule 5 draft.

The Marlins’ new regime, upon taking over in October 2017, knew Nola only from his poor metrics that season, his first as a full-time catcher. They risked losing him by designating him for assignment at the end of 2018 spring training, but no team claimed Nola on waivers and he was sent to Triple A. Greenlee and his staff never warmed to him — and in the view of some who no longer are with the organization, actively sabotaged him.

Nola became a free agent last November and drew interest from 20 teams, a remarkable number for a backup catcher, according to his agent, Joe Longo. The Mariners signed him to a minor-league contract and he is currently at Triple A, where he is hitting .376 with a 1.089 OPS in 97 plate appearances.

Phillips, Nola’s biggest advocate, sent a letter of resignation to many in the organization, including Denbo and Jeter, on June 11, 2018, right in the middle of the season. In it, Phillips seemed to question the Trackman framing data and Greenlee’s insistence to scouts that they “make your grades match the stats.”

Teams generally consider Trackman a more reliable measure of framing than a scout’s judgment from behind the plate. But some who were with the Marlins at the time say the framing data did not always pass the eye test, and those occasional blips caused them to question its accuracy.

In his resignation letter, Phillips spoke fondly of his player-development colleagues who had been dismissed by the new regime, saying, “There were no secrets and no manipulation of information, just everyone working together as a group for the betterment of the organization. That working environment is no longer a part of the Marlins’ player development, and that is the reason for my resignation and acceptance of another position.”

While a number of holdovers from the Marlins’ previous regime still feel like outcasts, Denbo is showing a kinder, gentler side in his second full season with the club. Employees say he seems more focused and comfortable now that many of his own people are in place. A holdover whose wife recently fell ill said Denbo could not have reacted with more understanding or compassion.

A more positive work environment certainly would benefit the Marlins. Yet, for all the upheaval the team has experienced, Denbo and his top assistants ultimately will be judged not by how they treat non-uniformed personnel but by their on-field results.

Some who knew Denbo from his days with the Yankees consider him a strong judge of talent, but evaluating players within an organization as a hitting coach or even as a farm director is simpler than completing free-agent signings and trades. Hill, one of the team’s top decision-makers since 2007, is experienced in transactions. Jeter, Denbo and Greenlee are not.

Within months of taking over, the new regime began the franchise’s latest dismantling, executing trades of second baseman Dee Gordon and outfielders Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna during an eight-day span in December 2017, followed by a fourth major deal involving Christian Yelich on Jan. 25, 2018.
Those trades — fueled largely by Greenlee’s data-driven assessments, with little input from the pro scouting department, former employees say — yielded two current major leaguers, second baseman Starlin Castro and right-hander Sandy Alcantara, plus 9 of the team’s top 30 prospects, according to MLBPipeline.com. The Marlins recently demoted outfielder Lewis Brinson, who was part of the Yelich deal.
 

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Part 3 Continued
The Marlins view the Stanton trade, in particular, as something of a coup: They cleared a potential $265 million in salary while acquiring Castro and two prospects, right-hander Jorge Guzman and infielder Jose Devers. But it will be years before the moves, including the widely criticized return for Yelich (Brinson and Monte Harrison, infielder Isan Díaz and right-hander Jordan Yamamoto) can be properly evaluated.

The team’s latest big deal — catcher J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies for right-hander Sixto Sánchez, catcher Jorge Alfaro, left-hander Will Stewart and $250,000 in international bonus pool space — comes with the usual risk in acquiring young players. Sánchez, the centerpiece, is a brilliant talent at age 20, but the Phillies made him available all offseason, apparently viewing him as a long-term health concern.

The Marlins opened the season with a $71.9 million payroll, the second-lowest in the majors behind the Rays’ $60.1 million, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They have also made a series of lesser moves in their out-with-the-old push that qualify as questionable. They non-tendered infielder Derek Dietrich, whose nine homers for the Reds are more than any Marlin has hit this season, and traded reliever Nick Wittgren, who has a 0.87 ERA with the Indians and is under control through 2022, for a prospect.

Other decisions worked out better. Left-hander Caleb Smith, acquired from the Yankees in a deal that cost the Marlins pitching prospect Michael King and upset some in the organization, is third in the NL with a 2.00 ERA in six starts. But for the Marlins to achieve lasting success, Denbo, along with farm director dikk Scott, will need to weave the same player-development magic he did with the Yankees and rely on the farm system to churn out productive major leaguers.

