Based on what? What actual reading and comprehension of the CBA and it’s mechanics have proven this or even insinuate this to be true? Teams that have to hit the salary floor will continue to have to hit that floor every year which means more people getting paid as contracts expire …do you think contracts have no end date?
The teams that are below the salary floor are hitting it this summer so they won’t get penalized and they’re giving players multi year contracts. There won’t be nearly as many (if any) teams way below the salary floor next year like there are this year. Add to that the fact that teams approaching or above the 2nd apron next year won’t be able to sign role players to big deals next year and they’ll be trading away players to teams with space (with picks attached, absorbing more cap space from low payroll teams) to get below 2nd aprons and stars (eg Jayson Tatum) will be eligible for larger raises under the new CBA, there won’t be as much money for role players going forward.
If Celtics give Jaylen the Supermax extension this summer and Tatum gets Supermax extension next summer, they’ll only have about 70 million to spend on the rest of the team to stay below 2nd apron. To make space, they could trade high earners like Brogdon to teams with cap space with picks attached. Either way, there will be less money for role players.