It's time we stop recognizing Chris Paul as a great defensive player

[LV Koopa]

DRPM and Wins produced? You can't be serious....

For somebody that has a background in stats, I find it hard to believe you'd fall for basketball quackery. Trying to break down an individual's defensive worth is far more clearer if you look at actual INDIVIDUAL BASED numbers.

Where's the quackery in WP?

 

[Gil Scott-Heroin]

Where's the quackery in WP?

Before we continue, are you talking about Wins Produced?

 

[Emoryal]

i) Look at the graphics I gave
ii) Curry defended more shots/direct possessions than CP did last season
iii) Curry traveled more distance on defense and averaged a higher defensive speed than CP did last season (Curry was actually 16th in the league in avg defensive miles traveled).

Chasing around non primary ball handlers is a bigger defensive workload? Do you think it is harder to guard Damian Lillard or JJ Reddikk? You didn't answer my question at all and yet you preached about context on the same page. The stats don't tell the whole story unless it tells you who they were guarding and how often they actually drove and the average distance they take shots from their defenders. For example Lillard to took a high amount of shots where the defender was close similarly so does JR who Curry guarded a lot when he went up against the cavs. Do you see my point? Who did the cavs attack when the game was on the line in game 7 of the finals?

 

[LV Koopa]

Before we continue, are you talking about Wins Produced?

Yes. I also hope you aren't talking about their rebound weighting.

 

[LV Koopa]

Also just looking at his Synergy page here: NBA.com/Stats

seems like he's killing it on long range shot defenses at a very high frequency. Obviously he's getting beat inside but not at absurdly high %s I thought it would be. Note this only measures actual shots, not shots prevented,

Do you have any numbers to explain/compare CP3s numbers to that disprove he is one of the best defenders in the league right now?

 

[Gil Scott-Heroin]

Chasing around non primary ball handlers is a bigger defensive workload?

Look at Curry's ball-handler defensive attempts and look at Paul's.

You didn't answer my question at all and yet you preached about context on the same page. The stats don't tell the whole story unless it tells you who they were guarding and how often they actually drove and the average distance they take shots from their defenders.

i) Curry guarded more ball-handler FGA - fact
ii) Curry guarded more TOTAL FGA - fact
iii) Curry had a higher contest rate - fact

For example Lillard to took a high amount of shots where the defender was close similarly so does JR who Curry guarded a lot when he went up against the cavs. Do you see my point? Who did the cavs attack when the game was on the line in game 7 of the finals?

Curry was certainly inconsistent on the defensive during the Finals, but it was mostly just Kyrie shooting lights out and being able to shoot over somebody who is relative to his size. In the WCF, the Thunder tried attacking Curry and they weren't so successful -

All possessions of Curry guarding Westbrook -

 

[LV Koopa]

breh I know you aren't going apeshyt over 5 FGA and 13 more makes to prove defensive ability. You're better than that.

 

[Gil Scott-Heroin]

Yes. I also hope you aren't talking about their rebound weighting.

I can't take your argument seriously if you're going to use a Berri metric. He's perhaps the biggest hack in all basketball "analytics". Never mind the fact that Wins Produced isn't based solely on defensive worth - does this even need explaining?

 

[Gil Scott-Heroin]

breh I know you aren't going apeshyt over 5 FGA and 13 more makes to prove defensive ability. You're better than that.

No. I'm not going "apeshyt" over that - I'm simply outlining that Curry wasn't just chasing around "non primary ball handlers" and somehow CP was. Read the statement I responded to.

 

[Gil Scott-Heroin]

Also just looking at his Synergy page here: NBA.com/Stats

seems like he's killing it on long range shot defenses at a very high frequency. Obviously he's getting beat inside but not at absurdly high %s I thought it would be. Note this only measures actual shots, not shots prevented,

Again, context needs to be applied here. Especially on grouping ft-based shot attempts this early on in the season. 14 games isn't a large enough sample size, unless you're a defensive anchor and even then it's probably not enough to go on.

Do you have any numbers to explain/compare CP3s numbers to that disprove he is one of the best defenders in the league right now?

i) Don't have all the relevant data from this season at my disposal
ii) Sample size is too small

I find it hilarious that you've switched gears to arguing about this season - is it perhaps you've conceded Paul wasn't as great defensively over the last immediate seasons as you initially thought?

 

[Gil Scott-Heroin]

What are rondo's defensive stats this year?

 

[LV Koopa]

I can't take your argument seriously if you're going to use a Berri metric. He's perhaps the biggest hack in all basketball "analytics". Never mind the fact that Wins Produced isn't based solely on defensive worth - does this even need explaining?

He's not a hack afaik, and the WP formula they use isn't his original one. Of course WP isn't based solely on defensive worth - it isn't a formula that shows a player's defense.

Back to these stats though.

I'm looking at these Synergy numbers and 1 thing I have to ask is how much weight you are giving them with no regression?

Basically, all they tell us is what happens when a shot goes up, not if shots are denied, and how they are denied which is why basketball defensive is so difficult to quantify in the first place. At least with DRPM we have some idea of a player's approximate defensive value even with multicollinearity issues. When box score stats, line up stats, and predictive stats are all pointing to the same idea that this player may be extremely good defensively why are you saying they aren't? Because you trust your metric more? :/

Back to WP though. I need to find the correlation chart but over the last 3 years (coinciding with when they changed the WP formula iirc), WP had the highest correlation with Point Differential and thus Team Wins. PER had the lowest. And WP was in the 70s with ARPM 2nd. So again, why is your discount of WP valid when it explains more of what's going on than you giving me a chart?

 

[LV Koopa]

Again, context needs to be applied here. Especially on grouping ft-based shot attempts this early on in the season. 14 games isn't a large enough sample size, unless you're a defensive anchor and even then it's probably not enough to go on.

i) Don't have all the relevant data from this season at my disposal
ii) Sample size is too small

I find it hilarious that you've switched gears to arguing about this season - is it perhaps you've conceded Paul wasn't as great defensively over the last immediate seasons as you initially thought?

I only jumped back in the thread talking about this season

Of course the sample size is small and it's early. But as of right now his numbers are looking great. The clippers are far ahead of the league in SRS with the 16th most difficult schedule. That's gonna look interesting for his numbers going forward.

 

[The Fire]

Who are the 5 best PG's defensively?

 

[Emoryal]

Look at Curry's ball-handler defensive attempts and look at Paul's.



i) Curry guarded more ball-handler FGA - fact
ii) Curry guarded more TOTAL FGA - fact
iii) Curry had a higher contest rate - fact



Curry was certainly inconsistent on the defensive during the Finals, but it was mostly just Kyrie shooting lights out and being able to shoot over somebody who is relative to his size. In the WCF, the Thunder tried attacking Curry and they weren't so successful -

All possessions of Curry guarding Westbrook -

Frequency 48.7 vs 42.5.What is more likely you shoot more on higher FG% or you shoot more on less FG%? On an even higher note Russ beat Steph off the dribble and scored on him plenty. Outside of the first 3 or 4 plays most of it is Dray and Klay two elite perimeter defenders helping off there man and cutting off Russ's driving lanes or them packing the paint with Curry behind him or Russ just missing shots he always takes, Where is the supposed elite defense?