Countdown to Elliot: Dallas Cowboys 2016 Offseason Thread
- Thread starter jay211
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Rell84shots
Veteran
So an inexperienced rookie QB would've helped?
Does Goff also make T-Will & Beasley better?
BlueHeffner
Veteran
Breh stop reachingSo an inexperienced rookie QB would've helped?
GOFF>>>>>Kellen Moore>>>>Weeden>>>>Cassell
Bosa wouldnt had outperformed Hardy
Ramsey wouldve=Byron Jones rookie season
Rell84shots
Veteran
How is that reaching? Those 3 have way more experience than Goff, and you think a rookie coming in and winning those games they lost isn't a reach? What has he done to prove he can win on an NFL level? Remember there were people who felt Ryan Leaf was better than ManningBreh stop reaching
GOFF>>>>>Kellen Moore>>>>Weeden>>>>Cassell
Bosa wouldnt had outperformed Hardy
Ramsey wouldve=Byron Jones rookie season
FrankyFourFingers
Raised in Ruins
What about zeke?Breh stop reaching
GOFF>>>>>Kellen Moore>>>>Weeden>>>>Cassell
Bosa wouldnt had outperformed Hardy
Ramsey wouldve=Byron Jones rookie season
BlueHeffner
Veteran
So a top rookie QB couldnt come in and win 1 gameHow is that reaching? Those 3 have way more experience than Goff, and you think a rookie coming in and winning those games they lost isn't a reach? What has he done to prove he can win on an NFL level? Remember there were people who felt Ryan Leaf was better than Manning
So Andy Dalton who wasnt ranked as high as Goff, came in and won 9 games as a rookie with no experience but Goff couldnt
Sounds like you want to make yourself believe Goff will be a bust, but all analysts say hes the most nfl ready qb in this draft
BlueHeffner
Veteran
Zeke makes us a playoff team and legitimate contender this year. If we want immediate impact, he needs to be the pick
Dwight Howard
Superstar
the more I think about it...why would Jerry come out and say he aint taking a QB if he really werent, wouldn't that kill trade value in a trade down? Im thinking we're gonna take the best defensive player available and try to capitalize off Romo's window.
Yeah, but you have a lot of guys in here blaming the WRs for that. Rightfully so, to a degree, but our replacement QBs won a grand total of 1 game in 12 attempts.
Rell84shots
Veteran
Really? Because those same analysts were saying Wentz was the most ready not too long agoSo a top rookie QB couldnt come in and win 1 game
So Andy Dalton who wasnt ranked as high as Goff, came in and won 9 games as a rookie with no experience but Goff couldnt
Sounds like you want to make yourself believe Goff will be a bust, but all analysts say hes the most nfl ready qb in this draft
. What are you going to do if the Cowboys draft Jack, Elliott or Ramsey? Because they're rated higher than Goff and they're at a position of need as well.
BlueHeffner
Veteran
Really? Because those same analysts were saying Wentz was the most ready not too long ago
Ima
I wouldnt mind any of those players any other year, but we need a QB. Im not tryna go thru the Quincy Carter years again. We witnessed how bad and unwatchable this team is without a QB.
The best time to look for a QB is when you already have a QB. I don't wanna wait until Romo retires to start trying to find his replacment like we did with Aikman
BlueHeffner
Veteran
Quincy Carter
Anthony Wright
Ryan Leaf
Clint Stoener
Chad Hutchinson
Vinny Testaverde
Drew Henson
Anthony Wright
Ryan Leaf
Clint Stoener
Chad Hutchinson
Vinny Testaverde
Drew Henson
Dwight Howard
Superstar
Barnwell: The great Dallas draft debate -- QB or not QB?
Using the No. 4 pick on a quarterback, though? The more you look at the idea, the more it falls apart at the seams. Romo's an incredible quarterback, but his style is so improvisational and unique that it's hard to imagine Carson Wentz or Jared Goff taking much away. Neither of those passers are Romo clones -- outside of Russell Wilson, there's nobody really like Romo in the league. Having longtime backup Garrett around as head coach would be helpful, but we still have no idea whether Garrett is effective at developing quarterbacks; Romo was a Pro Bowler by the time Garrett arrived on staff as offensive coordinator in 2007. That's not to say Garrett can't, just that he hasn't yet.
Even if the Cowboys did take a quarterback, the reality is that Romo's not going anywhere for a while: his contract is unmoveable, either via trade, release, or retirement. Thanks to past contractual missteps and desperate maneuverings to clear out cap space, the Cowboys have needed to restructure Romo's deal twice to convert his base salary into signing bonuses, pushing the cap hit for those deals into the future. That leaves Romo with massive cap hits on the Dallas roster, regardless of whether the Cowboys keep him or get rid of him:
If the Cowboys cut Romo as a post-June 1 release, they would absorb the remaining dead money on their cap the following year; in other words, if the Cowboys cut Romo as a post-June 1 release before the 2017 season, they would owe $10.7 million on their cap in 2017 and the other $8.9 million in 2018. Dallas already has $146.9 million on their cap in 2017, the second-highest figure in football behind Philadelphia, so leaving even $12.7 million in dead money on their cap would be disastrous.
