Last 18/19 NY Knicks season transmission: "F*** all the haters from you to SAS" See y'all in '20

[MR. Conclusion]

Dolan talking like the dude that gets stripped while celebrating before reaching the endzone.

Just play it cool man.

 

[storyteller]

Nobody posted tonight wtf I’ve never seen this as a regular member of the knicks contingent on the coli.

It was hard to concentrate they were so bad. Mitch was in perpetual foul trouble (13 mins); DSJ had more TO's than Assists which got his minutes cut; Trier was bad for a change; and then Knox and Dot were good but not great. Mudiay was our star and I legit think he's a much more effective player in this system when he plays self-interested ball which is just plain tough to watch and frustrating because he's not effective enough to play greedy.

No Mitch means not much to enjoy.

 

[Kitsch]

Knicks Draft fits: Roster analysis, cap situation and...

Somebody post the article.

 

[storyteller]

Knicks Draft fits: Roster analysis, cap situation and...

Somebody post the article.

Gonna chunk it out bc it's big and yall know I like to clip some out so people have reason to click and read the full piece. Here's a bit about our current prospects.

Spoiler

Roster Analysis
Building blocks: None
This category is reserved for elite-level players who are signed long-term or players on rookie-scale deals who profile as having a better than 50-50 chance to be All-Stars. Think Giannis Antetokounmpo and James Harden on the former for contenders, or Luka Doncic and De’Aaron Fox on the latter for teams in the process of a rebuild.

The Knicks currently don’t have any of those guys, but have multiple avenues this offseason to acquire them.

Good, young players and prospects
Dennis Smith Jr.

I’d still rank Smith Jr. ahead of Knox and Robinson as a prospect, while recognizing that he could be fodder for a trade if the Knicks’ free agency dreams come true. Last season’s No. 9 overall pick, it has been a year of transition for the former NC State point guard. After a tough start to the season while adjusting to playing next to Luka Doncic, I actually really liked the way he played for the Mavericks after returning from a December wrist injury. He showed better defensive effort, and was shooting it well off the catch next to Doncic, who mostly handled initiating the offense.

Now, since being dealt to the Knicks, Smith’s distribution has been the best we’ve seen since entering the NBA. His 2.7 assist-to-turnover ratio in his 14 games in New York is almost double that of his rookie season, and the volume has jumped to 7.5 assists per 36 minutes. You can see how the game has slowed down for him when you watch the tape. He’s no longer aimlessly probing and trying to get to the basket. He’s being more patient and letting things develop around him in the midrange area. If a driving lane closes up, Smith keeps a live dribble and tries to draw defenders toward him instead of barreling head-first into the rim. Additionally, he’s seeing the court better, understanding where help tends to come from in the NBA, and making more cross-court kick-outs when they’re open.

His shooting from 3 and from the line has fallen off pretty substantially. A point guard shooting 28 percent from 3 and 58 percent from the line isn’t going to cut it. Ultimately, Smith’s ability to stick the pull-up jumper consistently will be his swing skill. There’s time for that to develop, but it’s necessary. Smith’s 21 years old, and is taking steps in a positive direction. If the jumper comes around to a reasonable level, an Eric Bledsoe-like career seems like the most likely outcome. The question is whether or not the jumper comes — and whether or not the Knicks want to wait for him to get there.

Kevin Knox

Knox has had the flashy, inefficient type of rookie season that most expected when he declared for the draft last April. The jumper has come and gone at different stretches, but is mechanically sound. Few scouts and executives around the league have doubts that Knox will shoot it at a high level eventually, even if he’s only knocking down 33 percent from 3 right now. He’ll gain strength throughout his lower half, continue to fine-tune his release, and start hitting shots at an above average clip. He’s also thrown down some big dunks out on the break, and is averaging 12 points a night.

The bigger question comes inside the arc. His athleticism plays up in the open floor and in space, where he can gather and really rise above the rim to finish. He’s made 53 percent of his 2-point shots in transition, and gets fouled at a rate on the break that ranks 10th in the NBA. But in confined spaces and in the half-court, Knox still hasn’t figured out how to utilize his length and fluidity. Among the 292 players to take at least 50 shots in the half-court this season, Knox ranks second-to-last finishing at just a 38 percent clip. Given that this has been an issue for Knox going back to high school, it’s something that raises legitimate alarms on his future. Another issue going back to college: his negative assist-to-turnover ratio. Knox is a finisher, not really a playmaker. That’s not to say he can’t be valuable in such a role, but expanding his game beyond scoring is critical if he’s going to contribute to winning teams.

