LeanTossup Ratings: A More Reserved Approach
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Kyle Hutton | May 14, 2020 |
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Kyle’s May 2020 Predictions for November, Biden v Trump
It’s the year 2016. We’re still several months out from a major and consequential national election, and the primaries of the two major parties are on-going but very much locked in. Up against each other are two of the weakest candidates to ever be put forward, each with a deficit of approval baked (or burnt) in by virtue of the deep partisanship that has gripped the nation from coast to coast. Allegations of sexual misconduct, open corporate sycophancy, and a creeping sense of dread and ennui have demoralized vast swaths of the electorate needed to push the Democrats over the top, while the vitriolic, discriminatory, and slowly degenerating base of white working class voters is keeping the Republicans afloat, but just barely. Polls are pointing toward a solid win for the former – but who’s to say such polling is even able to properly capture the sour mood of America? The election is anyone’s to win now, if they even want it.
Wait – did I say 2016? It’s actually 2020. Time is a flat circle and the simulation is broken.
But despite my dour outlook on the state of the United States, there are very key differences between now and four years ago that point toward a still narrow but ever-increasing lead for the Democratic candidate, former Vice President Joe Biden. To start, we’ve already seen a national election where the Democrats won enough votes in enough states to comfortably win the Electoral College. In 2018, the Democrats won 53%-45% in the national House vote, and if those votes were reflected by the EC, would have won 310-228. Granted we’re missing a key ingredient – the personal appeal of Donald Trump being on the ballot – but we can point to growing and consistent trends for the Democrats that allow Biden to start ahead of the incumbent as we tumble toward November.
It’s on these trends that I based my predictions for the EC. The key lessons learned are the Democrat’s improved operations to turnout minority voters (specifically African Americans), and the national trend of college-educated whites and women toward the Dems; and based on current polling, I’ve taken Biden’s greater strength among older age demographics and to a lesser extent whites in general.
On the flip side, it’s important to remember Trump has his own strength, and Biden’s campaign is increasingly showing weaknesses similar to Hillary Clinton in 2016, especially on the organization front. This goes to temper some of the wilder swings that my colleagues on LeanTossup believe we may be in for, at least in my mind.
I’ve set up my predictions in four tiers on both sides, and we’ll go through them quickly. Each state in a tier is on a similar level to the others – so, for example, if New Hampshire (Likely) is an upset for the GOP, I would expect similar upsets in other Likely D states like Nevada and Minnesota. Let’s dive in!
Safe Dem – HI, WA, OR, CA, CO, NM, IL, VA, MA, DC, DE, NJ, NY, VT, MA, CT, RI ME-AL, ME-1
Surprising to some potentially, I moved Colorado and Virginia into the ‘Safe’ category due to what are some fairly undeniable trends in the Democrat’s direction. The close-ish races seen in 2016 won’t be repeated, as I expect both states to have margins of near D+10 or more (similar to current polling), only helped along by the easily flipped Senate race in CO and competitive House races in VA this year.
Likely Dem – NV, MN, MI, NH
All four states have shown moderate leads for Biden since before the COVID-19 pandemic started and have stayed so. Michigan in particular is good news for Biden, as it seems the state is very much ready to come home, once again helped by a Senate race this year. On the other hand, Biden hasn’t done as well on average in Nevada polling, potentially due to the perceived weakness among Hispanic voters during the primary, while New Hampshire and Minnesota remain question marks due to their close 2016 races and general swingy trends.
Leaning Dem – WI, PA
Wisconsin and Pennsylvania remain Biden’s best chance to secure a win this November. The two states, dominated as they are by white working class swing voters that Trump has that special appeal to, have shown plenty of trendlines back towards being good blue states. 2018 in particular showed how good the margins can be if Democrats put in actual operations. Yet there is a greater chance for these two states to stay with Trump than I believe most suspect, and the narrow – though still good – polling for Biden only backs that assumption up, particularly in Wisconsin’s case.
Tossups – AZ, NE-2, NC, FL
While it’s a joke that ‘Arizona is in play’, this year could very well be when it finally goes blue. With a competitive Senate race and strong numbers in 2018 and good polling, Arizona could easily fall, all but securing Biden an EC win; however, he doesn’t need it, and it wouldn’t at all surprise me if Trump carried the state narrowly. Turned around, the same is true for North Carolina, Florida, and Nebraska’s 2nd District, where midterm races were competitive and current polling leans towards Biden, both could easily stay red or be the cherries on top for Biden.
Leaning GOP – ME-2
Likely GOP – MT, TX, IA, OH, GA
Unfortunately, I don’t believe this is the year Texas flips blue, nor Georgia. Trump’s fundamentals – head-to-head polling, approval, and demographic trends – are still strong enough to keep them red, but things are bad enough that if Biden has a very good night he could snatch these two low-hanging fruit, alongside the two-time Obama states Ohio and Iowa, as well as the state with the most competitive Senate race (I would say), Montana. Polling is not in favour of that conclusion so far, however.
Safe GOP – AK, ID, UT, WY, ND, SD, NE-AL, NE-1, NE-3, KS, OK, MO, AR, LA, MS, IN, KY, TN, AL, WV, SC
Not much to say about this group save for Utah – despite the hype over Mormon dislike of Trump that manifested in Evan McMuffin’s strong third-party result in 2016, this isn’t a state likely to swing to Joe Biden unless the Quorum President himself tells everyone in Utah County to stay home election day.
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