Google Glass....proof that Ray Kurzweil's prediction are all coming true

[ChrisDorner]

So alot of people were writing articles in 2009 attacking Ray Kurzweil because some of his predictions didn't come true exactly when he predicted. I never really looked at him as some sorcerer with the power to see the exact future but rather as a visionary who knows better than most where technology is taking us. I looked back at his prediction and ALL of them are either already here or about to be here like Google Glass. Here are just a few of the big things he saw would happen by 2009 in his 1999 book Age of Spiritual Machines.

The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999)

2009

- Most books will be read on screens rather than paper. (iPad, Kindle)
- People use personal computers the size of rings, pins, credit cards and books. (smartphones are about the size of credit cards and tablets are the size of books; though rings and pins is overstating it)
- Cables are disappearing. Computer peripheries use wireless communication. (4G WiFi)
- People can talk to their computer to give commands. (Siri, Google Voice)
- Computer displays built into eyeglasses for augmented reality are used. (Google Glass)

The only major prediction he fukked up on was his prediction that driverless cars would be available to the public by now. That technology still looks like its about 5 years out. Even if all his predictions for the 2020s and 2030s are 5-10 years off like he was about driverless cars, the future will be much more radical than we can imagine. Here's a taste of what he sees being possible in the next 20-30 years. shyt is gonna be crazy.

2029

- A $1,000 personal computer is 1,000 times more powerful than the human brain.
- Computer implants that go into the eyes and ears allow direct interface with computers, communications and Internet-based applications. The implants are also capable of recording what the user sees and hears. future of Google Glass
- Direct brain implants allow users to enter full-immersion virtual reality—with complete sensory stimulation—without any external equipment. future of the Oculus Rift

2039

- Mind uploading becomes successful as humans become software-based: living out on the Web, projecting bodies whenever they want or need (whether in virtual or real reality), and living indefinitely so long as they maintain their "mind file".
- Nanomachines in peoples' brains will allow them to "telepathically" communicate with other, similarly augmented humans via wireless networks.

Live indefinitely by 2039? So I might not ever die

 

[Swagnificent]

some of this stuff sound crazy. people consciousness living forever as long as they willing to murder another persons existence by deleting their consciousness....this is actually sick. imagine some wealthy sick fukkers breed humans just for the sole purpose of one day taking their body so they can repeat the process and live forever. george bush son taking dna from lebron, jordan, vick, and other greats and when the dude grows, bush jr implants his consciousness into the guy and live out his dream as a NBA megastar..demonic..

No. That is not necessary at all. Why choose to live in an imperfect body (no matter who's genes you take) in an imperfect world. I would rather live in a virtual reality where I can be god. Remember the Matrix. Would you rather live in a world like the Matrix (which is indistinguishable from the real world) in which you can have superpowers like Neo or the real world?

I'd much rather be God in my virtual world having the perfect body and fukking dime bytches everyday while also living out my NBA megastar fantasy rather than returning to the imperfect real world. I think most people will spend most of their lives in virtual reality rather than the real world. We already spend most of our times in crude virtual reality. Either watching TV, surfing the net, or playing video games. Might as well upgrade to the best virtual reality ever in 30 years when it becomes available.

 

[Wild self]

How technology progress these last 30 years is unreal. Google Glass is gonna make a lot of heads spin outta control.

 

[Swagnificent]

People predicted outlandish things in the 50s and that shyt did not come true. They would be at what we have now but they thought we'd be living on Mars and shyt too. Consumer technology seems to outpace medical science by a large margin. We need to get cures for Cancer and AIDS first, or treatments to nullify their existence.

Listen there is a difference between technology in general and information technology. The reason the predictions in the 50s were wrong is because they were not predictions about computing technology. Kurzweil's predictions so far have been accurate because he is simply extrapolating using Moore's law. If you've never heard of Moore's law, its the phenomenon in computing technology which allows you to buy a smartphone each year that is more powerful than the smartphone you bought last year for the same price.

Computing/information technology has been doubling in power every 18 months for the last 40 years. People have been predicting that Moore's law would end for the last 20 years, however, it hasn't. And with new innovations like 3D chips, it looks like the party will continue. Kurzweil simply plots the continuation of Moore's law on a graph, sees how much power computers will have at the end of each decade. Then deduces what sorts of technology could be possible with that much computing power available. Since he's an inventor he also keeps tabs on all the latest research and breaking news in the tech world.

If Moore's law continues, that is how in 2019, he predicts that your $1,000 laptop computer will be able to do as many calculations per second as one human mind. That is also why he predicts by 2029, your $1,000 computer will be able to do as many calculations as 1,000 human minds. He then simply guesses what sort of technology could be possible using that much computing power. When we get into the 2040s, we get to ridiculous levels of computing power which is why his predictions look crazy. Simply using Moore's law gets us to a $1,000 laptop in 2040 being more powerful than all human minds put together.

