COVID-19 Pandemic (Coronavirus)

Theo Penn

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J&J results underwhelming.

My former colleague that’s over there said she knew the news was bad when they canceled their global town hall meeting and other related events last week.

:francis:

Pfizer probably has the best one on the market, but you still may want to get that booster shot they’re working on to deal with the SA variant (data pending).

These variants have these officials more shook than they are leading on. They’re trying to keep that poker face.
 

Stir Fry

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I've always suspected this. My gut says that a lab was working on a sars treatment/vaccine and one of the employees caught it from one of the samples they were working with somehow.

Disclaimer: I'm not a scientist, so I may be way off basis. It is documented that numerous pharmaceutical companies were working SARS on treatments and research well before this virus hit though.
 

Nero Christ

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J&J results underwhelming.

My former colleague that’s over there said she knew the news was bad when they canceled their global town hall meeting and other related events last week.

:francis:

Pfizer probably has the best one on the market, but you still may want to get that booster shot they’re working on to deal with the SA variant (data pending).

These variants have these officials more shook than they are leading on. They’re trying to keep that poker face.

I figured officials were scared with Fauci coming out in the last 3 weeks & every time pushing the "we'll be back to normalcy" time back by a season

went from Spring to now early Fall:francis: they don't want to scare Americans but ultimately they don't want Americans even angrier & crazier than they already are, so now they're reusing the same tactic they used with the "flatten the curve" timetable.

it's crazy, I watched some tennis happening in Australia, and they had a full crowd with no masks and said they hadn't had a new case in 12 weeks :wow: that ain't happening here as Americans don't want to behave themselves and the wealthy don't want to sacrifice a cent:francis:
 

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Scientists said, at worst, even the new variants would be weakened by the vaccine 85 to 90%

John Campbell does a breakdown of some of the preliminary results from testing and monitoring vaccine efficacy against the new mutants.

This video plus some of his recent comments lead to the following:

  • Brazil and South African variants evade the immune system so you can be re-infected (at higher rates than earlier widespread strains). See Manaus example and video below.
  • Brazil and South African variants both reduce efficacy of some vaccines.

example:

Novvavax:

Efficacy global: 95.6%
Efficacy (UK variant): 85%
Efficacy South Africa (mutant non HIV): 60%
Efficacy South Africa: (mutant HIV): 49.4%​

That's a 48% reduction for immunocompromised and 37% reduction generally for the South African variant (E484 variation).

That's with the positive skew of selected population trials.

ts=10m timestamped link below



Johnson and Johnson also showing lower rates of efficacy in South Africa and Latin America for disease. No regional breakdown given for "serious disease". ts 21m52s

@HewittAve
 

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Do we have any hard evidence of this?

Let me think about that :patrice:

Yes these results have been published all over the place.

Not only do we have evidence for the above but we have evidence that the South African and Brazilian variants with the E484 mutation can evade the immune system to a greater degree. The UK variant also results in more serious illness.

Pfizer and Moderna are already working on new vaccine versions / boosters. Osterhiolm said (yesterday?) that these variants could push back "the end" of Covid by an additional year.

Covid mutations could prolong the pandemic another year, health officials warn | Daily Mail Online

Also Novvavax and Johnson: https://www.thecoli.com/posts/40754004/
 

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I figured officials were scared with Fauci coming out in the last 3 weeks & every time pushing the "we'll be back to normalcy" time back by a season

went from Spring to now early Fall:francis: they don't want to scare Americans but ultimately they don't want Americans even angrier & crazier than they already are, so now they're reusing the same tactic they used with the "flatten the curve" timetable.

I have been saying it from time but certain posters wanted to beef with me about it.

The vaccines are not a silver bullet and messaging needs to be clearer about that.

Some posters even claimed that they had not seen politicians hyping the vaccines up as bringing a quick end to this, but anyone with their eyes open can see that is exactly what they have been doing.

I suppose what was implied but not made clear by me was the time factor. We might go back to normal at some point in the future (but as I said I believe better treatments will play a role here). The narrative has been that we have turned the corner and we are on a straight-ish-line path to normalcy. Pushing back against that narrative is not just about "endemicity" but that is part of it. I made a post the other day about the time for honest disclosure from our leaders and in my mind that includes the fact that the effect of the vaccine is a great unknown, that if we get transmission rates cut by 50% (as suggested by BioNTech) and then go back to "normal" in the near-term the net effect will most likely be a higher level of live cases circulating in the population than we have now. That means that those who do not take the vaccine or the ~5% where it does not work will be much more likely to catch it than today..

maybe someone with the power and authority to do so should release an honest, open, full disclosure about the vaccine including considering (not dodging) a healthy dose of open questions to assuage the sceptics.

if they keep just releasing media puff pieces then people will question and doubt even more.

why not release a road map? why not release a list of official knowns/unknowns? why not acknowledge some legitimate concerns? you know how they do when they want people to not drink at xmas, or want people to stop smoking. consistent, honest, open, detailed and informative #messaging.