For years, the Marlins spun their wheels under Loria, and the decision of the Sherman-Jeter ownership to cut payroll and rebuild the farm, rather than supplement a major-league core that included Stanton, Yelich and others, set the franchise back further. Perhaps the Marlins needed to retrench before moving forward, a strategy employed by numerous other clubs in recent times. But they are playing catch-up in an increasingly competitive NL East.

The Marlins fired hitting coach Mike Pagliarulo on April 19, after only 20 games. On Friday, they dismissed president of business operations Chip Bowers after 15 months. Manager Don Mattingly, who is in the final year of his contract, might be replaced at the end of the season.

As Jeter and Denbo continue to turn over personnel, they will lose their default position: The ability to blame the previous regime for the team’s woes.
The change in affiliations from the Marlins to the Pirates barely has had an impact on the Greensboro Grasshoppers’ business. The team has had two early postponements and four other games delayed by rain, yet it still ranks third in the 14-team South Atlantic League in attendance.

Donald Moore, the team’s owner, fondly recalls a 2015 exhibition with the major-league Marlins, when Yelich, Realmuto and Steve Cishek all asked about his dogs. Master Yogi Berra died in August 2017, and Miss Babe Ruth in May 2018, but Miss Lou Lou Gehrig remains, with Little Jackie Robinson, who recently celebrated her first birthday, currently in training.

Denbo says now that his issue with the dogs was that their kennels were in the same area where players were served food. Moore says Denbo never mentioned that in his initial rant to the clubhouse attendant, demanding only that the dogs be removed. Moore adds there is no kitchen in the clubhouse, and the dogs are inside only when the players are on the field.

Jeter made a personal visit with Hill and other team officials in July 2018, about a month after Denbo’s outburst, and tried to extend the affiliation. “Let’s get that renewed, get it out of the way,” Jeter said. But Moore balked, even though he liked Jeter, who had sent him a handwritten note upon his induction into the South Atlantic League Hall of Fame the previous month. Jeter praised Moore’s leadership of the club and included a donation to the Babe and Yogi Scholarship Endowment at the North Carolina State University College of Veterinary Medicine, an endowment named for the two Greensboro bat dogs that had passed away.

Bruce Sherman, the Marlins’ majority owner, made his own visit to Greensboro toward the end of that season with his wife, Cynthia. Moore says the Shermans thought Miss Lou Lou Gehrig was one of the coolest things they had ever seen at a baseball game, and they even toured the clubhouse to meet her. But by then, Moore had all but made up his mind. He would not work with Denbo, and so he would not stay with the Marlins.

As Moore puts it, “There must be only one guy in all of minor-league baseball who doesn’t like dogs.”
 

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Part one

Well, that was fun.

In what was the most important NBA Draft Lottery of the last seven years, we got complete and unbridled chaos. Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling! The dead rising from the grave! Dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria!

OK, maybe I went full Ghostbusters there for a second, but that’s absolutely what this event felt like following the NBA’s decision to flatten the lottery odds in order to de-incentivize tanking league-wide. This is what Adam Silver wanted — or at least the result that was always likely to happen.

Here is what stood out to me on what was a genuinely momentous night for the league. It cannot be emphasized enough that the trajectory of multiple franchises was altered tonight in a way that we’re only starting to see repercussions from.

The Pelicans win the Zion Williamson sweepstakes … and more

The biggest story coming out of this event was always going to revolve around who won the right to have Zion Williamson suit up for them for the next set of years. Indeed, that will be the Pelicans, after entering the proceedings with only a six percent chance to end up with the Duke megastar.

That’s exactly what Williamson is, and that’s who new lead of basketball operations David Griffin will get to build around as he re-shapes and remakes the Pelicans roster in wake of an impending Anthony Davis trade. I’ll have more on Williamson’s fit with the Pelicans coming tomorrow, so I won’t belabor that point.

But beyond Williamson, I’m still expecting that Davis will be dealt. Apparently, that is also what Davis wishes, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic. So what packages will be out there for the Pelicans to explore? Well, they got great news tonight. In addition to their own rise to No. 1, two of the main suitors expected to be involved in the Anthony Davis sweepstakes cemented their own standing in the draft. While the Knicks fell to No. 3 despite having the worst record in the league, that’s still a strong pick in this draft to use as a trade asset, given that R.J. Barrett happens to be pretty close with the future of the Pelicans franchise. Additionally, it’s very possible that the Knicks simply would have decided to keep Williamson instead of using him as a trade chip for Davis, thus effectively taking them out of the running and creating one less suitor. Is it possible that Griffin likes Barrett enough to swing a potential deal in favor of the Knicks? They wouldn’t be my choice, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable.

