Israel–Hamas War: 10/7/2023 - Present

Steelo14

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The pressure is starting to get to them. I just saw an NBC poll showing, for the first time ever, Trump ahead of Biden for the 2024 presidential elections. And it appears this conflict is a major cause of his losing that support.


It might be too early for polls, but with all the recent polling, this seems to have some degree of staying power. With stagflation and Biden overestimating his accomplishments, then backing Netanyahu on this...it's too costly.

Israel army just bombing indiscriminately was bound to alienate a lot of the people who support them--at least publicly. Either justify that billion-dollar military budget and support by improving your targeting or suffer people not cool with innocent children getting blown up.

Unfortunately for Republicans, any other "decent" candidate would easily capture the dissatisfied Dems--but they've moved so far right that they all sound increasingly unhinged. I mean, Trump of all people sounds more decent in his takes than them.
 

Lord Quas

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The pressure is starting to get to them. I just saw an NBC poll showing, for the first time ever, Trump ahead of Biden for the 2024 presidential elections. And it appears this conflict is a major cause of his losing that support.


It might be too early for polls, but with all the recent polling, this seems to have some degree of staying power. With stagflation and Biden overestimating his accomplishments, then backing Netanyahu on this...it's too costly.

Israel army just bombing indiscriminately was bound to alienate a lot of the people who support them--at least publicly. Either justify that billion-dollar military budget and support by improving your targeting or suffer people not cool with innocent children getting blown up.

Unfortunately for Republicans, any other "decent" candidate would easily capture the dissatisfied Dems--but they've moved so far right that they all sound increasingly unhinged. I mean, Trump of all people sounds more decent in his takes than them.
This all just my own speculation, but…

Theres still a whole year left before the election. I think the WH strategy is to be Israel’s lapdog to scoop up all the Republican, Evangelical, and Jewish support in the immediate aftermath.

Once they’re done placating there, it gives them a lot of defense for when they inevitably throw Satanyahu under the bus when the conflict has ended. They’ve BEEN calling out Netanyahu and sanctioning specific settlers, and calling out the handling and the killings going on the West Bank. He’s going to be their scapegoat. Ultimately, once the US throws Netanyahu under the bus, if the Israelis care about their image for the next 50 years, they’ll go with someone who isn’t a right wing lunatic.

Then the phase of rebuilding Gaza can happen. And a peace process can at least be discussed by two willing parties. I believe the WH is going to switch course in the next several months, hard. All Biden would have to do to win all that support back, is to heavily back and support Palestine (which he could do unfettered since he’s groveling for Israel right now and getting all that good will). The sooner any peace talks or rebuilding efforts start, the sooner that Biden can entrench himself in them, making it harder to get rid of him. And Trump being Trump is going to argue for the opposite of what Biden does…and so voting for Biden over Trump becomes even if just a little; more palatable.
 

Steelo14

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This all just my own speculation, but…

Theres still a whole year left before the election. I think the WH strategy is to be Israel’s lapdog to scoop up all the Republican, Evangelical, and Jewish support in the immediate aftermath.

Once they’re done placating there, it gives them a lot of defense for when they inevitably throw Satanyahu under the bus when the conflict has ended. They’ve BEEN calling out Netanyahu and sanctioning specific settlers, and calling out the handling and the killings going on the West Bank. He’s going to be their scapegoat. Ultimately, once the US throws Netanyahu under the bus, if the Israelis care about their image for the next 50 years, they’ll go with someone who isn’t a right wing lunatic.

Then the phase of rebuilding Gaza can happen. And a peace process can at least be discussed by two willing parties. I believe the WH is going to switch course in the next several months, hard. All Biden would have to do to win all that support back, is to heavily back and support Palestine (which he could do unfettered since he’s groveling for Israel right now and getting all that good will). The sooner any peace talks or rebuilding efforts start, the sooner that Biden can entrench himself in them, making it harder to get rid of him. And Trump being Trump is going to argue for the opposite of what Biden does…and so voting for Biden over Trump becomes even if just a little; more palatable.
I agree. I mean, to be honest, Biden is too old at this point to have a firm, minute-by-minute grasp of all these crises unfolding. Then add to that a vice president who is re-enacting the show VEEP, and you have the ingredients for his handlers to basically run the show.