-

it came out in the british press that this will probably last until 2022 at least. things like that leaking out just undermines trust. and we don't know if it will stop transmission but messaging is muddled and disjointed.

"More than half of the UK population could have to wait until 2022 to get the coronavirus vaccine, the National Audit Office (NAO) has said.
The public spending watchdog said that 267 million doses of vaccines have been bought by the government - costing £2.9 billion."

Half of UK could have to wait until 2022 for Covid-19 vaccine - LBC

"Prof Ugur Sahin, BioNTech co-founder, also raised hopes the jab could halve transmission of the virus, resulting in a "dramatic reduction in cases".
Last week, BioNTech and co-developers Pfizer said preliminary analysis showed their vaccine could prevent more than 90% of people from getting Covid-19.
About 43,000 people took part in tests.
In an interview on BBC One's Andrew Marr Show, Prof Sahin said he expected further analysis to show the vaccine would reduce transmission between people as well as stop symptoms developing in someone who has had the vaccine.
"I'm very confident that transmission between people will be reduced by such a highly effective vaccine - maybe not 90% but maybe 50% - but we should not forget that even that could result in a dramatic reduction of the pandemic spread," he said."

Covid-19: Normal life back next winter, says vaccine creator

then you have the questions of mutations, questions of animal reservoirs.

the amount of attention that the brits are paying to their latest mutation means that this is probably a bigger problem than they are telling us. mink mutations are still lurking.

In a world of poor messaging it is natural to ask questions and sometimes get the wrong answers. it contributes to some elements going off the edge, distrusting whatever the govt says and coming under the influence of alternative sources of information.

Where's the proper detailed messaging? Why does this information void exist at all?

Yeah some brehs on here can piece it all together (to varying extents) but how about your aunt, granny, cousins etc? Older members of the family find the entire thing too confusing and too contradictory.
 

Wild self

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I have been saying it from time but certain posters wanted to beef with me about it.

The vaccines are not a silver bullet and messaging needs to be clearer about that.

Some posters even claimed that they had not seen politicians hyping the vaccines up as bringing a quick end to this, but anyone with their eyes open can see that is exactly what they have been doing.


So you,saying that there is no end to this. :beli:
 

Theo Penn

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I have been saying it from time but certain posters wanted to beef with me about it.

The vaccines are not a silver bullet and messaging needs to be clearer about that.

Some posters even claimed that they had not seen politicians hyping the vaccines up as bringing a quick end to this, but anyone with their eyes open can see that is exactly what they have been doing.


Exactly. This whole “turning the corner” angle with the vaccine is meant to instill false optimism in the general public. They want to keep businesses up and make the public feel ok about the predicament they’re in. As a result of this, they have to keep moving the goalposts incrementally and do a whole lot of juelzing. Also, not being forthcoming presents a risk to public health because people are going to let their guard down and do what they want to do bc they think it’s almost over. This current round of vaccines is a not the panacea.
 

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Exactly. This whole “turning the corner” angle with the vaccine is meant to instill false optimism in the general public. They want to keep businesses up and make the public feel ok about the predicament they’re in. As a result of this, they have to keep moving the goalposts incrementally and do a whole lot of juelzing. Also, not being forthcoming presents a risk to public health because people are going to let their guard down and do what they want to do bc they think it’s almost over. This current round of vaccines is a not the panacea.

:ehh:

They are also saying it because they want as many people as possible to take the vaccines, albeit without those people knowing the context.

I am still waiting for a politician to produce a vaccine roadmap to normalcy. Boris was said to be producing one last week, so we wait.

"PM promises roadmap to 'steadily reclaim our lives'
  1. The government will set out a "roadmap" for reopening schools, the economy and society on 22 February, the PM says
  2. Boris Johnson also tells a Downing Street briefing that 8 March is the earliest date schools could reopen"
Covid-19: PM promises roadmap to 'steadily reclaim our lives' - BBC News

Not sure if he will include hard milestones for the vaccine. He could just come out and say it's impossible to be certain about dates now but :hubie:
 

banner34

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I figured officials were scared with Fauci coming out in the last 3 weeks & every time pushing the "we'll be back to normalcy" time back by a season

went from Spring to now early Fall:francis: they don't want to scare Americans but ultimately they don't want Americans even angrier & crazier than they already are, so now they're reusing the same tactic they used with the "flatten the curve" timetable.

it's crazy, I watched some tennis happening in Australia, and they had a full crowd with no masks and said they hadn't had a new case in 12 weeks :wow: that ain't happening here as Americans don't want to behave themselves and the wealthy don't want to sacrifice a cent:francis:
Australia is on a island by itself, so it’s easier to stop the virus in a country with no borders.
 
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