In reality, the earliest the Cowboys can move on from Romo -- assuming that they don't restructure his deal again -- is 2018. They could turn Romo into the most expensive backup QB in the history of pro football, but that's probably not going to happen, either. So if the Cowboys draft a passer, you have to assume that he'll spend a minimum of two seasons serving as a backup and injury replacement before stepping in as the full-time starter in 2018.
Once you get to that point, does it really make sense to take a quarterback fourth? Much of the value of drafting a rookie quarterback comes from the fact that they make a fraction of what quarterback talent costs on the free market, allowing teams to spend elsewhere. Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, and Jameis Winston will each have cap hits between $5.5 million and $6 million this year, just slightly ahead of Josh McCown and Chase Daniel, each of whom will make in the $5 million range.
If your rookie quarterback is sitting behind Romo for two years, you're losing the first two years of that valuable market inefficiency while paying the $5.5 million market value for a backup quarterback. Instead, the Cowboys would really get only two years of below-market salaries and a fifth-year option for 2020, which will be in excess of $20 million by the time we get there.
A successful top-five rookie quarterback who enters the lineup from day one and produces at the league average generates something like $56 million in marginal value over his rookie contract, given that he makes an average of $6 million or so over his first four years and would probably be worth something like $20 million per year for those same deals on the free market. When you consider that years 1, 2, and 5 of a potential rookie deal for Wentz or Goff with the Cowboys probably would be at about market value, the Cowboys could only really expect to get about $28 million of marginal value by taking a quarterback fourth. The numbers here oversimplify the story, but the concept is the same -- Dallas just isn't going to get what a typical team would get out of taking a QB high in the first round.
Using the No. 4 pick on a quarterback, though? The more you look at the idea, the more it falls apart at the seams. Romo's an incredible quarterback, but his style is so improvisational and unique that it's hard to imagine Carson Wentz or Jared Goff taking much away. Neither of those passers are Romo clones -- outside of Russell Wilson, there's nobody really like Romo in the league. Having longtime backup Garrett around as head coach would be helpful, but we still have no idea whether Garrett is effective at developing quarterbacks; Romo was a Pro Bowler by the time Garrett arrived on staff as offensive coordinator in 2007. That's not to say Garrett can't, just that he hasn't yet.
Even if the Cowboys did take a quarterback, the reality is that Romo's not going anywhere for a while: his contract is unmoveable, either via trade, release, or retirement. Thanks to past contractual missteps and desperate maneuverings to clear out cap space, the Cowboys have needed to restructure Romo's deal twice to convert his base salary into signing bonuses, pushing the cap hit for those deals into the future. That leaves Romo with massive cap hits on the Dallas roster, regardless of whether the Cowboys keep him or get rid of him:
If the Cowboys cut Romo as a post-June 1 release, they would absorb the remaining dead money on their cap the following year; in other words, if the Cowboys cut Romo as a post-June 1 release before the 2017 season, they would owe $10.7 million on their cap in 2017 and the other $8.9 million in 2018. Dallas already has $146.9 million on their cap in 2017, the second-highest figure in football behind Philadelphia, so leaving even $12.7 million in dead money on their cap would be disastrous.
In reality, the earliest the Cowboys can move on from Romo -- assuming that they don't restructure his deal again -- is 2018. They could turn Romo into the most expensive backup QB in the history of pro football, but that's probably not going to happen, either. So if the Cowboys draft a passer, you have to assume that he'll spend a minimum of two seasons serving as a backup and injury replacement before stepping in as the full-time starter in 2018.
Once you get to that point, does it really make sense to take a quarterback fourth? Much of the value of drafting a rookie quarterback comes from the fact that they make a fraction of what quarterback talent costs on the free market, allowing teams to spend elsewhere. Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, and Jameis Winston will each have cap hits between $5.5 million and $6 million this year, just slightly ahead of Josh McCown and Chase Daniel, each of whom will make in the $5 million range.
If your rookie quarterback is sitting behind Romo for two years, you're losing the first two years of that valuable market inefficiency while paying the $5.5 million market value for a backup quarterback. Instead, the Cowboys would really get only two years of below-market salaries and a fifth-year option for 2020, which will be in excess of $20 million by the time we get there.
A successful top-five rookie quarterback who enters the lineup from day one and produces at the league average generates something like $56 million in marginal value over his rookie contract, given that he makes an average of $6 million or so over his first four years and would probably be worth something like $20 million per year for those same deals on the free market. When you consider that years 1, 2, and 5 of a potential rookie deal for Wentz or Goff with the Cowboys probably would be at about market value, the Cowboys could only really expect to get about $28 million of marginal value by taking a quarterback fourth. The numbers here oversimplify the story, but the concept is the same -- Dallas just isn't going to get what a typical team would get out of taking a QB high in the first round.