for the betters out here, the post your picks thread

[ryderldb]

Off to a good start

You got a prediction for the Monday night game?

 

[L&HH]

You got a prediction for the Monday night game?

It'll be interesting to see where the public goes for this but it's hard not to take Seattle -11 with the Rams current predicament, but Seattle is not w/o their struggles on the road.

 

[7oclock]

 

[L&HH]

Hedging bets, this isnt a common strategy I don't see being employed more often (it is used but moreso as a backup plan and not something ppl strategically use ahead of time to their advantage and I think it can be exploites)...

Im on covers and this guy posted a a 7-team parlay risking $50 to win 5206: He's hit on five on the Seven plays so far and just needs STL +11 and Bulls +5.

Now someone suggested him to hedge, play 700 on Sea -11 and if the rams cover play 1400 on MIA -5, therefore no matter the outcome he'll at least come up $700 (minus some juice and/or the $50 on the parlay). I think it'd be dope if you could find a way to strategically implement this in your week to week wagers.



INTERNET: 7 Team Parlay risk 50 win 5206232 Rams +11 (-110) (NFL)
WON: 957 Red Sox -1½ (+150) LP(Buchholz, C & Lynn, L) (MLB) Score: 4-2
503 Bulls +5 (-110) (NBA)
WON: TOT OVR 1 Sharks/Senators over 5½ (+125) (NHL) Score: 5-2
WON: TOT OVR 3 Lightning/Panthers over 5½ (-120) (NHL) Score: 4-3
WON: 8 Avalanche (-215) (NHL) Score: 3-2
INTERNET: 7 Team Parlay risk 50 win 5206232 Rams +11 (-110) (NFL)
WON: 957 Red Sox -1½ (+150) LP(Buchholz, C & Lynn, L) (MLB) Score: 4-2
503 Bulls +5 (-110) (NBA)
WON: TOT OVR 1 Sharks/Senators over 5½ (+125) (NHL) Score: 5-2
WON: TOT OVR 3 Lightning/Panthers over 5½ (-120) (NHL) Score: 4-3
WON: 8 Avalanche (-215) (NHL) Score: 3-2

 

[L&HH]

I think Im going to take SEA 1H -7 tomorrow,

 

[7oclock]

contemplating placing a wager on that Bulls +5

 

[KritNC]

It'll be interesting to see where the public goes for this but it's hard not to take Seattle -11 with the Rams current predicament, but Seattle is not w/o their struggles on the road.

The system says no play also not really sure how to adjust for backup qb still working in that ranking system. But just to make things interesting (edit)

The line is creeping up to rams +14 I'll be taking that all day

 

[USSInsiders]

The system says no play also not really sure how to adjust for backup qb still working in that ranking system. But just to make things interesting (edit)

The line is creeping up to rams +14 I'll be taking that all day

I'm waiting patiently too for the line to go up to 14. This smells like one of those weird ass games where some bullshyt happens to screw over the heavy favorite laying two TDs. Your system is smart though, this game is a mess but fukk it, I'm going in on the Rams if it gets to 13.5 or 14.

contemplating placing a wager on that Bulls +5

at finally posting the ticket. Nice hit. Keep posting in here b we all try to work together to win and discuss shyt. Anyway, I'm with you on that. Bulls 5 is gonna be money imo, I had the line pegged at 5.5 before it came out and lo and behold it opened at 5.5 or 5 in most places. I see BUlls winning the game straight up or losing by 4 tops, be patient though. The line might go up to 5.5 and if you can, buy up to 6 because I think 6 is where the most value is at.

 

[7oclock]

I'm waiting patiently too for the line to go up to 14. This smells like one of those weird ass games where some bullshyt happens to screw over the heavy favorite laying two TDs. Your system is smart though, this game is a mess but fukk it, I'm going in on the Rams if it gets to 13.5 or 14.



at finally posting the ticket. Nice hit. Keep posting in here b we all try to work together to win and discuss shyt. Anyway, I'm with you on that. Bulls 5 is gonna be money imo, I had the line pegged at 5.5 before it came out and lo and behold it opened at 5.5 or 5 in most places. I see BUlls winning the game straight up or losing by 4 tops, be patient though. The line might go up to 5.5 and if you can, buy up to 6 because I think 6 is where the most value is at.

yeah, I like to fukk around a bit and make jokes in the Coliseum, but I see you guys are really talking about making money so I'll be serious in here.

I'll will check back in manana and see where the line is at.

 

[KritNC]

1. what sports book is this
2. how you parlay 86 bucks into $4835.75 - or is that you account balance?

Details breh - and welcome to this thread we been eating good recently

 

[7oclock]

1. what sports book is this
2. how you parlay 86 bucks into $4835.75 - or is that you account balance?

Details breh - and welcome to this thread we been eating good recently

bet online...the 86 bucks is free play for putting in a code when i deposited funds (i bet $75 of free money and won $86 on a 115 money line).

 

[KritNC]

talking about waiting for that half-point for value
i like the dedication, but i'm sure 99% of people aint about that life

The difference between 13.5 and 14 is enough to wait it out for breh.

NFL Margin Of Victory
I had a friend of mine ask me this question last year. How often in the NFL does the final winning margin fall on 3 or 7? While I did have a general idea of the numbers, it had been years since I had actually compiled a list of the NFL betting numbers and how often a game falls on a certain point spread.

The list below of the NFL games winning margin numbers shows that 3 points is the most common followed by 7 points. No surprises there. However, I noticed a few handicapping tidbits that support my opinion of fading the point spread favorite in the NFL or don't play the game at all.

In the last twenty years 46.12% of all the NFL regular season games were decided by 7 or less points and 23.59% of the football games were decided by 3 or less. You may think that those numbers support playing the betting line fav, but you haven't factored in that the dogs will win approximately 50% of the games over the course of most seasons. If I've lost you with the math then make sure that you visit leading into the NFL football season as I will break down the winning percent of teams laying points over the last 5 years.

• 0 points 0.20%
• 1 point 4.27%
• 2 pts 3.74%
• 3 pts 15.38%
• 4 pts 5.58%
• 5 pts 3.15%
• 6 pts 5.76%
• 7 pts 8.04%
• 8 pts 2.56%
• 9 pts 1.83%
• 10 pts 5.80%
• 11 pts 3.28%
• 12 pts 1.63%
• 13 pts 3.13%
• 14 pts 4.66%
• 15 pts 1.63%
• 16 pts 2.22%
• 17 pts 3.85%
• 18 pts 2.10%
• 19 pts 1.80%
• 20 pts 2.62%
• 21 pts 2.62%
• 22 pts 0.83%
• 23 pts 1.20%
• 24 pts 2.12%
• 25 pts 0.92%
• 26 pts 0.65%
• 27 pts 1.67%
• 28 pts 1.49%
• 29 pts 0.31%
• 30 pts 0.59%
• 31 pts 1.18%
• 32 pts 0.55%
• 33 pts 0.26%
• 34 pts 0.63%
• 35 pts 0.57%

 

[KritNC]

can't you just buy the half point? unless you're betting thousands at a time, then i'd understand.

thats what i mean. if you're waiting those out and not betting thousands, there's really no point, waiting for an extra 50 cents.

You could but your giving up value - from a casual betting standpoint it is not a big deal - but over time things like .5 point adjustments to lines it what tips you from breaking even to making money.

 

[L&HH]

took the 1h -7.5...

 

[L&HH]