Iran Nuclear Deal: USA remains out under Biden; Russia and Iran collaborating on nuclear items

[Dr. Acula]

Constant warfare from 1993 to this day. That is 25 years of constant conflict when you think about it and it is starting to show.

Someone said something that always stuck with me as being a truism about the militaristic policy of the United States.

"Steel is forged in the crucible of war"

Constant warfare is a way of maintaining readiness for the military. Plus it allows us to test the effectiveness of our new killing toys. It's why they practice on enemies that have no threat of taking us out or invading us so when we have to fight a China or Russia then the US will always have battle tested soldiers to send to fight. It also helps make sense of why when a lot of gun control talk was taking place, there were people from the military speaking out against it because they fear the average citizen will not know how to use a firearm without more access to them.

Though on the other hand, as we see with a lot of stuff we dump money into and hope it protects us, and turns out it doesn't, if this is the true motivation, more than likely these soldiers probably won't end up as battle ready as these people predict.

 

[Geek Nasty]

Why is a thread started in 2013 have a title with recent news?

These megathreads are retarded

 

[FAH1223]

I have been saying this the longest since Trump got elected he will start a war with Iran which will be the death blow to America’s military power and prestige. With Bolton and Pompeo having his ear they are setting the stage for war. All the sanction and economic pressures will push the Iranians to drop the JPCOA since the Europeans have no backbone. In the end they will restart their nuclear power and then Bolton will tell Trump to bomb Iran. It’s going to happen. I guarantee within 12 months a war will happen. And the Mideast along the world will never be the same again. Great powers that are decline pull this foolishness which accelerates their decline.

Won't be a HOT war. Its gonna be trying to sanction and squeeze but not with the same teeth of 2011-2015 under Obama.

They are trying to bully India, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, China from buying Iranian oil. The price of oil will hit $90 a barrel by next year without Iranian oil being bought at the levels we've seen since 2015 once the JCPOA was reached and subsequently in January 2016 when implementation started and UN Sanctions were lifted.

Turkey already said it ain't happening. China said fukk off. India is wavering a bit with contradictions talking about they only follow UN sanctions no unilateral ones. And then there's reports of import cuts... then there's reports of sanctions bypassing ala Turkey.

Now, Nikki Haley tells Modi to put imports down to zero by NOVEMBER? It's impossible.

I was in India in January 2016 and on the news there was a lot of jubiliation with the JCPOA. India didn't need to get waivers and could significantly increase oil imports which put fuel prices down. The papers also talked about how the rupee-rial trade would continue.

 

[Sbp]

I remember about ten years ago it seems we were on the brink of a war with that country. Ahmadinejad vs Bush was on the news like every for a few years then all of a sudden nothing. Did some peace treaty come about that I don't know of. And what were the reasons they at odds anyway. Political brehs drop some knowledge on my head.

 

[FAH1223]

I remember about ten years ago it seems we were on the brink of a war with that country. Ahmadinejad vs Bush was on the news like every for a few years then all of a sudden nothing. Did some peace treaty come about that I don't know of. And what were the reasons they at odds anyway. Political brehs drop some knowledge on my head.

Nuclear Deal was reached in 2015. Iran sanctions were lifted related to the program internationally.

Iran has benefitted from Bush's stupid illegal invasion of Iraq.

Going to war is too costly for the US. It doesn't have the manpower to invade and Iran has prepared for a defensive assymetrical war to make life hell not only for the US but the Gulf Arab countries...

 

[Sbp]

Nuclear Deal was reached in 2015. Iran sanctions were lifted related to the program internationally.

Iran has benefitted from Bush's stupid illegal invasion of Iraq.

Going to war is too costly for the US. It doesn't have the manpower to invade and Iran has prepared for a defensive assymetrical war to make life hell not only for the US but the Gulf Arab countries...

Preciate this breh I had no idea what happened and I'd meaning to ask for a long time

 

[ZoeGod]

Won't be a HOT war. Its gonna be trying to sanction and squeeze but not with the same teeth of 2011-2015 under Obama.

They are trying to bully India, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, China from buying Iranian oil. The price of oil will hit $90 a barrel by next year without Iranian oil being bought at the levels we've seen since 2015 once the JCPOA was reached and subsequently in January 2016 when implementation started and UN Sanctions were lifted.

Turkey already said it ain't happening. China said fukk off. India is wavering a bit with contradictions talking about they only follow UN sanctions no unilateral ones. And then there's reports of import cuts... then there's reports of sanctions bypassing ala Turkey.

Now, Nikki Haley tells Modi to put imports down to zero by NOVEMBER? It's impossible.

