We'll see how the next two weeks go, but it will be close. I think the first thing that needs to be established is that it's hard to compare MVP races season to season as there's not a perfect comparison. The second thing that needs to be established is that Lamar Jackson is having a better year this season than last year where he won MVP.
-Lamar has definitely had the better statistical season compared to Josh Allen. That's not even debatable.
-Last year, Lamar didn't win it because of his statistics as the main driving factor. It really came down to where the Ravens finished at the end of the season. People were saying Lamar didn't have any real weapons (I was one of those) and that someone like Purdy and Dak had much better offensive weapons. We can't rewrite history and say that wasn't the main narrative last year. People were saying Lamar should be ahead of Purdy and Dak (before injury) because his offensive supporting cast was worse.
-I think a big difference with the Lamar v.s. Purdy comparison and the Lamar v.s. Allen comparison is that Lamar won the head to head match-up both years, being the lesser statistical QB last year to his counterpart and the superior one this year. If there is something other than Lamar just having insane numbers that will hurt Allen, it will be that match-up, although it was Henry that went off that week.
-There were definitely people that thought Derrick Henry was "washed" or semi-washed, but I think most analysts were more on the train of saying that Henry wouldn't be a big enough upgrade, and not that he was washed. I completely disagreed with that from the beginning. There is no doubt Henry has had a massive impact on Lamar this year. It shouldn't "take away" from what Lamar has done, but that will certainly come into play when talking about "value".
-It's clear that Josh Allen is playing with less talent on the offensive side of the ball and a lot of people had the Bills taking a major step back this season, with many picking them to finish third in the AFC East.
-I really hope it doesn't come down to this, but I can see voter fatigue and voters wanting to give it to a first time potential winner. Almost like what happened to Jokic. I can see people thinking about Lamar in the playoffs and letting that impact their vote even though that is not supposed to have any merit when voting for regular season MVP.
We'll see what happens, but I can see arguments both ways.