That sort of computing power is so mind blowing which is why we can't comprehend what it means. What the fukk does it mean to have a $1,000 computer that is smarter than all human minds put together?

 

[Swagnificent]

link

here's his wiki page Predictions made by Ray Kurzweil - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

but you should probably get his books.....I suggest his 2005 book The Singularity is Near......its real good and explains all his predictions and how we're gonna get there based on current/emerging technologies

 

[Swagnificent]

I find it interesting to ponder that if/when we ever produce an artificial "intelligence" that can invent stuff better than we can, the rate of technological progression will accelerate in ways we can't really imagine. If a computer is as "smart" as us this year, it wouldn't be many years before it's a thousand times smarter than us. Then things that take us years to research and develop could be worked out in seconds.

I put "intelligence" in quotes because this thing wouldn't have to get the joke, or feel emotions... it would only have to be better at inventing technology than the smartest humans are.

and that my friend is what is called THE SINGULARITY

The moment when machines are better able to improve themselves than the smartest human. Its the reason why Kurzweil thinks making any predictions post-Singularity are unpredictable. Problems we now think might take decades could be solved in seconds.

The craziest thing about all this is that most AI heads think this will happen before the end of the century. Ray put it at 2045 and even the most skeptical AI people think it'll here by 2100 at the latest.

 

[Swagnificent]

It was once said the rate of technology will only increase until it begins to replace a significant number of white collar jobs, in much the same vein it has replaced blue collar jobs.

Its already doing that right now. Not sure how many bankers/lawyers there are here but both those industries are not hiring as much as they used to because technology is replacing much of what they do. As long the corporate heads can save money by replacing expensive human labor with comparable machine labor, it'll happen. The thing about capitalism is that those with capital make all the rules. Those providing labor, even white collar labor, have no say.

Post singularity, there will be no job done by humans because by definition computers will be smarter than humans in every way.

 

[Swagnificent]

How technology progress these last 30 years is unreal. Google Glass is gonna make a lot of heads spin outta control.

Just think how crazy Google Glass will be in 5-10 years when it matures. Look back at how much smartphones have progressed since 2003. I'm thinking by 2023 we'll have something like this.

I'll actually stay in line the night before for something like this.

 

[Tom]

Ray Kurzweil also predicted the Coli's rise and SOHH's downfall

 

[Dirty_Jerz]

So alot of people were writing articles in 2009 attacking Ray Kurzweil because some of his predictions didn't come true exactly when he predicted. I never really looked at him as some sorcerer with the power to see the exact future but rather as a visionary who knows better than most where technology is taking us. I looked back at his prediction and ALL of them are either already here or about to be here like Google Glass. Here are just a few of the big things he saw would happen by 2009 in his 1999 book Age of Spiritual Machines.

The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999)

2009

- Most books will be read on screens rather than paper. (iPad, Kindle)
- People use personal computers the size of rings, pins, credit cards and books. (smartphones are about the size of credit cards and tablets are the size of books; though rings and pins is overstating it)
- Cables are disappearing. Computer peripheries use wireless communication. (4G WiFi)
- People can talk to their computer to give commands. (Siri, Google Voice)
- Computer displays built into eyeglasses for augmented reality are used. (Google Glass)

The only major prediction he fukked up on was his prediction that driverless cars would be available to the public by now. That technology still looks like its about 5 years out. Even if all his predictions for the 2020s and 2030s are 5-10 years off like he was about driverless cars, the future will be much more radical than we can imagine. Here's a taste of what he sees being possible in the next 20-30 years. shyt is gonna be crazy.

2029

- A $1,000 personal computer is 1,000 times more powerful than the human brain.
- Computer implants that go into the eyes and ears allow direct interface with computers, communications and Internet-based applications. The implants are also capable of recording what the user sees and hears. future of Google Glass
- Direct brain implants allow users to enter full-immersion virtual reality—with complete sensory stimulation—without any external equipment. future of the Oculus Rift

2039

- Mind uploading becomes successful as humans become software-based: living out on the Web, projecting bodies whenever they want or need (whether in virtual or real reality), and living indefinitely so long as they maintain their "mind file".
- Nanomachines in peoples' brains will allow them to "telepathically" communicate with other, similarly augmented humans via wireless networks.

Would You Transfer Your Concioussness To Live Longer If You Could? Links Inside

 

[concise]

I could see inserting things into the brain. I can see super duper mini computers.

But downloading a brain?
Will kids be going to school or will their parents just pay to download the elementary school curriculum? College curriculum?
Who's going to build code for your reactions to a brand new experience? Or code to simulate how people get better at new tasks by practice? Or ethics?

 

[Swagnificent]

I could see inserting things into the brain. I can see super duper mini computers.

