Heat need to find a suitable backup for Dwyane Wade
Personnel needs:
After revamping his long-term starting lineup on the fly last season, Heat architect Pat Riley was in reaction mode when it came to filling out the rest of his depth chart. That was dictated by the season-ending medical condition of
Chris Bosh and the on-and-off availability of
Dwyane Wade. While the names on Miami's season-ending roster still look good on the surface, the scramble mode that last season's non-playoff team finished with was instructive. A starting five of
Hassan Whiteside,
Goran Dragic, Wade,
Luol Dengand Bosh looks like a contender for a power seed, at least in the East. But the collective frailty of that quintet, especially on the wing, screams for real answers for the second unit and beyond. Miami ended the season with six guards, most of whom are more 1s than 2s, giving Wade no obvious backup. But Riley and Erik Spoelstra need more than a caddie for the face of their franchise, they need an offensively capable 2-man who can truly impact the second unit, fill in when Wade must rest his knees, and generally help keep the veteran's minutes down.
Major need: Really, Miami's primary need is less about personnel and more about revising its approach in the post-LeBron era (
and health). Last season, Spoelstra deployed his pressure defense in a similar fashion to the season before, when James was still around. The Heat were in the top 10 in forcing turnovers, bottom 10 in defensive rebounding and had a repeated tendency to give up too many 3s. Given the emergence of Whiteside in the middle, it stands to reason that Miami may need to shift to a more balanced approach. That in itself could help the defensive rebounding numbers. Solving the wing-depth issue is the most glaring need for Miami's offseason.
Quiet need: The Heat have a depth chart full of bigs with familiar names -- Whiteside, Bosh,
Josh McRoberts,
Michael Beasley,
Chris Andersen and
Udonis Haslem. Of those, only Whiteside and Beasley lack a guaranteed deal for next season, and you know Riley is keeping Whiteside around. If Riley finds a solid 2-guard, Miami has enough offense on its second unit without Beasley. Haslem is near the end of the line, if not over it, and McRoberts and Bosh combined to play just 61 games last season. So while there are plenty of names on the depth chart, Miami could use another quality rebounding and rim-protecting big man, the quest for which is an annual summer rite for Riley.
Not a need: As mentioned, the Heat have lots of options at point guard -- including brothers
Goran and
Zoran Dragic,
Mario Chalmers and
Shabazz Napier. The wild card here is Goran Dragic, who can opt out of the last year of his deal. And that last year is slotted for a way-under-market-value $7.5 million, so you know he's hitting free agency. Dragic has stated he wants to stay in Miami, and Riley almost has to spend whatever it takes to keep him. If he stays, the Heat are set at the point. Napier looks like a keeper and Chalmers was a starter for four conference championships. He's also expendable and fairly cheap, so perhaps Riley can find a trade partner to help balance the roster a bit better.
Depth chart
Jobs in jeopardy: Given the price tag that will be involved in keeping Dragic, it will be interesting to see what happens if Deng opts out of his own deal. If he does, that really puts Riley on the spot, as suddenly keeping Deng would be wildly expensive. His backup,
James Ennis, has shown promise but not consistency, and he may not be a starting-caliber wing, a description that may also apply to
Tyler Johnson. Deng had a down season by his standards, but he also led Miami with a plus-3.34 RPM.
Don't mess with it: Bosh has three more years and about $71 million guaranteed left on his deal, making him a true building block regardless of performance. Wade is still Miami's best player on a per-possession basis, but he just wasn't around for enough possessions last season. The numbers Whiteside put up in 48 games last season were something like Roy Hobbs would have reached had he been a basketball player. Even if that stat line is an outlier, Whiteside still looks like an anchor in the middle. And Dragic may be the key to the whole enterprise.
What free agency could solve
If Miami brings everybody back, including Dragic and Deng, the Heat will fly well past the luxury tax line, and possibly over the apron. That would leave the Heat with the smaller midlevel exception. That might be enough to land an offense-minded wing like
Marcus Thornton, but the options will be limited.
How they draft
Where they draft well: If the Heat are passed by anyone on lottery night and bumped down from No. 10, their first-round pick goes to Philadelphia. Otherwise, it will be Miami's highest selection since taking Beasley No. 2 in 2008. Since then, Miami has simply not emphasized the draft. Last year, Riley swapped late first-rounder
P.J. Hairston to bring in Napier. Whether or not that was to please James, it worked out well enough. Napier looks like he can at the very least be a top-quality backup. Miami's best pick ever was Wade at No. 5 in 2003, but when Miami has been good, it's been a product of free-agent spending and trades.
Where they don't draft well: Whether or not they've stayed with Miami, the late first-rounders and second-rounders Riley has tabbed on draft night over the past six years have been an undistinguished group. The most value the Heat have extracted from this period of drafting was from
Norris Cole, the former backup guard now in New Orleans. Riley acquired him on a draft night trade in 2011 for
Bojan Bogdanovic.
Three best fits
Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin (Chad Ford Top Big Board ranking: No. 14): Dekker might not be the ideal offense-creating wing who would back up Wade, but it's not clear Miami can find the right guy for that role at No. 10 without overreaching in terms of draft-slot value. Dekker would certainly help and he serves as a hedge against Deng either leaving as a free agent or staying and breaking down physically. Dekker would likely have a good deal of trade value as well.
Mario Hezonja, SG, Croatia (No. 8): Hezonja has been listed as a "best fit" for enough clubs higher in the lottery than Miami that it's unlikely he'd still be around at No. 10. If he were, however, he's just the kind of player the Heat could use behind Wade.
Myles Turner, PF, Texas (No. 10): Raw, talented and stylistically unique, the shot-blocking, 3-point shooting Turner would have too much talent for Miami to pass up regardless of specific need. He'd be a Bosh-in-waiting, and a potential perfect fit long-term alongside Whiteside.
It's a good draft if ...
What they must accomplish: They keep the pick. Riley has limited options for finding an impact bench player through free agency. His best hope is probably to keep that No. 10 pick and hit a home run with it. You can find a terrific player at that slot. Former No. 10 selections currently in the NBA include
Paul George,
Elfrid Payton,
Brook Lopez,
Joe Johnson,
Jason Terry and
Paul Pierce.
Additional goals: Miami has the No. 40 pick and here might hunt for rebounding help. Among the six players with the highest projected defensive rebound rates in the draft, four might be around at No. 40:
Moussa Diagne,
Alan Williams,
Robert Upshaw (probably will go higher) and
Guillermo Hernangomez.