Athletically, the pieces are there for Knox to turn into a terrific player. He’s also one of the youngest players in the NBA, so there is plenty of time. But his inability to finish around the basket holds him back as a scorer, and the rest of his game isn’t all that polished. I’m not convinced that he’s an untouchable piece, and I think it would be reasonable to say he’s been surpassed in the prospect pecking order by…

Mitchell Robinson

Robinson was a big hit for the Knicks in the second round of the 2018 draft. At the very least, he’s shown at this stage he can be an adequate role player for the Knicks — with potential far exceeding that if things break right.

Simply put, Robinson is the kind of center prospect every team is looking for right now: a low-usage, rim-running, above-the-rim-on-both-ends athletic freak. But everything Robinson does on the floor right now is at the extremes — both positively and negatively. No player is blocking more shots per minute than the 7-foot-1 rookie rim protector. He’s an absolute menace for finishers when he rotates over from the weak side because of his timing. His length poses problems out on the perimeter on switches. In terms of overall impact around the basket, offensive players only finish at a 53.5 percent clip when Robinson is the primary defender according to Second Spectrum data. That’s good for 11th among 57 centers who have defended at least 125 such shots this season.

Also, no player who has played at least 800 minutes fouls more than Robinson, and his propensity to try and swat everything places him out of position on the glass regularly. Only Steven Adams (due to the presence of Russell Westbrook) and the Lopez twins (notorious for boxing out to help teammates gather rebounds) average fewer defensive rebounds per minute as centers. Including that trio with Robinson, only the Knicks are worse on the defensive glass when that center is on the floor versus when he’s off of it. So there are also real flaws — as you’d expect for any rookie.

Still, the positives absolutely outweigh the negatives here, and the scouting backs it up. Robinson is smarter in gap defense than what you’d expect for a rookie who sat out the entire 2017-18 season. He understands how to use his length in a way that many young players do not. Robinson’s ability to close ground is special, in large part due to his footwork and innate sense of timing when players are going to pull up. Opposing teams still haven’t quite adjusted to exactly how game-changing that length is, and at some point they will. That’ll reduce the inordinate number of jump-shot blocks he gets. But it’ll still affect the way offensive players attack the Knicks, and provide value.

The extremes aren’t just on defense, either. Robinson is currently tied for seventh in offensive rebounds per 36 minutes, and tied for second-to-last in assists per 36. He’s first in field goal percentage, and 11th-worst in free throw percentage. Among the 82 big men with 50 rolls to the basket this season, Robinson is fifth in finishing efficiency on such shots. He’s a lob threat every time he’s out on the floor because he can get higher than just about everyone else. That ability to get vertical forces defenders onto him before he gets rolling downhill — either via the primary pick-and-roll defender or a tagger. Otherwise, it’s game over and you’ve been dunked on. That opens up space for everyone else on the team. It’s not an accident that despite playing with many different lineups this season, the Knicks are about four points per 100 possessions better offensively when he’s on the floor. Still, he’s not necessarily producing offense at a particularly high rate himself, averaging under 13 points and just one assist per 36 minutes. He’s limited to essentially just catching and finishing within a five-foot semi-circle.

Everything about Robinson is so at the fringes of basketball that it’s hard to figure out where it all goes from here. Most players don’t start with the base of skills Robinson clearly possesses, thus giving the appearance that he will certainly improve upon his weaknesses at a rate commensurate with his age. That’s certainly a possibility, and if that occurs Robinson will be a starting quality center for a while. But it remains an open question if he can expand upon some of the limitations in addition to shoring up the outright weaknesses. Because his game exists at the boundaries of skillsets right now, he’s become one of the most interesting players to track in the entire league over the next few years.

But even if he doesn’t reach that ceiling, the Knicks have a tremendous asset here given that he’s signed to a minimum contract for each of the next three years following this one with a player option on the final year that will allow them to keep his restricted free agency rights or get a fourth cheap year, depending on where he goes from here. He also helps their free agency dreams this summer because it’s easy to see this player type being the kind who fits in nicely with stars.

Frank Ntilikina, Allonzo Trier ($3.6 million team option for 2019-20), Damyean Dotson ($1.6 million salary non-guaranteed for 2019-2020)

I’m going to group these three together, if only because I think their place within the organization is much more uncertain. Ntilikina was always a bit more of a project offensively than what I think most Knicks’ fans (and their front office) expected when he was taken at No. 8 overall on draft night in 2017 (coincidentally, one spot ahead of Smith Jr.). At Strasbourg, he mostly played a limited off-guard role, where he hit his catch-and-shoot 3s at a solid clip (overall, he hit 37.5 percent from 3 in his pre-draft year) and defended at a high level. With the French youth national team, he played as a bigger point guard who could overpower defenders and get to the lane, but who struggled as a pull-up shooter and had about a 1.5-to-1 assist to turnover ratio in his final U18 tournament appearance.