The bigger news, though, is that the Lakers moved up to No. 4, thus giving them a huge trade chip in addition to what is already an interesting package of young players in Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Kyle Kuzma, and Josh Hart. I do think there is a world now where that ends up being the best package on the market for Davis. I’d take that one over the Knicks package, at the very least.

Ultimately though, a lot of this is going to come down to what Boston decides to do. The Celtics, as we’ll discuss in a second, also got good news when the Grizzlies moved up in the draft and thus cemented their pick into place for another year. The Celtics will now either receive a 2020 or 2021 first round pick from Memphis that figures to be pretty valuable (particularly if it comes in 2021, when it’s unprotected). Is it possible the team could decide to make a move for Anthony Davis even if Kyrie Irving leaves? I personally would not go down that road if I was Boston, but I don’t think it’s impossible that they choose to given that they’re kind of between a rock and a hard place after their five-game second round exit at the hands of Milwaukee. The fact that Boston kept this pick, though, is a good thing for New Orleans because it gives them more options.

Basically, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a lottery night go as positively for one team as it did tonight for New Orleans. They get a franchise player, a marketing icon that they can build around. Then, to top it all off, the important teams in the Davis sweepstakes either bolstered their positions or held steady. David Griffin got dealt the Ace-King of hearts tonight, then flopped the queen, jack and 10 of hearts for a royal flush in his first hand at the table. Literally, the odds of the lottery going this way with the Pelicans winning, the Celtics keeping the Grizzlies pick, the Lakers moving into the top-four, and the Knicks staying in the top-three were about 0.04 percent.

The Lakers get another asset by moving up to No. 4

This is going to be a big story, as just about everything is Laker Land. But honestly, I do believe that it is a critical outcome that now positions the Lakers extremely well to be able to make a trade for a star player. Maybe it’s the aforementioned Davis if Boston chooses to not get involved. Maybe it’s Bradley Beal if the Wizards decide to move him this summer (Beal would be just about as perfect a fit next to LeBron James as you’ll find around the league). Maybe it’s just a mini move like grabbing Mike Conley with part of their asset cache?

Or, maybe the move is just to take another good young player that they can build slowly around as LeBron ages a….Okay, that’s probably not going to happen. The expectation around the league is that the Lakers will look heavily into moving this pick to help James sooner rather than later, something general manager Rob Pelinka alluded to in his conference call after the lottery balls fell in their favor.

“We owe a commitment to our fans to have an outstanding season next year,” Pelinka said. “What this does is it gives us the ability to either select an impact player at [No.] 4 or possibly use this as an extremely valuable asset in trade.”

Yeah, expect the Lakers to be extremely active over the next month leading up to the draft. One thing worth noting here, though? The Lakers pick at No. 11 was going to have a salary cap hold and eventual hit of about $4 million. Now, that will jump to about $7 million. Obviously, that’s a substantial difference in how the team gets to attack its offseason. On one hand, it does take away $3 million in potential cap space if the team doesn’t make a corresponding move. However, it also gives them $3 million more in potential salary ballast for a trade including the pick. With the Lakers last year, it was difficult to aggregate salaries enough to where they could get to the level commensurate with a star. That probably will not be the case this offseason if they do their order of operations properly.

The Knicks fall in the lottery, but all is not lost

Look, I know that Knicks’ fans had dreams of Zion on Broadway. It would have been a lot of fun seeing him play half of his games at Madison Square Garden. But the Knicks should feel great about ending up in the top-three, given that they only had about a 40 percent chance of doing so. And honestly, I’m a big fan of R.J. Barrett’s fit with the Knicks. I get that there are concerns and jokes about his shot selection. I get that there is real worry in regard to how his athleticism will translate to the NBA, given that he has pretty stiff hips and an average first step.

