Here are our player scouting reports and 2013-14 projections for the Miami Heat.
PROJECTED STARTERS
MARIO CHALMERS, PG
Pelton's 2013-14 Projections
PPp RPG APG WIN % WARP
Player card »
9.0 2.3 3.5 .512 4.4
Scouting report
+ Super-confident combo guard who can run an offense and shoot the rock.
+ Struggles to penetrate. Either makes a brilliant pass or throws it away with no in-between.
+ Disrupts passing lanes with very active hands. Not quick, but uses his body well.
Analysis
Chalmers is the ultimate zero-sum player. On one possession, he'll do something great that makes you wonder whether he really is a great point guard. On the next, he'll dribble the ball off his foot and then blame his foot for getting in the way. One step forward, one step back.
But the Heat will put up with all the headaches as long as he shoots 40 percent from 3-point range like he did last season. Chalmers has improved his deep shooting to the point where he's above-average at his position and absolutely deadly from the right corner (55.6 percent).
Chalmers briefly turned into Magic Johnson during the opening weeks of the season as he threaded the needle with amazing dishes to his teammates, but he quickly fell back to Earth and reverted to a shoot-first point guard. Overall, his turnover rate dropped while his assist rate nudged up slightly, which is a good sign for his development.
Defensively, Chalmers is still a disruptor, but he doesn't pressure the ball well because of mediocre quickness. His defensive isolation numbers in Synergy sagged into the bottom 20 percent in the league, but if he continues to rack up steals that ignite a LeBron James-Dwyane Wade fast break, the Heat will be happy.
DWYANE WADE, SG
Pelton's 2013-14 Projections
PPG RPG APG WIN % WARP
20.0 4.8 4.6 .623 11.4
Scouting report
+ Strong, slashing guard with amazing shot-blocking ability, vision and finishing skills.
+ Irresistible pump fake. Terror to guard in transition. Great rebounder. No 3-point range.
+ Tough enough to anchor back line and swat shots. Nose for the ball, but lazy in transition D.
Analysis
Pop quiz: There were two players last season who scored at least 20 points on 50-plus percent shooting while averaging at least five rebounds and five assists. Name them.
One is LeBron James and, well, if you're paying attention to this section, you can probably guess who the other guy is.
Wade delivered yet another monster campaign that will go largely unnoticed because of that guy who wears No. 6 for Miami. He is listed at 6-foot-4, but he plays about a half foot taller because of his long arms, brute strength and jumping ability. Combine that with an incredible gift slicing to the rim, and you have one of the most impossible players to guard in the NBA.
Only one slight problem: He has chronic knee issues.
It's become an annual tradition in the NBA postseason that Wade must fight through various knee injuries to win the trophy, and 2012-13 was no different. Plowing through bone bruises that required PRP treatment and a fluid draining, Wade struggled to penetrate defenses that loaded the paint. What's worse, his midrange jump shot abandoned him, as he shot just 32.9 percent from 16 to 23 feet in the postseason, compared to a 42.0 percent conversion rate in the regular season. With no 3-point shot whatsoever, Wade looked shockingly powerless on offense.
To get his body right, Wade has gone back to working with famed trainer Tim Grover and he also underwent OssaTron shock treatment to alleviate knee pain. If those knees can't get close to 100 percent, he'll cramp up the Heat's offense again and perhaps force coach Erik Spoelstra to ponder giving more time to floor spacers like Ray Allen and Shane Battier.
But Wade can contribute elsewhere even with bad knees. He still averaged 4.8 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 1.7 steals and 1.1 blocks per 36 minutes in the playoffs, which are still elite numbers for his position. However, Wade became slow on closeouts and routinely jogged back on defense to protest foul calls to near referees.
The knee-jerk eulogies on Wade's career are ridiculously premature, but he'd be wise to follow James and find a reliable long-range shot as athleticism insurance.
LEBRON JAMES, SF
Pelton's 2013-14 Projections
PPG RPG APG WIN % WARP
25.7 8.0 6.8 .783 22.9
Scouting report
+ Do-it-all physical freak with elite shooting, passing and dribbling skills. Defies position.