Defensively, the 6-foot-6 guard with a 7-foot wingspan has translated in every way the team could have hoped. With further growth, the 20-year-old could be an All-Defense team type of player due to his versatility. But he hasn’t taken a step forward offensively in Year Two. He’s hitting under 30 percent from 3, under 40 percent from 2, and is turning it over on 16 percent of his possessions. It’s hard to keep someone on the floor when they’re doing that. He’s smart and unselfish in the way that he moves the ball along the perimeter, but he’s not actually making a positive contribution. To me, Ntilikina always profiled best in the Strasbourg role as an off-ball, secondary creator who could knock down catch-and-shoot jumpers while defending. To reach that, though, he needs to start hitting shots. Much like Smith Jr., things really are that simple with Ntilikina. With the Knicks’ future uncertain and something of a crossroads coming for Ntilikina’s development in Year Three, it is unsurprising that the Knicks may look into potential draft day deals involving Ntilikina, according to the New York Post.

Trier was another great find by this front office. He was my No. 2-ranked undrafted free agent behind Kenrich Williams on draft night — both of whom have established themselves as solid role players for their respective teams. The Arizona scorer has slowed down a bit from his torrid start to the season that forced the Knicks into converting his two-way deal ahead of schedule. His one-to-one assist-to-turnover ratio stands out for a perimeter player, and the coaching staff would unquestionably like to see him take a few more 3s given his shooting ability. Still, he’s creative, an efficient shooter, and known around basketball circles as a remarkably hard worker. They’d certainly prefer to keep him around long-term, but his $3.6 million team option has to be decided upon by June 20, meaning he could end up being something of a cap casualty as the Knicks chase bigger fish.

On the other side, Dotson has a $1.6 million non-guaranteed deal that I think the Knicks are more likely to keep around on the books during free agency. It only eats about $800,000 into their additional cap space given that they’d still be responsible for a roster hold if they were to cut him, and the guarantee date is not until July 15, which should give the team some time to get its affairs in order. Dotson has emerged as an interesting role player for the Knicks due to his ability to take and make 3s on the move — he’s hitting 38 percent from distance on over 200 attempts — and play stout defense on the wing. That’s the kind of role player shooter who theoretically fits well with a roster full of stars. Because of his contract situation and flexibility, I think he’s the guy most likely to stick around of this trio.

 

[storyteller]

Continued...

Bit about whether the Knicks are liable to trade the pick and then the team specific big board.

Spoiler

Trade Possibility? Yes

Any time a team can shift from rebuilding to contender with the snap of their fingers like the Knicks could this summer, I think it’s worth exploring the possibility of them moving their draft picks. And indeed, there is one scenario worth exploring if they end up getting the No. 1 overall pick.

There is no better singular asset out on the marketplace for the Pelicans in an Anthony Davis deal than the No. 1 overall pick. Zion Williamson is, in my opinion, the best prospect to enter the draft since Anthony Davis (assuming his medical checks come out positively). Additionally, because of the intense interest in his game and how it translates, Williamson will be one of the biggest stories in the NBA next season, regardless of marketplace. For the Pelicans, Williamson would be the kind of marketing boon they need, and the kind of prospect worth building around.

And if you’re the Knicks, imagine having the ability to get Davis and then, fairly easily, open up two max cap spots next to him to try and lure in free agents. I think it would be hard to come up with a more desirable situation than playing in Madison Square Garden, next to Davis, while also getting to pick another all-star teammate to run with. Despite the incredible value of Williamson, I think that’s a worthwhile move for the Knicks, assuming they can work back channels and get as much assurance as possible on their free agency hopes.

Of course, though, this dream requires the Knicks to end up at No. 1 overall, something that is a 14 percent chance given the new lottery reform. If they don’t get No. 1, is it possible an offer of Knox, Robinson, Ntilikina, and No. 2 or 3 gets a deal done? Maybe. Perhaps that’s competitive, if the Pelicans value R.J. Barrett or Ja Morant highly and the Celtics don’t get involved. Anything beyond No. 3, it’s hard to see the Knicks being in the mix. It goes without saying this lottery is incredibly important for the Knicks, but it’s as much for their trade prospects as it is for the pick itself.