But I’m a believer in him figuring it out long-term and becoming something resembling a star (if not just an outright one). Why? Because I think Duke’s team this year did not help him or accentuate his gifts. The team had very little floor spacing around him, as Cam Reddish shot 33 percent from 3, Williamson shot 34 percent, Tre Jones shot 26.2 percent, and they traditionally played a true center that didn’t shoot at all. That really cut down on the straight line driving lanes for Barrett, as teams just sagged off of the spot-up guys without recourse. The NBA will be different as the increased space on the floor will help him find creases and get to the lane, where he’s terrific at drawing fouls and absorbing contact.

Additionally, while Barrett shot just 30.8 percent from 3 this past season, I actually think he’s going to be a better shooter than that in the pros. The trajectory of his jump shot’s development is pointing up despite the percentage looking poor. He can actually get to his pull-up and step-back jumper with some reasonable efficiency now, which allowed him to get up over six attempts per game from distance. Barrett is a confident player, and a tireless worker. This is not his final evolution. Guys like him tend to figure it out as shooters on some level. And once it does come along, I think that’s the critical part of how he opens up the rest of his game and gets defenders off-balance, as he already is pretty smart with his change of pace.

It’s also worth noting that some executives see Barrett as something of a big lead guard. I actually think there is real potential there if he was willing to cut out some of the awful shots from his game. At 6-foot-7, Barrett’s ability to survey and see over defenses is underrated, and he’s a really terrific passer when he wants to be. He had 11 games with at least six assists this season. But for him, it’s a mentality thing more than anything else. Barrett needs to understand that he can be aggressive and be a killer while also being unselfish. One thing doesn’t have to stop the other from occurring.

The last thing I’ll note is that I think Barrett is pretty tailor made to play in New York. He’s the kind of guy who wants the spotlight on him, but doesn’t shrink from it emotionally or mentally. His game might not always live up to it right now — as we saw a few times this season when he tried to close out games — but he always wants the ball with the chance to win and just seconds left on the clock. And those around him say he is motivated by his failures when they happen, driving him to get better.
 

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My bet is that New York embraces Barrett if he ends up there and the team continues with its long-term rebuild. Having said that, I do think there’s a real chance the Knicks look into moving this pick if they end up acquiring both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, looking at it as a potentially terrific tool to improve and gain more experience in order to become an instant contender. I’ve already mentioned the Davis possibility, but I’d also again point out the Beal possibility in addition to maybe even a couple of other stars.

Both Memphis and Boston win as the Grizzlies move up and keep their pick

The Grizzlies were another team that got a big jump start to their rebuild tonight, moving up to No. 2, and potentially getting the opportunity to replace Mike Conley long-term with Murray State point guard Ja Morant. Morant is considered the second-best prospect in the draft league-wide, and will complement the Grizzlies selection of Jaren Jackson Jr. perfectly if that’s the route they decide to go. Jackson will do a great job as a pick-and-pop weapon for Morant to play with, and will help to insulate the defensive end for Morant as he puts on more weight. The team would do well to sign some shooters this offseason to space the floor for Morant and Jackson’s two-man game (Terrance Ross sticks out to me as a potential mid-level exception player), but there is a lot to be happy about. For more on Morant, here’s an exclusive interview and breakdown of his game from me earlier this season.

In that vein, it’s worth noting that things went according to plan for both the Grizzlies and Celtics, each of whom had a strong interest in this selection because of the 2015 Jeff Green deal that saw a future Memphis first-round pick be dealt to Boston. The protections are that it would have transferred if it was outside of the top-eight this season, outside of the top-six next season, or it’s unprotected in 2021. For Memphis, the preferred list of outcomes was to have it move up, or to lose it to the Celtics this year, given the draft’s strength in the top three and its complete uncertainty in the middle of this draft’s lottery. They did not want to keep this pick and have it land at No. 8, which was their second-most likely outcome at 31.2 percent.

For the Celtics, this outcome is great. They wanted the Grizzlies to keep the pick, so as to keep the future asset value for a potential trade. What this pick could be is equally as enticing as what it could not be when you’re using it as an asset in a deal. As mentioned above, a pick that could potentially be in the top-five in what figures to be a stacked 2021 draft class is probably more valuable to New Orleans in an Anthony Davis deal than this year’s No. 9 pick.

All around, a positive result.

The Mavericks first-round pick officially transfers to Atlanta

Last season, Atlanta moved the No. 3 pick to Dallas for the No. 5 pick and a 2019 first rounder that was top-five protected. The goal? To get proper value for the players each organization was targeting. The Mavericks knew they needed to move up from No. 5 to get Luka Doncic, while the Hawks knew that they could acquire an additional asset while still getting the player they wanted in Trae Young. Basically, this is a trade that has worked out well for everyone involved. Everyone logically assessed the situation well, and the players were properly evaluated. The Hawks are happy to have Young and the extra 2019 first, and the Mavericks are ecstatic to build around Doncic.