+ Intelligent player who can find teammates where no one else can. Deadly 3-point jumper.
+ Average free throw shooter. Can defend almost anyone. Excellent rebounder. Is never hurt.
Analysis
At this point, James is the closest thing we may ever have to a perfect basketball player.
He crushed the rest of the league in PER last season with a 31.7, just shy of his career high. He shot a ridiculous 56.5 percent from the field. He scored more points in the paint per game than anybody else in the league. He dished out more assists than most point guards. He registered a higher rebound rate than Marc Gasol and Robin Lopez. Defensively, he's tall, quick and strong enough to guard just about anyone in the league, and he almost did.
And if all that wasn't enough, consider this: He now wields one of the most potent jumpers in the league. Only Jose Calderon averaged more points per spot-up play than James, according to Synergy Sports.
Most efficient spot-up players, 2012-13 regular season(Min. 100 plays) James' name pops up near the top of all the jump-shot leaderboards for last season. And that includes the unguarded catch-and-shoot category, in which he effectively shot 73.1 percent once you account for the added value of 3s. Only five players were more lethal with open shots. While he couldn't find his shot in the Finals until the very end, he ended up converting 37.5 percent of his 3s in the postseason, which is well above average. (For perspective, Kevin Durant shot 31.3 percent from deep in the playoffs.)
So, what's left for him to master?
Free throws. James seemingly switched up his routine every other game last season, and he still shot his lowest rate since 2007-08. It crept up to 77.7 percent in the playoffs, but he should be doing better and he vows that it's his No. 1 priority this offseason. We'll believe it when we see it.
Coach Erik Spoelstra nicknamed him 1-through-5 for a reason. James guarded everyone from Tiago Splitter to Tony Parker to Al Jefferson to Nate Robinson to Kevin Durant last season, but it's almost impossible to quantify that versatility. Nonetheless, the Heat were 4.4 points better per 100 possessions defensively with him on the floor, and 82games says he held his small forward counterpart to just a 12.7 PER.
With a lethal jump shot now in his repertoire, he's a reliable free throw routine from achieving the basketball ideal.
UDONIS HASLEM, PF
Pelton's 2013-14 Projections
PPG RPG APG WIN % WARP
4.0 5.3 0.5 .332 -2.2
+ Jump-shooting, tough center in an unathletic forward's body. Short corner specialist.
+ Ugly shot mechanics that yield inconsistent results. Doesn't draw fouls.
+ Smart defender. Tenacious rebounder with knack for ball. Fearless enforcer.
Analysis
Haslem enjoyed a bounce-back season after struggling through foot problems that kept him grounded in 2011-12. But Haslem adjusted his game this past season to take fewer contested shots at the rim and limit his basket attacks to open layups coming from pick-and-roll actions. As a result, he was blocked just 6.2 percent of his shots in 2012-13, compared to 10.6 percent in 2011-12. Basically, Haslem found peace with where he is in his career.
The herky-jerky jumper comes and goes. When it goes in, he looks like a useful player. When it doesn't, he looks all but washed up. But the guy makes it just enough to keep him in the starting rotation and logging big minutes. He shot 41 percent from 16 to 23 feet last season, up from his 35.0 percent rate the previous season. Like Norris Cole, his shot improved as the season progressed.
Haslem tallies big rebounding numbers individually, but the Heat actually cleaned the glass slightly better when he was on the bench (49.3 percent to 48.5 percent). That disparity worsened in the playoffs, lending credence to the notion that Haslem sometimes gobbles up rebounds at the expense of his teammates.
His defense is a mixed bag. Haslem never shies away from contact on the defensive end and continues to be one of the best charge-takers in the league. He's still woefully undersized, and his opponent counterpart PER of 21.1 reflects that he can get physically dominated underneath. His foul rate soared last season, but he's a high-IQ defender who has mastered coach Erik Spoelstra's highly detailed system.