But downloading a brain?
Will kids be going to school or will their parents just pay to download the elementary school curriculum? College curriculum?
Who's going to build code for your reactions to a brand new experience? Or code to simulate how people get better at new tasks by practice? Or ethics?

The answer to all those questions are right now in our brains. Basically there are two camps of AI engineers. Those who are following the neuroscience view and those who are not. The neuroscience view says the answer to all those questions are in our brains. All we need to do is map all the neurons and synapses in our brain. See how the signals are sent when we feel a brand new experience or how we get better while practicing or how we develop ethics. Then just simulate those interactions in a computer. Right now we can interpret crude electrical signals from the brain. However, with projects like the EU map of the human brain, we might one day be able to code for almost anything you can think of.

Then just figure out how to make the computer brain do what we do just much faster and possibly better. The chemical signals in our brain move only 10 m/s. Computers on the other hand send information at the speed of light which is nearly 300 million m/s. If we had that amount of computing speed in our brains, we would be exponentially smarter. That is how you get to computers that are smarter than humans. Copy the human brain neuron for neuron. Then simulate it in a computer while taking advantage of all the benefits of computing on silicon over carbon.

 

[Wild self]

Listen there is a difference between technology in general and information technology. The reason the predictions in the 50s were wrong is because they were not predictions about computing technology. Kurzweil's predictions so far have been accurate because he is simply extrapolating using Moore's law. If you've never heard of Moore's law, its the phenomenon in computing technology which allows you to buy a smartphone each year that is more powerful than the smartphone you bought last year for the same price.

Computing/information technology has been doubling in power every 18 months for the last 40 years. People have been predicting that Moore's law would end for the last 20 years, however, it hasn't. And with new innovations like 3D chips, it looks like the party will continue. Kurzweil simply plots the continuation of Moore's law on a graph, sees how much power computers will have at the end of each decade. Then deduces what sorts of technology could be possible with that much computing power available. Since he's an inventor he also keeps tabs on all the latest research and breaking news in the tech world.

If Moore's law continues, that is how in 2019, he predicts that your $1,000 laptop computer will be able to do as many calculations per second as one human mind. That is also why he predicts by 2029, your $1,000 computer will be able to do as many calculations as 1,000 human minds. He then simply guesses what sort of technology could be possible using that much computing power. When we get into the 2040s, we get to ridiculous levels of computing power which is why his predictions look crazy. Simply using Moore's law gets us to a $1,000 laptop in 2040 being more powerful than all human minds put together.

That sort of computing power is so mind blowing which is why we can't comprehend what it means. What the fukk does it mean to have a $1,000 computer that is smarter than all human minds put together?

If that technology falls in the wrong hands, such influences will fukk up the human race.

 

[Swagnificent]

If that technology falls in the wrong hands, such influences will fukk up the human race.

I'm actually optimistic because I think our demonic behavior is the result of two things. Environmental pressures and genetic defects. By 2045 we should have a strong grasp on genetic disorders and we should be able to correct for them so dudes like the guy who did the Aurora shootings don't exist. On the issue of environmental pressures, I think if we give people utopia they won't commit evil acts.

Imagine if you could get anything you wanted. Food, entertainment, women, etc. With fully immerse virtual reality like the Matrix being as widespread as a $100 laptop by 2045, almost everyone will be able to live out whatever fantasy they want. I'm not worried about demonic behavior because minus genetic defects I don't see people commits evil acts minus the environmental pressures.

 

[concise]

The answer to all those questions are right now in our brains. Basically there are two camps of AI engineers. Those who are following the neuroscience view and those who are not. The neuroscience view says the answer to all those questions are in our brains. All we need to do is map all the neurons and synapses in our brain. See how the signals are sent when we feel a brand new experience or how we get better while practicing or how we develop ethics. Then just simulate those interactions in a computer. Right now we can interpret crude electrical signals from the brain. However, with projects like the EU map of the human brain, we might one day be able to code for almost anything you can think of.

Then just figure out how to make the computer brain do what we do just much faster and possibly better. The chemical signals in our brain move only 10 m/s. Computers on the other hand send information at the speed of light which is nearly 300 million m/s. If we had that amount of computing speed in our brains, we would be exponentially smarter. That is how you get to computers that are smarter than humans. Copy the human brain neuron for neuron. Then simulate it in a computer while taking advantage of all the benefits of computing on silicon over carbon.

Even then, different people process the same experiences in different ways. Say something like abortion, or stealing food when you're poor and hungry. If we ever get to this point, who is going to decide which coded views are legitimized and allowed to be copied and repasted for eternity?


Who is going to be able to afford these privileges in the first place since these things are clearly going to make so many more jobs obsolete? If we get to the point when those who are currently building them and those who are currently in whatever top percentage can currently afford it, use this as a means to permanently soldify their place as dominating those who can't afford it and spread their ideologies by their reinforced power, who does this really benefit?