Now, we know the official damage of said pick. The Mavericks will give Atlanta the No. 10 pick this season in addition to Young for Doncic. Atlanta’s side of this deal is easier to understand. They bet on and expected to get a mid-to-late lottery pick when they made the deal with Dallas last year, and that win has come to fruition. In the grand scheme of things, I think this is a better result for Atlanta than the potential of extending this obligation out for another year. The goal for the Hawks should be to try and create a core of players around the same age of Trae Young and John Collins who can grow and develop together. Getting two lottery picks this season is a going to allow Atlanta to secure two solid prospects with team control, get them into the system they want to run quicker, and potentially turn around their fortunes a bit faster. The night wasn’t a home run for the Hawks, given that their own pick fell from No. 5 to No. 8. But it was overall a positive outcome, I think.

For Dallas, the question of whether or not they actually should have wanted this pick to transfer this year is complicated. On one hand, it represented a great opportunity for the Mavericks to acquire another young asset to develop around. Potentially, it could even be their last chance in the lottery if this season’s Kristaps Porzingis deal pays off in the way they’re hoping. Getting another player in the same age range as those two would have been useful — even if Dallas’ draft track record has been a bit spotty over the years.

However, because of the Porzingis deal, there are other factors to consider. Dallas owes the Knicks two future first-round picks as its draft pick compensation in the Porzingis trade. By converting this pick to Atlanta now, the Mavericks are slated to send these picks off in 2021 and 2023 now. As just stated, the Mavericks are assuming that they have their two stars of the future in Doncic and Porzingis, a reasonable assumption given the way each of the European stars have started their careers. The 2021 and 2023 picks should, if things hold and they handle their business around their two building blocks, be somewhere in the latter half of the first round. Additionally, the faster the team gets these obligations out of the way, the further flexibility they have down the road with further trade scenarios to try and build around Doncic and Porzingis when they’re closer to their primes. And given that 2020 draft doesn’t look like a markedly better draft than the 2019 iteration, I’m not entirely convinced there is a difference in value between whether or not the Mavericks would rather have this year’s pick, or next year’s.

Overall, I think I actually do like this outcome better for Dallas to get the obligation out of the way.

The end of the Sacramento/Boston/Philadelphia triangle of pick swaps

Ah, yes. The final remnants of one of the weirdest, most harmful trades in NBA history.

Sacramento generally has things turned around under general manager Vlade Divac — at least in comparison to where things have been since Divac suited up for the Kings in the early 2000s. But that wasn’t the case back in 2015. In an effort to try and fast-track a rebuild by gaining cap space to sign free agents to pair with DeMarcus Cousins, Divac decided to deal the contracts for Nik Stauskas, Carl Landry, and Jason Thompson (totaling about $15.5 million on a salary cap that, at the time, was only $70 million) for two stash players with very little chance of coming over to the NBA. To entice Philadelphia to take them, they offered potential first-round pick swaps in 2016 and 2017, in addition to a top-10 protected first round pick in 2018 that would become an unprotected 2019 first round pick if it didn’t convey.

As we know, history was not kind to the Kings in the intervening years. The picks did swap. Sacramento was then dreadful in 2017-18 and ended up selected second overall in the 2018 draft, thus making the 2019 pick unprotected. Realistically, the Kings traded the difference in value from No. 3 down to No. 5 in the 2017 draft, and an unprotected 2019 first round pick for one year of Rajon Rondo, four years of Kosta Koufos, one year of Marco Belinelli, and Malachi Richardson after Belinelli was dealt to Charlotte. To say that none of those players helped turn the Kings around would be an understatement.

But here’s the thing: look at the end result for Philadelphia.

Because the picks swapped (and because Sam Hinkie, first of his name, hoarder of draft picks, protector of assets, negotiator of trades, and father of the 76ers had been forced out as general manager), the 76ers had the ammo to move up from No. 3 to No. 1 in the 2017 NBA Draft, where the Celtics were (unknown, at the time) targeting Jayson Tatum. The Celtics acquired this pick in June 2017, when they sent the No. 1 overall pick in 2017 to Philadelphia for that No. 3 overall pick and the future Kings’ first rounder (No. 1 overall protected in 2019). The Celtics picked Tatum, and the 76ers got the lead guard they needed for their future in … Markelle Fultz.
 