Team Specific Big Board
Given that the possibility exists for the Knicks to fall all the way down to No. 5 (unlikely as it is), let’s go with a five-person board. Given that the Knicks have a remarkable amount of uncertainty on the roster, I think a best player available approach mostly works for them.

1. Zion Williamson, Duke

Williamson should be the top player on not just the Knicks’ board, but everyone’s board. For a more in-depth breakdown of his game, you can read here.

He fits equally as well with Durant and Irving as he does in between Knox and Robinson. Next to Knox, his elite athleticism and defensive reaction time would fit well next to Knox’s ability to hit shots. Putting their athleticism out on the wings in transition with Smith Jr. would be really interesting, if the Knicks strike out in free agency this summer for whatever reason. If the Knicks do end up with, let’s just speculate, Durant, it’s hard to imagine a better fit. Williamson’s incredible athleticism and motor would pair perfectly with Durant’s length on the defensive end and allow the Knicks the flexibility to play big or small. Offensively, Durant’s incredible shot-making ability would help insulate Williamson as he learned to knock down shots. Basically, unless the Knicks are getting Davis for him, they should be ecstatic to end up with Williamson at No. 1.

2. R.J. Barrett, Duke

Barrett has established himself as the clear No. 2 player on my board, and he’d be a strong selection here for the Knicks. For more information on his game, here’s a recent breakdown.

His professional demeanor would fit well in New York. He wouldn’t be bothered by the bright lights. From a production standpoint, there is some concern about inefficiency, but I think those questions have been slightly overblown as long as you believe Barrett can develop a jump shot. So far this year, Barrett is in the 76th percentile as a shooter off the dribble, but only the 37th as a shooter off the catch — in large part due to a weird statistical thing where Barrett is hitting only 27 percent of his open shots. Given his reputation as an incredibly hard worker off the floor, look for that to improve as he hits the NBA. That would be a critical component to his fit with Smith Jr., but pairing him with Irving and Durant would give him more time.

Additionally, I would not look at Barrett as anything resembling Andrew Wiggins, a comparison that has foolishly been made at times. At times, Wiggins disappeared from games at Kansas. Simply put, that never happens with Barrett at Duke, and the production shows. He’s had at least 13 points in every game, and at least 19 in 25 of 30. At times, he gets selfish, and that could rub teammates in the NBA the wrong way if he doesn’t fix it. He’d fit a Knicks team well that needs a good, starting-quality 2-guard. Barrett has all-star upside.

3. Ja Morant, Murray State

4. De’Andre Hunter, Virginia;

5. Cameron Reddish, Duke

This is where things get tricky. Without concrete information on free agency, I’ve grouped this trio of players together because the overall direction of the organization will inform the selection. If the Knicks end up at No. 3 and don’t move it for a star, what they do with this pick could tell us a bit about their confidence level in landing one of Irving or Walker in free agency. Or, simply put, it could mean they don’t see a massive difference in Morant and Smith Jr.

Comparing the two as prospects is a fascinating exercise. Both high-level athletes with some turnover and shooting questions. Ultimately, while Smith has improved his distribution with the Knicks, Morant is an elite level passer due to his incredible floor vision and ability to dish directly off of a live dribble. That’s what separates the two in my mind, and makes Morant the better prospect with more star power. But I don’t think it’s necessarily by leaps and bounds, either.

Morant is the end of a tier for me, and clearly the prospect I feel has the most star power beyond the top two. For a Knicks team that desperately needs building blocks, I look at him as the kind of player who has the upside to become that. If they don’t feel great about getting one of Irving or Walker, I would take Morant, then look to move Smith Jr.

If they do feel like they are getting Irving or Walker, they probably should look more for a wing. If they’re getting Irving, it seems more likely than not another star would join him — thus creating a situation where the Knicks are looking to contend sooner rather than later. If that’s the case, I would take the more proven commodity in Hunter. He’s ready to step in immediately and play minutes for a good team due to his high-level defensive ability and proficiency on offense. He can legitimately guard 1 through 5 at the college level, and is the kind of switchable, versatile defensive player that NBA teams want at 6-8 with a 7-2 wingspan. He’s also hit 48.6 percent of his 3s on 70 attempts this season, and has hit 44 percent overall on 125 attempts in his career. There’s work to do for him as a shooter, but he has potential to reach a high level there due to his work ethic. His upside is that of a high-level NBA starter. He’s probably not an all-star, but he’ll help you win games.