I was in India in January 2016 and on the news there was a lot of jubiliation with the JCPOA. India didn't need to get waivers and could significantly increase oil imports which put fuel prices down. The papers also talked about how the rupee-rial trade would continue.

These sanctions won’t lead to regime collapse because the Iranians people are not protesting to end the regime but economic problems. And they know the US is behind this. Secondly the conservative talking point that you can’t trust America has been proven right. So the Iranian people know America can never be trusted. And lastly they do not have the same bite as the Obama era sanctions so in the end it will fail.

My whole reasoning why war will happen is it all depends on the EU. EU companies are already fleeing Iran. The EU has not been able to come up with a policy on trying to preserve the Iran nuclear deal. All they have said is they will promise to keep it. And Iran has made it clear their patience is running out. Iran is already reopening nuclear sites. If the Iranians feel the EU is failing to hold their end of the deal they will simply restart their nuclear program. It makes no sense to stay within the JPCOA while under sanctions and not reaping the economic benefits from Europe. Once they restart their nuclear program which I could see happen at the end of this year when sanctions truly start hitting, we will be at a nuclear crisis in the Mideast. Bolton,Pompeo,MBS, and Bibi Nethanyahu will be pressing Trump to strike Iran. And with Trumps love of military force he will pull the trigger for an air campaign.

 

[FAH1223]

These sanctions won’t lead to regime collapse because the Iranians people are not protesting to end the regime but economic problems. And they know the US is behind this. Secondly the conservative talking point that you can’t trust America has been proven right. So the Iranian people know America can never be trusted. And lastly they do not have the same bite as the Obama era sanctions so in the end it will fail.

My whole reasoning why war will happen is it all depends on the EU. EU companies are already fleeing Iran. The EU has not been able to come up with a policy on trying to preserve the Iran nuclear deal. All they have said is they will promise to keep it. And Iran has made it clear their patience is running out. Iran is already reopening nuclear sites. If the Iranians feel the EU is failing to hold their end of the deal they will simply restart their nuclear program. It makes no sense to stay within the JPCOA while under sanctions and not reaping the economic benefits from Europe. Once they restart their nuclear program which I could see happen at the end of this year when sanctions truly start hitting, we will be at a nuclear crisis in the Mideast. Bolton,Pompeo,MBS, and Bibi Nethanyahu will be pressing Trump to strike Iran. And with Trumps love of military force he will pull the trigger for an air campaign.

Mattis is pushing back it seems after being hawkish on Iran under Obama.

 

[FAH1223]

 

[FAH1223]

 

[FAH1223]

 

[ZoeGod]

The second round of sanctions is going to be in November. I predict Iran will withdraw from the nuclear deal early 2019 and restart their nuclear program. War with Iran could begin spring/summer 2019.

 

[FAH1223]

The second round of sanctions is going to be in November. I predict Iran will withdraw from the nuclear deal early 2019 and restart their nuclear program. War with Iran could begin spring/summer 2019.

Russia, Turkey, India, China and many others will not abide to unilateral U.S. sanctions on Iran. They will not bow to secondary sanctions if the U.S. tries to impose those.

Haley and Pompeo visited Asia and demanded that China and India, two of Iran's biggest oil customers, stop buying Iranian oil. Both countries said meh. They're begging China and India to not increase their imports when, in November, those sanctions bite, when some of Iran's customers stop buying and when more Iranian oil comes to the market.

Those talks happened some months ago and both countries asked for more time to think about the problem. China has now in principle agreed to the Trump request - but only after it made the necessary preparations:

The U.S. has been unable to persuade China to cut Iranian oil imports, according to two officials familiar with the negotiations ...
Beijing has, however, agreed not to ramp up purchases of Iranian crude, according to the officials, ...
...
China -- the world’s top crude buyer and Iran’s No. 1 customer -- has said previously that it opposed unilateral sanctions and lifted monthly oil imports from the country by 26 percent in July. It accounted for 35 percent the Iranian exports last month, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.​

India seems to have had the same idea:

India’s monthly oil imports from Iran surged by about 30 percent to a record 768,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July, as state refiners’ intake surged ahead of U.S. sanctions in November, preliminary tanker arrival data obtained by Reuters showed.
...
July volumes were about 85 percent higher than year ago shipments of about 415,000 bpd, the data showed.
​

When in November the hard oil sanction against buyers of Iranian oil go into effect India and China will insist to keep their current volume flowing. Both have already increased their buys from Iran. They can now promise to Trump that they will not increase their imports from Iran because they already upped those by a very large amount. Iran exports between 2.2 to 2.8 million barrels per day. At least half of that will continue to flow to its two biggest customers. By that measure the sanctions already failed.