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Unfortunately, Fultz’ issues have been well-chronicled and it led to his eventual trade this past deadline for Jonathon Simmons and an Oklahoma City first-round pick that seems likely to turn into two second rounders in 2022 and 2023. But think about this from Philadelphia’s perspective for a second. Now that we have the full context, and know that the No. 1 pick in 2019 isn’t coming, it’s worth asking this seemingly absurd question:

Would the 76ers be much better off right now if they hadn’t made what, at the time, seemed to be an incredibly obvious decision to take on Landry, Thompson and Stauskas’ salary to get multiple extremely valuable assets?

I think the answer is, weirdly, yes. If they didn’t get the pick swap up to No. 3 in 2017 and the additional Kings first-round pick, they would not have been able to make the move up to No. 1 to trade with the Celtics (a source close to the situation believed that the Sixers would not have had the assets to move up from No. 5 to No. 1 with only the Lakers pick the following year that turned into Mikal Bridges as ammunition for a deal).

If they end up sticking at No. 5, the pick that ended up being swapped to the Kings was De’Aaron Fox. Even if the Sixers wouldn’t have taken him, it could have been Jonathan Isaac, Lauri Markkanen, or Dennis Smith. Those players all would have helped the 76ers much more than Fultz in their future maneuvering to end up where they are today. Maybe they would have been able to keep Landry Shamet out of the Tobias Harris deal, or keep another first-round pick by trading that player. Maybe it’s Fox, and things are just markedly different, and the Harris deal doesn’t happen at all. Or, maybe everything else stays the same, they trade for Butler and Harris anyway, and roll out hilariously awesome lineups of Fox, Butler, Harris, Ben Simmons, and Joel Embiid? Or if the Harris deal doesn’t happen, it’s J.J. Redikk included in the lineup in his place.

Heck, the Celtics side of the deal didn’t even end up in the place that they expected (even if they’ve certainly come out as the winner). While Tatum has exceeded the expectations put on him in his first two years and thus has made the Celtics happy with the end result, the Kings pick falling all the way to No. 14 was, unquestionably, not an anticipated outcome for them. They thought that they would be getting another pick somewhere in the top-10, with potential for it to be even in at the highest levels of the lottery. But because the Kings hit on Fox in the draft and because Buddy Hield has become the best part of the Cousins trade the Kings eventually had to make because their foray into free agency in 2015 ended so poorly, the team won 39 games and will send a draft pick that, in the grand scheme of things, really isn’t a disastrous price.

The lesson here? The NBA is just the dumbest, most unpredictable thing in the world. The Kings made the terrible move, it resulted in them potentially moving on from Cousins faster than if the moves had been successful, and now they’re in a better position than they would have been otherwise. The 76ers unquestionably made the right move by acquiring two pick swaps and a future first-round pick for the price of acquiring Landry, Thompson and Stauskas. They did everything right. The 76ers are also in a worse position now in part because they made the right move. Hot take: being an NBA general manager is hard.

The NBA gets what it wanted through lottery reform, and we should adjust our expectations accordingly

Finally, let’s finish on the NBA itself. When the league decided to flatten the lottery odds, the goal was simple: curb the disaster-level, hideous tanking that plagues the league throughout the months of March and April as organizations that are out of the playoffs run out rosters often commensurate with their G League counterparts. On a personal level, I disagree with the idea of it. I would prefer the worst teams get a chance at the best talent, and thus create a parity-driven league. In my opinion, that is what is best for business in the draft model, given that superteams tend not to necessarily be built through the draft in this modern era.

But more than that, I believe this goal of reducing tanking will be a failure while just randomizing where stars get dispersed league-wide while potentially decreasing that parity in the process.

The incentives of getting a player like Zion Williamson will always be far too great, especially when a team is out of the playoff picture anyway. We saw that in the way that fans melted down like a waterfall of bad news as Mark Tatum showed the cards with team logos to signify where each would be selecting. In a sport where one singular player can so drastically alter an organization’s fortunes, teams will always want the best chance to acquire said player. Right now, even after changing the odds, the best opportunity will always come in the draft if your team is located outside of New York, Los Angeles, Miami, or one of the other major cities across the NBA. Additionally, part of the goal behind tanking isn’t just to end up with the best odds at No. 1; it’s to assure yourself as great an opportunity as possible at acquiring a game-changing type of talent. Even though the odds have flattened, teams still can’t fall more than four spots on lottery night. That is still a valuable outcome in most drafts.