If the team feels good about signing free agents, but not quite moving into title contention mode immediately (think signing Butler and Walker), Reddish makes sense as a higher-upside player that is a bit further away from helping an elite team. Reddish will become a good shooter, and he can handle the ball well at 6-foot-8. Think of him kind of like Knox, except with more ball skill and better shooting ability. Pairing the two players in the frontcourt long-term would be interesting, especially if the Knicks re-shape their backcourt this summer in the manner mentioned above.

Two critiques I'd throw in here. I don't watch Virginia enough to pump Hunter past Reddish or Culver but I've heard good things. Morant's red flags on defense, with TO's and as a shooter are enough that I'm actually not down to select him with DSJ in hand due to their similarities. I'd either trade to a team that's really in love with him and gives us more draft capital or try to drop a couple of spots to where we'd still have options in Culver, Johnson, maybe Hachimura...but like this article implies, a lot of the decisions will come down to how confident we are about max cats. If we have Kyrie and KD; I'm definitely looking to turn anything 2 down into an extra first AND one of those second tier guys (especially Culver).

 

[ISO]

That Ntlikina section is on point. Y’all complain about dudes playing time when he shoots under 40% from 2, under 30% from 3, turns it over 16% mostly due to predictable telegraphed passes, he swings the ball around aimlessly, hides in corners with no purpose, fouls over 4 times per 36 minutes. Dude sucks.

He is somehow having a worse year than his rookie season

Next season if he even makes it that far on this team will be the last year of his rookie deal. If he’s going to be an effective pro he needs to knock down shots period. He can be a solid role player if he can be an off ball threat, secondary creator, and elite defender.

 

[Derek Lee]

Just noticed that trash new avi.

 

[DPresidential]

Nobody posted tonight wtf I’ve never seen this as a regular member of the knicks contingent on the coli.

The positives of a tank season. /s

 

[Peter Popoff]

I'm not giving up on Knox, Frank on the other hand....

 

[Miles Davis]

That Ntlikina section is on point. Y’all complain about dudes playing time when he shoots under 40% from 2, under 30% from 3, turns it over 16% mostly due to predictable telegraphed passes, he swings the ball around aimlessly, hides in corners with no purpose, fouls over 4 times per 36 minutes. Dude sucks.

He is somehow having a worse year than his rookie season

Next season if he even makes it that far on this team will be the last year of his rookie deal. If he’s going to be an effective pro he needs to knock down shots period. He can be a solid role player if he can be an off ball threat, secondary creator, and elite defender.

You obsessed over Frank, no one barley talking about him yet you’d till bring him up. Probably waking up in cold sweats yelling his name

The positives of a tank season. /s

This went off the rails, it was supposed to be youth focused which would be a natural tank. But these dudes can’t develop for shyt so this is the result, wonder how different this would be with the Westcheater staff leading this team. Just goes to show you can’t control the tank

 

[Peter Popoff]

Yall seriously sleeping on this front office if yall believe Mudiay will be getting minutes next season and saying they're not competent. If you look long and hard at the games, Muds iso offense is the main contributor to Mitch foul trouble and Knox lack of scoring. Guys like Dennis can penetrate the ball and get these guys rolling. Iso only works for other iso players like Trier.

Also Knox got taken out while having 10 pts in 12 min hot.

 

[Peter Popoff]

Also sending guys to the g league would be too blatant. We gotta look like we're trying to win while losing.

 

[Ty-Fife]

Sheesh

My nikka Dot

 

[storyteller]

Sheesh

My nikka Dot

Dot shoulda never lost his starting spot. But it may be true that Fiz was doing all this ish on purpose because we probably coulda been nominally better which would only really mean a 3rd or 4th slot in the draft lottery rather than the top one. That said, even under that premise I'd feel Fiz sacrificed some youth development in the name of the tank and only Zion justifies that. Young guys got minutes but all season long it's been like he mixes and matches players with incompatible skill sets that create problems for everybody...DSJ looked great with proper spacing but we went back to the two interior bigs style anyway and DSJ's performance has dropped off.

 

[Miles Davis]

Yall seriously sleeping on this front office if yall believe Mudiay will be getting minutes next season and saying they're not competent. If you look long and hard at the games, Muds iso offense is the main contributor to Mitch foul trouble and Knox lack of scoring. Guys like Dennis can penetrate the ball and get these guys rolling. Iso only works for other iso players like Trier.

Also Knox got taken out while having 10 pts in 12 min hot.

You on the opposite end of the spectrum, too much confidence. They’ve shown very little to get the benefit of the doubt. Fiz is obsessed with Mudiay. The FO should’ve sent the word down to cut his minutes and give them to people who have a higher chance of being here next year.