a whole lot to process here - I wanted to make a thread on this when I first started seeing the coverage but haven't had the time, here are my quick thoughts:
- France is cutting off aid to Burkina Faso explicitly because their neocolonial control of the nation is in crisis (Burkina Faso has had three coups in the last three years)
- While this is not a socialist or communist revolution by any means, it is what Fanon and Rodney refer to as a nationalist revolution (bourgeois, depending on who the beneficiaries are to be);
- This is one of the most pronounced statements of solidarity between African nations that I've seen in decades, and has captured at least some of the world's attention;
- This places the West and their African allies in a very bad place - either you follow through with military action and face humiliation through a drawn out guerilla war, or you negotiate away some power;
- Nigeria is in no state to go to war;
- The attempt to point to Russia as a key component of this is pretty absurd, while the Wagner Group has a presence in a few places (namely Mali), AFRICOM is a vastly more influential powerbroker and outstrips any private mercenary groups both in influence, strength, manpower, direction, and ability.
- A lot more thoughts I'll try to put down once I read through this thread
Great post.
On your 6th point: I was listening to a Geopolitics space on Twitter yesterday & a Nigerian (presumably from Northern Nigeria due to his name & accent) claimed that what happened in Niger was actually a coup within a coup (I don’t know how true it’s). He claimed France sponsored the initial coup cos the deposed president made a statement about revising the uranium deal & also cited a BBC interview he did last year or so. And as the initial coup (French sponsored one) started, the armed forces refused to join unless it’s a coup that will serve their national interests & not the French one. Subsequently, an agreement was reached to go for national interests hence the deposed president wasn’t killed & why the country’s armed forces didn’t show any resistance. (Disclaimer: I don’t know how true this is).
Also, there are reports (from French sources) that French Special Forces were meant to intervene (presumably when the initial coup failed or protect the deposed president as alleged by French for sources) but Marcon told them to stand down cos it would look colonial. I’ve also seen reports about Niger’s armed forces not being too happy with the deposed president & France in their fight against Jihadists with claims that every time they locate jihadist hideouts - the deposed president would ask them to seek approval from the French before attacking. And by the time the approval arrives, all the jihadists would’ve escaped.
Yes, Russia isn’t involved any of the coups in WA. Russia became a player with the putschist as a ‘protection umbrella’ against western countries. Coups aren’t cheap & they cost a lot of money. You need to spend a lot of money, know the terrain & have a good network with important players in these places to sponsor a coup. And Russia doesn’t have an expansive presence in the region, apart from the Wagnerites in Mali (I think Burkina Faso as well).
It’s also not coincidental that all the putschists, from Mali, to Burkina Faso, to Guinea (Conakry) & now Niger were all trained by AFRICOM. And this is basically why I don’t want to jump out of the window yet & label them full nationalists fighting for their people (albeit I lean more towards that right now). Were they all coups within coups for national interests or just psyops for something bigger? - still observing.