And yet, lottery reform is here to stay. So we should make peace with what it is, and I think the best way to go about that would be to relax the hysteria around the team that ends up with the best odds at No. 1. It seems like, for instance, Knicks fans (among others) had outsized hopes this year given that they finished with the worst record in the NBA. For god’s sake, betting markets took so many bets on the Knicks’ winning their lottery that the line fell down to +350 (in other words, you win 350 dollars if you bet 100 dollars) when the odds of their draft pick were about +614 (win 614 if you bet 100 dollars). That’s literally throwing money down the toilet, taking a dump on it, and then flushing it. Was it the media’s fault for not further informing Knicks’ fans about what 14 percent actually looks like? Was it just blind fandom to the point that they didn’t care about losing the extra +364 odds? To quote Toby Flenderson, was it the public school system’s fault for failing so many so badly?

Heck, New York’s most likely single pick outcome, by far, was ending up at No. 5, where they had a 47 percent chance to fall. Fans for the Knicks weren’t alone, though. The Cavaliers theoretically “fell” three spots to No. 5. However, No. 5 was always the most likely spot for them based off of the percentages, with a 27.8 percent chance of ending up there. The same can be said of Phoenix ending up at No. 6, as they had a 26 percent chance to fall there.

If this lottery’s madness did one thing, hopefully it teaches everyone that we shouldn’t start printing the jerseys before the lottery balls fall into place.
 

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It’s taken some time, but Joey Gatewood is finding his voice at Auburn.

Quarterbacks have a reputation of being the alpha dog of the team. They’re the vocal leaders, the ones either rallying the troops or ruffling the feathers when things aren’t going the team’s way. They’re the faces of the team, the ones getting all the TV interviews and news conference appearances.

Some quarterbacks are born with that voice. They have the personality traits to embrace the metaphorical microphone that’s always attached to them on or off the field.

Others have to develop it, or at least adapt their more reserved natures to what’s constantly being asked of the position.

That’s Gatewood.

“Joey’s an awesome kid,” offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham said. “He’s quiet, so by nature, he doesn’t feel confident. That doesn’t mean he’s not confident, just the perception of him is going to be not confident.”

No other position in football demands confidence more than quarterback. An uncertain signal caller is the last person you want leading your offense. Shakiness is often met with sloppiness.

That’s why the biggest takeaway from Gatewood this spring had nothing to do with his Cam Newton-like size, impressive running ability or rocket-launching arm.

Those things were mentioned, but they were always laced together in conversation by Gatewood’s improved self-belief.

“He’s a different quarterback than he was at this time last year,” Gus Malzahn said. “He does have more confidence. He has really been focused and really desperate to win the job.”

“You can really tell like he’s stepping into the role of becoming a potential big-time player,” receiver Seth Williams said. “From Joey last year to Joey this year, you can see his confidence has improved a lot.”

“Joey’s going to be real special, man,” running back Kam Martin said. “He wants to get better, man. He wants you to strain him and he wants to be coached. … From whenever we came back from the break from the bowl game, Joey grew. He came in with a different mindset.”

That mindset grew out of an impressive amount of patience. Last spring, Gatewood arrived at Auburn as an early enrollee. He committed to the Tigers when he was a sophomore in high school. Gatewood — and Auburn fans — had waited three years to see him finally get on the field.

“When we recruited him, we really felt like he was talented,” Malzahn said. “He was a true freshman, his head was spinning, and we asked a lot of him because (Jarrett) Stidham (was injured).”

But after spring practices, the former top-50 overall recruit didn’t get much of a chance to play in his first season. Auburn had Stidham as a returning starter and Malik Willis as a returning backup. A thumb injury in the fall kept him from dressing in several early-season games.

And even when Auburn’s offense struggled during the 2018 season and plenty of fans vocalized their desire to see the 6-foot-5 Florida native at least get a chance to help turn things around, Gatewood stayed on the sidelines. He received only a handful of snaps in the fourth quarter of a Music City Bowl beatdown against Purdue.

Those on the outside might have expected that first year at Auburn to be a frustrating time for Gatewood. But those close to him say he saw things differently.