Trump can not even use the jurisdiction over the U.S. dollar to stop these trades. The deals with India and China are made under bilateral contracts in local currencies and futures contracts than can now be bought and sold in Shanghai where they are denominated in yuan.

In addition to the sanctions, Trump has launched a number of shady to outright brutal initiatives against Iran. It sent people to Europe to claim that Iran is behind some terror plots in Europe, and that this is enough reason to end the deal. But: "European officials, some skeptical that Iran is behind the plots, say the nuclear deal benefits the region." Still, some European leaders have no backbone and submit to U.S. pressure.

A U.S.-Israeli joint operation was set up to increase internal pressure in Iran. It will try to influence protesters in Iran and to incite terrorism. This is likely an early sign of that initiative:

A large shipment of weapons incl anti-aircraft guns, 7000 cannon projectiles, 73mm antitank cannons, other ammo found in east of #Iran. Kerman prosecutor gen. says they belonged to anti-government groups.
​

 

[FAH1223]

Trump’s Art of the Deal and Iran sanctions – Indian Punchline

An amicable formula seems to be emerging between the Trump administration on the one hand and China and India on the other hand as regards the impending US sanctions on Iran’s oil exports. Below-the-radar consultations are going on between Washington and Beijing and New Delhi.

The Trump administration initially threatened collateral damage to countries such as China and India unless they fell in line with the US diktat to stop all oil imports from Iran to zero by November 4. Oil is at the core of Trump’s containment strategy against Iran, since oil exports are a major source for income for Tehran and the American game plan is all about hurting Iranian economy until its leadership capitulates and begs him for a meeting.

It’s a hackneyed notion to bully Tehran to make it bend. It never worked in these 40 years – not even under Barack Obama who enjoyed vast political capital in the international community. But the good thing about Trump is that behind the fire and fury, he’s a realist. (By the way, Iranians know it, too, as this utterly fascinating tongue-in-cheek commentary yesterday implies.)
So, after some rounds of diplomacy in world capitals (to test the waters, basically) – Beijing, New Delhi, Ankara, in particular, which are big-time buyers of Iranian oil – Washington began signaling that sanctions can also provide for ‘waivers’ – that is, Trump administration will selectively exercise the great privilege of deciding not to punish countries that may still want to buy Iranian oil after the November 4 cutoff date.

Quite obviously, from the feedback received from American diplomats, Washington senses great reluctance to pay heed to the US demarche. In particular, China and India (which account for over half of Iranian oil exports) are heavily dependent on Iranian oil – and, for good reason too. At least in the case of India, Iran offers oil at discounted price on deferred payment basis with substantial reduction in freight and insurance costs.

Now, the US cannot possibly sanction the oil industry in China or India because Big Oil is also hoping to do business with them. (For shale oil, Asian market is the preferred destination.) Some analysts predict that Russia, which like America is also an energy superpower, will be a net gainer. Russia can cash in on the needs of China and India for oil; Russia can buy Iranian oil and sell it through swap deals and so on (and make some money in the bargain); or, Russia may even move into the Iranian oil industry in a big way and make investments there. At any rate, it is foolhardy for the US to imagine that it can control the world energy market in terms of price elasticity of supply.

In view of above factors, the Trump administration is finessing an understanding with China and India whereby the US sanctions policy against Iran does not become an acrimonious issue. The interests to be reconciled are: a) China and India have legitimate interests in sourcing Iranian oil and it is unrealistic and counterproductive to coerce them; and, b) US too has an abiding interest not to sanction the oil companies of China and India, which are prospective buyers of US oil.

The Bloomberg report, here, says that China has point blank refused to cut Iranian oil imports but may agree to keep imports at the existing level as of November 4. Interestingly, the report cites US officials heaving a sigh of relief: “That would ease concerns that China would work to undermine U.S. efforts to isolate the Islamic Republic by purchasing excess oil.” Plainly put, Washington is relieved that Beijing will not take advantage of the US sanctions against Iran.

On the other hand, the Reuters report on India, here, assesses that Indian imports of Iranian crude oil are dramatically increasing in recent months. A 30% increase is reported in July with crude imports from Iran touching record level of 768000 barrels per day. (This is a whopping 85% jump over the corresponding period in July 2017, which was 415000 bpd)!

Of course, if the US can allow China to keep its import of Iranian oil at existing level as of November 4, it cannot deny a similar formula to India. And, therefore, doesn’t it make eminent sense that India keeps ramping up its oil imports from Iran to the maximum level possible by November 4?

Evidently, this is Trump’s Art of the Deal at work. By the way, for Iran too, this would provide some ‘sanctions relief’. Which in turn may even ‘incentivize’ Tehran to talk to Trump. If there is anything like a workable “win-win” in politics, this is it, this is it.

 

[88m3]

Iran goofed