If you noticed their communication since this crisis started, it was contradictory at every step of the way. This is a clear sign of the infighting or lack of clear leadership.

Too many actions that don't make sense: I'm going to fund the fight against rising Islamophobia and Palestinian relief while simultaneously offering a blank check on weapons supplied to Israel (and waive any oversight red tape).

Their strategy might work because, other than the flipping that you mentioned, they'll have a sudden, new crisis or urgency that will make voting for Biden the most important thing ever.

We saw this after they won (while riding the George Floyd wave) only to come in and give extra COVID-19 funding to hire more police, no police reform, no anti-black hate crime bills—then suddenly it was vote democrats because abortion is the most important thing ever right now.
 

Lord Quas

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I agree. I mean, to be honest, Biden is too old at this point to have a firm, minute-by-minute grasp of all these crises unfolding. Then add to that a vice president who is re-enacting the show VEEP, and you have the ingredients for his handlers to basically run the show.

If you noticed their communication since this crisis started, it was contradictory at every step of the way. This is a clear sign of the infighting or lack of clear leadership.

Too many actions that don't make sense: I'm going to fund the fight against rising Islamophobia and Palestinian relief while simultaneously offering a blank check on weapons supplied to Israel (and waive any oversight red tape).

Their strategy might work because, other than the flipping that you mentioned, they'll have a sudden, new crisis or urgency that will make voting for Biden the most important thing ever.

We saw this after they won (while riding the George Floyd wave) only to come in and give extra COVID-19 funding to hire more police, no police reform, no anti-black hate crime bills—then suddenly it was vote democrats because abortion is the most important thing ever right now.
Yeah, Biden is definitely having his strings pulled. Him (and Trump) are way too fukking old. And agreed on Kamala Harris….I’ve really tried my best to see the positives in her…but your VEEP analogy is on point.

Good points on their flip flopping. To some degree though, I think it’s political theater. His whole party and staff can’t back it because that doesn’t allow them to wiggle out of their pro-Israeli position. They can shift their viewpoint under the guise of buckling under the pressure of people in the streets and their dissenting staff and give them a “win”. It’s just, do people see that as a positive that the WH strategy was changed because of them, or will they see it for what it (perhaps truly) is, a ploy to play the pro-Palestinian people to get their votes back. And how many people would be aware of the WH strategy to flip flop. If too many people know, even among your staff, you can’t keep up the ruse or maintain deniability…but infighting and incompetence as you said is certainly more plausible given it requires less conjecture and moving pieces.

I don’t necessarily think that Biden beginning peace talks or rebuilding efforts will be seen as flipping like I may have alluded to earlier…Because if Israel doesn’t choose a right wing psycho, it’s likely going to be that both the Israeli leadership AND the US will see steps towards peace as the right thing to do…in which case it’s less flip flopping and more and more of a no-brainer position to take, even if the US stays neutral (as they should) in the peace talks. It may draw some anger from some portion of Israelis and Jews, but Bidens current stance would mitigate that. And it would put to rest any Israeli reservations about the US’ intentions since they’ve put their money (and weapons) where their mouth is.

It all really depends on whether or not the WH can walk that fine line. Otherwise, they’re going to Budweiser themselves and have both sides hate them and be worse off than if they had just stuck to their original side.
 

Dr. Acula

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So that ship the houthis captured is a Japanese ship not Israeli. Japanese government is in direct contact with the houthis and surround Arab states trying to get their ship back.


 

Buddy

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So that ship the houthis captured is a Japanese ship not Israeli. Japanese government is in direct contact with the houthis and surround Arab states trying to get their ship back.


From what I saw they knew (or at least found out) that it wasn't Israeli but it's connected some Big Wig out there. They vowed to take over any ship passing thru connected to Israel.
 
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