“I think it was the best thing that could have happened to him,” Denny Thompson, Gatewood’s private quarterback coach, told The Athletic. “Like, he needed to mature a little bit. … I don’t think he got down at all. I don’t think it was one of those situations. He’s a competitor, but I think you certainly kind of understood going in what the deal was.”
 

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Gatewood took that first fall on the Plains to absorb what was going on around him. Stidham most likely wouldn’t be there in a year, so he sat back and learned. The young quarterback in the meeting rooms wasn’t quiet because of detachment — he was taking it all in.

Meanwhile, the work to improve Gatewood’s mechanics was already underway. Thompson admits that, selfishly, he was glad one of his top pupils didn’t get to play much in his first season of college football.

“It let him get his feet underneath him, let him understand some of the stuff that he and I have been talking about the last couple years,” Thompson said. “I’d say, ‘Joey, we’ve got to get this fixed, because athletically in the SEC, you’re not going to be able to just get away with this like you did in high school.’”

One of the biggest points of emphasis was his literal feet, and it didn’t have anything to do with his running ability. As a tall and physically strong quarterback, Gatewood sometimes didn’t throw with the right base under him, trusting his arm strength alone to get the ball to where it needed to be.

And when Dillingham inherited Gatewood, that work continued.

“We lined up and we took drops all spring,” Dillingham said. “Drops, drops, drops. You’re going to look at it and say, ‘Man, y’all didn’t get better.’ But football, it’s a pretty simple game when you break it down, and that’s where everything starts, is at the feet of the quarterback. So we really focused on the base of our quarterbacks and making sure they’re driving off their foot and making sure they’re having a base in their drops.”

Gatewood’s rebuilt mechanics came at an ideal time. Stidham moved on to the NFL after the 2018 season, and a wide-open competition to replace him was underway.

After playing only in garbage time of just one game in his redshirt season, Gatewood had just as good of a chance at the starting job as the experienced No. 2 Willis, new five-star freshman Bo Nix or transitioning former minor-league baseball player Cord Sandberg.

“When you have a high-profile guy established like Jarrett and he moves on, I think a lot of times it gives people new life,” Malzahn said. “You’ve seen that with Joey. He’s competing hard for the starting job. His approach has been completely different than it was last year.”

That approach included more speaking up from the introverted Gatewood, and who better to teach him that lesson than the loud and outgoing Dillingham?

“If you’re going to be a quarterback in the SEC, you’re the face of the program,” Dillingham said. “You’ve got to be assertive. You can’t be a passive person. You have to be your personality, but there are times where you’re going to have to learn how to be aggressive or how to clap loud or how to say the cadence loud or how to communicate loud, how to take command.

“You don’t have to be that all the time, but I think the biggest thing with Joey was taking him out of that comfort zone of — you’re not a freshman anymore. Jarrett Stidham is not here anymore. There is nobody you’re looking at and saying, ‘Hey, is it my turn to talk?’ It is your turn. It is your time. Take it.”

Of course, it’s easier for a quarterback to take charge and lead whenever he’s not competing against three others at the same time.

That’s why Malzahn and Dillingham felt it was important for Auburn to cut the quarterback competition in half entering the summer months. And now the two potential leaders of the offense are two of the youngest ones on the team — Gatewood and Nix.

And Gatewood’s leadership style inside the Auburn offense won’t be the type A, in-your-face approach.

“He’s very much a relationship guy,” Thompson said. “If you talk to people in the Auburn locker room, and you talk to Auburn coaches, I think they’ll all tell you the same thing — he’s fun to be around, he’s got an amazing heart, and the kid will do anything in the world for you.

“And if we’re really looking for leadership these days, I mean, that’s the stuff that can’t be faked.”

The last few months have molded Gatewood into a new quarterback, a new leader and a new voice.

Down in Florida, Thompson even noticed the changes when Gatewood was back home for a week of throwing sessions. Mechanics looked different. Workouts felt different. Conversations with him sounded different.

Gatewood had the look of someone who knew he had a great chance at becoming the next starting quarterback at Auburn.

“That confidence just kind of blossomed,” Thompson said. “He’s always been confident, but this has blossomed into, like, a relatable confidence where he doesn’t have to tell you he’s confident. You can just see that, and you can sense that. He’s matured into somebody who’s going to be easy to follow.”

(Top photo: Todd Van Emst / Auburn Athletics)
 
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