Damn, breh...
And the Census was this year.
You're right: Karl Rove laid out the entire plan in great specificity in his March 2010 Wall Street Journal piece. He made it very clear that when you draw the lines, you make the rules--and in flashing neon lights made clear that the Republicans intended to do exactly that. The Democrats not only lacked the imagination or vision to come up with a plan like this, but they failed to defend against it even when the playbook was published in one of the biggest newspapers in the country. Jankowski told me he couldn't believe that he never ran into Democratic groups spending money in these states that fall. Steve Israel, who took over the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee after the 2010 debacle, told me the Democrats "whistled past the graveyard." It was severe political malpractice, and it had the consequence of handcuffing Obama's agenda in Congress.
The political "smart set" in the media and the capital, however, has long resisted the idea that gerrymandering matters. They see it as part of the game. They look for a counterintuitive way to explain it, like the "Big Sort" theory that like-minded people choose to live around like-minded people. The Republicans knew better--they knew that drawing the lines meant making the rules. They knew that staring down a demographic barrel, they had to change the rules if they wanted to win. And the amount of energy and money the brightest minds in the party spent on this in 2010 and then again drawing the lines in 2011 should help put the "Big Sort" theory to bed. We have been
sorted.
The smart set that denies this also doesn't understand how profoundly the technology changed between 2000 and 2010, let alone between 1990 and 2010. In 1990 and even in 2000, the computers and the data sets were primitive. In some cases, they were still laying out actual parchment maps and using markers. By 2010, programs like Maptitude--and all of the public data sets that are available, as well as private data sets that the parties can purchase and add on to Maptitude--made it as easy as clicking a mouse to shift a line one block in any direction. And the data was so good, and our partisanship had hardened in such a way as to make it pretty clear how individual blocks vote, that you could see how shifting the lines would likely shift the results. As a result, you can draw districts so precisely that they might even look like competitive 51-49 districts, but they can still be reliable partisan performers. It is a completely different world. The Republicans know this. The Democrats and the media are still catching up.
This is how the GOP rigged Congress: The secret plan that handcuffed Obama's presidency, but backfired in Donald Trump